ajr Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 44 minutes ago, Jon said: 6z GEFS individual members. Control in the upper left would be fine with a lot of folks. What time period is the bulk of snowfall getting modeled? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 So is the control run panel the operational run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 8 minutes ago, CaryWx said: So is the control run panel the operational run? I believe it's the op run, re-run at a lower resolution, which is then used to build the rest of suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 Well sounds like the Weeklies kinda went neutral to meh last night. CFS still looks pretty good through February. Wonder if it'll keep this look through the end of next week/end of month. Still think things won't be terrible through the month, just going to have depend on great timing, as usual I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 1 hour ago, Jon said: 6z GEFS individual members. Control in the upper left would be fine with a lot of folks. Those look kind of blah, after how the last ones look for the last storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Those look kind of blah, after how the last ones look for the last storm! All the pretty maps for the last storm did was give you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: All the pretty maps for the last storm did was give you True story! I don't like to count on my rain, till I see the whites of its eyes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 5 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: All the pretty maps for the last storm did was give you Plus those were like 1 day out as opposed to 16 days out...we have 16 more reasons for it not to work this time as opposed to 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 4 minutes ago, griteater said: Plus those were like 1 day out as opposed to 16 days out...we have 16 more reasons for it not to work this time as opposed to 1 Haha +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 Looking at the 6z gefs maps posted above it reminds me of something Larry pointed out yesterday. At 500mb you need those lines over your back yard with some south orientation not due west or NW. South of west is how you score winter weather. What he was explaining to someone is if you keep studying the 500mb maps youll notice the trough axis needs to be just a tick to your west so you can get some sw flow. This probably is a net result of how/where the ridge sets up in the pac. Anyway Ive noticed and he's pointed out 2 trends seem to be showing up. 1st is the NW flow /clipper parade with ns stream energy which is a bonus for nwfs folks, but the next fertile ground is shapping up to be the coastal plain areas espeacilly NC. reason is is the trough/ 500mb bareley gets them in a southwest flow. This would promote one of these clippers/ns having time for a late phase off the SE atlantic coast as oppossed to gom. Most poster on here need a eastern GOM phase/interaction with the 2 streams to score. So food for thought when going forward is to see exactly where the axis on 500mb is setting up on ensembels and that will be the biggest clue who has the window of opportunity coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 The last 2 GFS Para runs were decent (18z and 00z). They both have a couple of decent northern stream waves drop down out of central Canada...then kick out a wave from the SW states toward the end of the run in concert with a cold high to the north...with a suppressed low in the gulf. Here's the second of the 2 northern stream waves on the 00z Para The eastern trough and western ridge axes have been trending west on the GFS Ensemble Mean, which is what we want to see for better storm chances with the waves dropping out of Canada. No way in the world the models will be able to resolve the details of the specific short waves dropping down into the eastern trough, but they WILL be able to resolve the trends in the large scale ridge/trough placement. The GFS suite is the farthest west with the ridge/trough...then GEPS...with the Euro farthest east. We now need the GEFS to be correct Also, the GFS Superensemble analogs continue to boast dates close to some of the better northern stream diving storms we've seen over the years, with 3 that dropped 5+ inches of snow at RDU (Feb 1996, Jan 2009, Jan 1965). The Jan '65 storm is one of the best northern stream divers I know of in the record books (along with Jan 2003)...it dropped 10.3 inches of snow in Charlotte, 10-15 in Hickory/Lenoir. The Feb 7, 1968 storm on the list (2/10/68 is the analog date) dropped 3.5 inches in Savannah. Does that mean we will get a good storm? Of course not, but at least the pattern on the GEFS offers some level of hope for getting a northern stream diving storm. Here's the trend on the GFS Ens over the past 9 runs with the ridge/trough trending west... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 Anallogs and clippers!! Good times! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 45 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Looking at the 6z gefs maps posted above it reminds me of something Larry pointed out yesterday. At 500mb you need those lines over your back yard with some south orientation not due west or NW. South of west is how you score winter weather. What he was explaining to someone is if you keep studying the 500mb maps youll notice the trough axis needs to be just a tick to your west so you can get some sw flow. This probably is a net result of how/where the ridge sets up in the pac. Anyway Ive noticed and he's pointed out 2 trends seem to be showing up. 1st is the NW flow /clipper parade with ns stream energy which is a bonus for nwfs folks, but the next fertile ground is shapping up to be the coastal plain areas espeacilly NC. reason is is the trough/ 500mb bareley gets them in a southwest flow. This would promote one of these clippers/ns having time for a late phase off the SE atlantic coast as oppossed to gom. Most poster on here need a eastern GOM phase/interaction with the 2 streams to score. So food for thought when going forward is to see exactly where the axis on 500mb is setting up on ensembels and that will be the biggest clue who has the window of opportunity coming up. yes, agree, good post....at the higher end of the scale, you want to see one of those waves dive down and bottom out and/or close off over the 'southern' TN Valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 GFS has a huge trough develop over a large portion of the U.S. last few days of Jan. Closed high off PNW coast / closed low over Great Lakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, griteater said: GFS has a huge trough develop over a large portion of the U.S. last few days of Jan. Closed high off PNW coast / closed low over Great Lakes And a good looking potential system dropping through west Texas on 1/31. Looks to be suppressed right now though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 12 minutes ago, packfan98 said: And a good looking potential system dropping through west Texas on 1/31. Looks to be suppressed right now though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 3 minutes ago, griteater said: We might even get snow with that look!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 10 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: We might even get snow with that look!? You know the drill, rain south of 85. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 Love the potential that is showing up at the end of the month on the GFS. Yeah, it missed the exact location of the snow around here with the last storm, but potential is the best the models can show anyway. Too many variables involved for them to get the exact amount of snow and location perfect, and the smallest things can make a big difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 44 minutes ago, packfan98 said: And a good looking potential system dropping through west Texas on 1/31. Looks to be suppressed right now though. Well thats a good thing right now that it is suppressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 1 minute ago, fritschy said: Well thats a good thing right now that it is suppressed Y'all remember last storm, and we all said , atleast we don't have to worry about cold air!??? Ahh , the good old days, when warm noses and NW trends, were nonexistent! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 06 gfs para Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boknows34 Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 ^^^ Oh my ^^^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 3 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said: 06 gfs para Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 4 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said: 06 gfs para That is really what an old fashioned Southern snow used to look like!!! And there's a wedge sig out in front! She's a beaut Clark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 6 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: That is really what an old fashioned Southern snow used to look like!!! And there's a wedge sig out in front! She's a beaut Clark This is what a good old fashion in situ cad looks like with a retreating high right before the precip moves in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 No kidding that 1040+ sitting over western Pa. says; "YES! It will be cold." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 1 minute ago, CaryWx said: No kidding that 1040+ sitting over western Pa. says; "YES! It will be cold." Then it says see ya as it exits the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said: That is really what an old fashioned Southern snow used to look like!!! And there's a wedge sig out in front! She's a beaut Clark That's how you get snow south of I-85..look at that high placement..the sad thing is when the storm finally gets here, that high will be halfway to Portugal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 1 hour ago, Cold Rain said: This is what a good old fashion in situ cad looks like with a retreating high right before the precip moves in. But there would be surface temps in the teens at RDU. The in situ cad would work. **talking hypothetically at hour 384 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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