packbacker Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 EPS control with a Apps to MA throttling day 12-13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 21 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: This is has got to be some kind of record for the lamest fading Nina ever having moderate/strong Nina characteristics. You know how to bait me to go look don't you? I can't stand it, I have to. I'm pitiful. For neg neutral and weak nina winters (DJFM), there are some warm ones with -QBO. But with +QBO, they are all either near normal or slightly below normal with temps (10 total winters). So yea, we are overperforming on the warm side just based on that. AO and NAO aren't helping us. I computed this the other day...the averaged daily sum of the AO+NAO for Dec 1 to Jan 15 is the 16th highest out of 67 years back to 1951. 2012, 2014, and 2015 are all in the top 12 in that list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 ^ Correction - 2012, 2014, and 2015 are all in the top 12 in that list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 5 minutes ago, griteater said: ^ Correction - 2012, 2014, and 2015 are all in the top 12 in that list. Well we're just on ourselves a nice little streak here with blocking aren't we? <said in Church Lady voice> That's horrible. We find every way to screw it up. Thanks for looking that up! Appreciate your frequent research here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 10 minutes ago, packbacker said: EPS control with a Apps to MA throttling day 12-13. So the control run drives a shortwave south into ArkLaTex and closes it off over the upper south. That's the kind of thing that would yield a bigger storm in this pattern. There was one other EPS member with big totals, but otherwise pretty skimpy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 I saw no GEFS members with any appreciable snow in the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: I saw no GEFS members with any appreciable snow in the SE. Winter cancel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 4 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: Winter cancel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 5 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: I saw no GEFS members with any appreciable snow in the SE. 3 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: Winter cancel I think it just shows at this point our cold end of January will be dry. I'm still quite hopeful later in February somehow yields better chances of southern storms. Mid February usually brings it the last few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 1 hour ago, packbacker said: EPS control with a Apps to MA throttling day 12-13. guys are crying winter is over and look at this, not hardly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Hello 18Z GFS , I think I love you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 feb 2nd if it don't suppress. gets in single digits morning of feb 3rd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broken024 Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Snow in Florida at 360 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 2 minutes ago, broken024 said: Snow in Florida at 360 Right where we want it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 22 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said: feb 2nd if it don't suppress. gets in single digits morning of feb 3rd Bag this up. I'll Take it!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broken024 Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 27 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Right where we want it! I prefer Jamaica Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 How come no update on the weeklies? Are they so awesome it's taking longer? Yes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 18 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: How come no update on the weeklies? Are they so awesome it's taking longer? Yes! Full fledged +PNA until Feb 3, then it breaks down as there's no blocking and the east coast trough slides out. Zonal pattern until Feb 10 when EC trough returns, again sliding out quickly. Trough returns yet again Feb 16, slides out. In between these dates appears to be nationwide AN temps so no lock in pattern here. The weeklies themselves will probably look warm when they come out, but it seems like we will get these cold/warm/cold/warm type patterns for the rest of our winter and that's really no surprise. If we lock into any sustained cold that would be incredible given how the winter has progressed so far, the base state, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 16 minutes ago, Jon said: Full fledged +PNA until Feb 3, then it breaks down as there's no blocking and the east coast trough slides out. Zonal pattern until Feb 10 when EC trough returns, again sliding out quickly. Trough returns yet again Feb 16, slides out. In between these dates appears to be nationwide AN temps so no lock in pattern here. The weeklies themselves will probably look warm when they come out, but it seems like we will get these cold/warm/cold/warm type patterns for the rest of our winter and that's really no surprise. If we lock into any sustained cold that would be incredible given how the winter has progressed so far, the base state, etc. Thanks Jon, for the knife to the jugular! I thought with these magical SSW events and rainbows and lollipops, we were just going to have a blockbuster Feb and I don't think 2-3 day cold shots , are going to git-r-done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 Ok I'm going to ask a question here that may bring a chorus of hiss & jeers. Can anyone tell me what the Farmers Almanac says for February in the southeast? i know that's probably like going to a Trek Convention and saying; "Hey I really thought the Wesely character in NG was awesome!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 1 hour ago, broken024 said: I prefer Jamaica Terra del fuego is too far north for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 3 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Terra del fuego is too far north for us. You prefer somewhere over the Amazon river basin? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broken024 Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, CaryWx said: You prefer somewhere over the Amazon river basin? Buenos Aires ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 Not surprised the "consistent" EPS weeklies caved. Nice snowy run by the the 18z GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 3 minutes ago, packbacker said: Not surprised the "consistent" EPS weeklies caved. Nice snowy run by the the 18z GEFS. I have always said the weeklies are terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 4 minutes ago, packbacker said: Not surprised the "consistent" EPS weeklies caved. Nice snowy run by the the 18z GEFS. yeah the 18z gfs wasn't bad at all. it was close more than once to a phase between days 7-12. The 18z gefs reflects the possibilities just a touch later vs the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said: Thanks Jon, for the knife to the jugular! I thought with these magical SSW events and rainbows and lollipops, we were just going to have a blockbuster Feb and I don't think 2-3 day cold shots , are going to git-r-done I see talk of ridges and troughs and stratospheric warmings and euro weeklies, etc, but I haven't seen anyone expecting/forecasting a blockbuster Feb. Where is that coming from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 2 hours ago, broken024 said: Snow in Florida at 360 That's a map I haven't seen, and if I do, please ship me some tequila Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 5 minutes ago, griteater said: I see talk of ridges and troughs and stratospheric warmings and euro weeklies, etc, but I haven't seen anyone expecting/forecasting a blockbuster Feb. Where is that coming from? Mostly JB, and I'm ashamed! Says he's been calling for a cold Feb, since July Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 1 hour ago, CaryWx said: Ok I'm going to ask a question here that may bring a chorus of hiss & jeers. Can anyone tell me what the Farmers Almanac says for February in the southeast? i know that's probably like going to a Trek Convention and saying; "Hey I really thought the Wesely character in NG was awesome!" Hey what was wrong with Wesley?! I do not remember exactly what the Almanac said, but I am pretty sure there weren't more than a couple of minor, unremarkable mentions of snow outside of the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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