packfan98 Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 2 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: GEFS seems like it wants to retrograde the pacific ridge west at the end of the run, which would be no good. You can see the trough try to set back up west again and heights building the SE. I think a quick several day window opens for something wintry at the end of January/early Feb, but I'm worried the door closes pretty quick first week in February. That's unless that crazy awesome CFS look with blocking comes to fruition, but not seeing that on the ensembles yet. What will our strat warming do for us this year? Hmmm. JB says that the GEFS bias will try to retrograde west at the end of each run. We'll see I guess. Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 7h7 hours ago GEFS 3 days ago for 18z Thursday vs now days of the western trough are over after Jan 25, tho its error will try to go it it every day 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 2 minutes ago, packfan98 said: JB says that the GEFS bias will try to retrograde west at the end of each run. We'll see I guess. Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 7h7 hours ago GEFS 3 days ago for 18z Thursday vs now days of the western trough are over after Jan 25, tho its error will try to go it it every day 15 Yeah, anything's on the table at this point. Man, you go into the MA thread and they see no hope. Seems like the best case scenario is end of January but it's cold and dry, shutout pattern. Wonder why they think it's going to be so dry? I understand northern stream systems are tough to get south, but it seems like with the SOI plummetting and some split flow showing up on the models we'd have a chance at an activated STJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 7 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: Yeah, anything's on the table at this point. Man, you go into the MA thread and they see no hope. Seems like the best case scenario is end of January but it's cold and dry, shutout pattern. Wonder why they think it's going to be so dry? I understand northern stream systems are tough to get south, but it seems like with the SOI plummetting and some split flow showing up on the models we'd have a chance at an activated STJ. The very easy answer to that question is that the GFS is not showing any LR fantasy storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 I like the trends of the CFS and looks similar to past cold/snowy Feb nina composite. Of course this does differ from the favored +PNA pattern the EPS/weeklies are showing. If the CFS is still showing this pattern end of next week for Feb it would be even more interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonesing for a chase Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Hmm, today's Euro trying to throw out some excitement at the end of the run, might be a little warm but quite a storm there. Of course this is still way out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 10 minutes ago, Jonesing for a chase said: Hmm, today's Euro trying to throw out some excitement at the end of the run, might be a little warm but quite a storm there. Of course this is still way out there we are calling it a paste job. looks pretty though...and check out that high out west...above 1050 I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Euro has a 980mb sfc low over the upstate at 1AM Monday. 4-5 inches of QPF for SC and up into W NC...more in GA. If correct, shetley drought takes a hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 53 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: GEFS seems like it wants to retrograde the pacific ridge west at the end of the run, which would be no good. You can see the trough try to set back up west again and heights building the SE. I think a quick several day window opens for something wintry at the end of January/early Feb, but I'm worried the door closes pretty quick first week in February. That's unless that crazy awesome CFS look with blocking comes to fruition, but not seeing that on the ensembles yet. What will our strat warming do for us this year? Hmmm. Yeah you can see the bias in the images and post I made on the previous page. GEFS has done this FOREVER...it can't "SEE" the cold east so it tries to dig a ridge somewhere and hange the trough west, most likely not going to happen...but we were stuck in a similar pattern earlier this winter, so anything IS possible. Just agree with JB, seems like the GEFS bias at this point. --folks talking about the NE forum, they see the deep cold sig coming, it means suppression for them...no fun. For us, we can squeak one out. But even I'm getting nervous, these are big cold signals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 And if the polar vortex does press down towards the Great Lakes later on in February, the storm tracks could go further on south and catch almost everyone in the SE. Keep your fingers crossed the STJ keeps the moisture around. It's way too early for the MA folks to give up hope. Right now, the track looks to be suppressed. We know how that usually turns out. Also, what goes down must come back up eventually. The beginning and end of a pattern is a great time to score. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 38 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: The very easy answer to that question is that the GFS is not showing any LR fantasy storms. For us in the SE, we have to focus so much on just getting a window where temps are supportive for wintry as the top priority....and rightly so. Enjoyed your earlier posts CR, especially the cat reference. You are like the voice of reason in the SE forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Good run today on the strat side of things by the Euro.It's got a nice MMW(major midwinter warming) showing up now inside day 10,giving more weight to what the GFS has been spitting out. Just an observation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Most of you are too young to remember 92/93 winter. Back end loaded and man what a finish! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 It looks like we will go into a below normal temp window...but it's hard to tell how long it will last. I don't think anyone can have a clear answer on that. The latest ensembles and weeklies show a cold window, but then hint at a full latitude trough in eastern N America, but with the core of the cold with the tropospheric PV hanging out well north, to the NE of Hudson Bay. We would likely need a piece of that dislodged farther south as we go out in time....time will tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 4 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said: Good run today on the strat side of things by the Euro.It's got a nice MMW(major midwinter warming) showing up now inside day 10,giving more weight to what the GFS has been spitting out. Just an observation. And this is what we would help with getting more of that bottled up cold farther south....thanks Dirty Harry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 9 minutes ago, griteater said: Euro has a 980mb sfc low over the upstate at 1AM Monday. 4-5 inches of QPF for SC and up into W NC...more in GA. If correct, shetley drought takes a hit The Euro looks crazy with that low for sure. I can't remember when we have had a 980mb low around here. If that verifies, wind could become a big issue as well on Monday. The GFS has a fairly strong low here in the southeast too I think. If that low went about 200 miles northwest of the current Euro track and was 6-8 hours slower NC and SC would possibly have a decent severe weather outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: And this is what we would help with getting more of that bottled up cold farther south....thanks Dirty Harry Yep. The GFS doesn't go out far enough to see how far down the PV is going to drop. Looks like it should be far enough to keep some of us in the game for a good while in February. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 8 minutes ago, CentralNC said: Most of you are too young to remember 92/93 winter. Back end loaded and man what a finish! Yeah what a finish to that winter for 75% of us. The superstorm only gave my area around 3-4 inches of snow, but MANY of us were measuring snow in feet from that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 8 minutes ago, jshetley said: The Euro looks crazy with that low for sure. I can't remember when we have had a 980mb low around here. If that verifies, wind could become a big issue as well on Monday. The GFS has a fairly strong low here in the southeast too I think. If that low went about 200 miles northwest of the current Euro track and was 6-8 hours slower NC and SC would possibly have a decent severe weather outbreak. I can't either other than Mar '93...also, the Mar '84 tornadic outbreak had a 980mb low over E NC. BTW, the Euro QPF I referenced was for the full 10 day period...via multiple SE lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 32 minutes ago, griteater said: For us in the SE, we have to focus so much on just getting a window where temps are supportive for wintry as the top priority....and rightly so. Enjoyed your earlier posts CR, especially the cat reference. You are like the voice of reason in the SE forum. Thanks Grit! It's hard to stay sane in the SE during winter. We've teetered on the verge again this winter. Re: Feb, things *seem* to be coming together for more than a transient cold shot, but we know how that often goes. For now, we watch and wait.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 7 minutes ago, griteater said: I can't either other than Mar '93...also, the Mar '84 tornadic outbreak had a 980mb low over E NC. BTW, the Euro QPF I referenced was for the full 10 day period...via multiple SE lows. The pattern for the next 7-10 days is beginning to look a lot like Feb and March of 1990. These systems seem to be more progressive than those though. If the Euro and GFS are right, the drought might not be gone, but it would take a serious beating down. I thought this would happen, but I was thinking March and April though for the heavy rains and storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Storm analogs are for losers like me (and definitely not for folks like Mack), but the top analog for the 8-14 day period from the 00z GFS Superensemble (avg of last 4 gfs ens runs) and 12z GFS Op is Jan 17-18, 2009 which was right before the 'super clipper' that brought a good snow to parts of NC. The 12z GFS definitely had that look to it. There are other analog dates in there that were close to prior storm dates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 30 minutes ago, griteater said: Storm analogs are for losers like me (and definitely not for folks like Mack), but the top analog for the 8-14 day period from the 00z GFS Superensemble (avg of last 4 gfs ens runs) and 12z GFS Op is Jan 17-18, 2009 which was right before the 'super clipper' that brought a good snow to parts of NC. The 12z GFS definitely had that look to it. There are other analog dates in there that were close to prior storm dates. I like the 500 map analog but I don't much like the storm analog...must have been a late bloomer. Don't know what to do at this point other than to come back Monday to see where we are. I think we may need to follow the PV warming event close to see if what we get in February hangs around or is transient. So far everything has been transient, on the move back and forth. Hate trying to bet against the winter pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 43 minutes ago, griteater said: Storm analogs are for losers like me (and definitely not for folks like Mack), but the top analog for the 8-14 day period from the 00z GFS Superensemble (avg of last 4 gfs ens runs) and 12z GFS Op is Jan 17-18, 2009 which was right before the 'super clipper' that brought a good snow to parts of NC. The 12z GFS definitely had that look to it. There are other analog dates in there that were close to prior storm dates. I totally forgot about that storm. I think that was the day Obama was inaugurated ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 47 minutes ago, griteater said: Storm analogs are for losers like me (and definitely not for folks like Mack), but the top analog for the 8-14 day period from the 00z GFS Superensemble (avg of last 4 gfs ens runs) and 12z GFS Op is Jan 17-18, 2009 which was right before the 'super clipper' that brought a good snow to parts of NC. The 12z GFS definitely had that look to it. There are other analog dates in there that were close to prior storm dates. Proves the point that sometimes it is good to be in SE Wake County.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 EPS/GEPS show similar hemispheric pattern day 15. Building Aleutian ridge and scand. ridge, we want those to connect, shove the PV south. 6z CFS weekly showed this as does the monthly mean on the lastest CFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 2 minutes ago, FallsLake said: Proves the point that sometimes it is good to be in SE Wake County.... Blind squirrel and stuff....! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonesing for a chase Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 21 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: I totally forgot about that storm. I think that was the day Obama was inaugurated ? Yes that's the one, remember it well. Another one of those " out of nowhere" storms at RDU, clipper appeared on models maybe a day or two before, but no more than one or two inches were expected and we got six inches of fluff. Nice surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 35 minutes ago, packbacker said: EPS/GEPS show similar hemispheric pattern day 15. Building Aleutian ridge and scand. ridge, we want those to connect, shove the PV south. 6z CFS weekly showed this as does the monthly mean on the lastest CFS. Kind of looks like we get a +PNA ridge spike for a few days, then a -EPO ridge spike. All depends on the details (ridge placement / trop PV placement / pattern longevity), but it's a pretty good look overall. Plenty of ways for it to fail/collapse though, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Euro Control run has that Manitoba Mauler / Super Clipper look to it at day 11 (same look as Euro and GFS Op). If nothing else, the NC to WV skiing should improve next weekend into the following week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 47 minutes ago, packbacker said: EPS/GEPS show similar hemispheric pattern day 15. Building Aleutian ridge and scand. ridge, we want those to connect, shove the PV south. 6z CFS weekly showed this as does the monthly mean on the lastest CFS. Nice and heart-shaped cool pool! Bringing the love for Valentine's Day , Timmmay style!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.