NCSNOW Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 7 minutes ago, Wow said: It was always brutally cold. Here, it was in the teens and low 20s during the heart of it. Was only 4 at the time but I remember it well! I was in college and had to head back to wcu from down east a few days latter. Felt like I was riding in New England all the way back with snow plowed up along the interstate. The flakes in that storm where very numerous but only quater sized. It was like a constant heavy shower, very powdery. You couldn't even make snowballs even down east. Wasn't so much the 850s where cold but the surface layer was shallow true artic air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Does anybody remember what "The Wolf" told Vincent and Jules when things were starting to look up in Pulp Fiction? Let's keep our heads about us.Lol. Not losing my head and I don't buy this 100%, just saying it goes both ways Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 20 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: First legit snow storm on the models in several years. Love it! Thanks WOW for the map. Weird, it has been a while since we even seen one of these. Save it cause in 6 hrs it'll be different, gone. Use to get them every 6 hours it seemed like. Times are tough when your fantasy snow is down over 90% for the season on the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 22 minutes ago, Wow said: better view. Crazy numbers for W NC/VA Is this just the GFS operational? Are any of the other models/ensembles hinting at this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 4 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Is this just the GFS operational? Are any of the other models/ensembles hinting at this? The 0z Euro is showing a less extreme event 2 days before this one with widespread Tennessee/North Carolina snow. These are showing the potential of the pattern that is being shown on the models. Can't really take any of these solutions as more than that for the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 That's a thing of beauty right there. Nice to see fantasy snow pop up for this time period off and on from various models. I have no doubt it disappears on the next run but I think we've seen enough to know we have a chance around the end of the first week in January. Best you can hope for at this point. I hate that seeing that makes me feel so good though. I'm such a loser. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Is this just the GFS operational? Are any of the other models/ensembles hinting at this? 12z gefs is all in Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Just now, John1122 said: The 0z Euro is showing a less extreme event 2 days before this one with widespread Tennessee/North Carolina snow. These are showing the potential of the pattern that is being shown on the models. Can't really take any of these solutions as more than that for the next few days. Fair enough. It doesn't hurt to salivate over some fantasy maps every once and a while. In general, are the GFS and Euro in agreement that the pattern is becoming more wintry int he SE. And by wintry I mean 40s and low 50s instead of 60s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 2 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Is this just the GFS operational? Are any of the other models/ensembles hinting at this? I haven't seen the ensembles come out yet. However, this is not your typical fantasy storm. The percentages for this one is a little higher than most at that range just due to the cold air that we have to work with. With that being said, a lot can go wrong at this range. I give it a 10% chance of a winter storm of some kind affecting us during this time-frame but, only a 1 or 2% chance of a Jan 88 repeat. Now, obviously if this was within 5 days, the odds would be considerable higher. Let's reel this one in... P.S. I saved those snowfall GIFs for verification later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 6 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Is this just the GFS operational? Are any of the other models/ensembles hinting at this? Yes at H5 there is a very strong signal, evidence that the opportunity exist during this time frame to score one. Can't get caught up, or juke by the surface maps off the operational models. This is just one of many possible scenerios. You have to look for trends and it's kinda like building a court case. As you get closer in time you'll see a case made why this window of time has potential and at times why it doesnt. So you zero in from the outside (5H) in (surface, micro climate, mby). Good news is at the moment alot of ens and models are showing the possibility of a pattern conducive to generating winter precip. About all we can ask for 7 to 10 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 12z GEFS looks much more like the Euro by 240 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 3 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: That's a thing of beauty right there. Nice to see fantasy snow pop up for this time period off and on from various models. I have no doubt it disappears on the next run but I think we've seen enough to know we have a chance around the end of the first week in January. Best you can hope for at this point. I hate that seeing that makes me feel so good though. I'm such a loser. Not a loser at all- a great model run definitely puts me in a good mood as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 12z GFS Ensemble individual members are pretty meh. Some have wintry and a lot of close calls via one or 2 waves...I probably view them with a pessimistic eye though knowing that the north climb is inevitable. I want to see every member with snow from Hattiesburg to Myrtle Beach at this timeframe, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 1 minute ago, cbmclean said: Fair enough. It doesn't hurt to salivate over some fantasy maps every once and a while. In general, are the GFS and Euro in agreement that the pattern is becoming more wintry int he SE. And by wintry I mean 40s and low 50s instead of 60s? If the pattern progresses as modeled, there should be at least a week of very cold weather. Temps struggle to leave the 30s North of the Central Gulf Coast states with most of TN/NC struggling to get out of the 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 2 minutes ago, griteater said: 12z GFS Ensemble individual members are pretty meh. Some have wintry and a lot of close calls via one or 2 waves...I'm probably view them with a pessimistic eye though knowing that the north climb is inevitable. I want to see every member with snow from Hattiesburg to Myrtle Beach at this timeframe, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 The members are less impressive than the operational and I think that is because the op is our PERFECT scenario. That is as good as it gets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 7 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Yes at H5 there is a very strong signal, evidence that the opportunity exist during this time frame to score one. Can't get caught up, or juke by the surface maps off the operational models. This is just one of many possible scenerios. You have to look for trends and it's kinda like building a court case. As you get closer in time you'll see a case made why this window of time has potential and at times why it doesnt. So you zero in from the outside (5H) in (surface, micro climate, mby). Good news is at the moment alot of ens and models are showing the possibility of a pattern conducive to generating winter precip. About all we can ask for 7 to 10 days out. I still have much to learn. What is "H5"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 11 minutes ago, griteater said: 12z GFS Ensemble individual members are pretty meh. Some have wintry and a lot of close calls via one or 2 waves...I probably view them with a pessimistic eye though knowing that the north climb is inevitable. I want to see every member with snow from Hattiesburg to Myrtle Beach at this timeframe, lol I think we are dealing with 2 waves here one next Thurs/Fri and the second Sun/Mon. Both thanks to artic front stalling along GC. So how this all shakes out with overuning, 2 seperate 1000mb waves not sure. But I do like the orientation of the flow, west to east and no signal that let's one of these waves bomb and spin up miller A fashion and become a inland runner up the coast. MBY wins in those scenerios alot but also looses as many. Don't want to take that risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 11 minutes ago, griteater said: 12z GFS Ensemble individual members are pretty meh. Some have wintry and a lot of close calls via one or 2 waves...I probably view them with a pessimistic eye though knowing that the north climb is inevitable. I want to see every member with snow from Hattiesburg to Myrtle Beach at this timeframe, lol Kind of surprised that was the worst run of the members for mean snowfall. Trend has been to lower heights in the SE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 CMC ensembles want nothing to do with the transient NAO...EPS for the tiebreaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Matthew East is also highlighting January 6-10 as a period to watch...seems like he's been doing it for a little bit now. Toward the end of today's video. http://mattheweast.blogspot.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 1 hour ago, MichaelJ said: Don't want to quote it because it would take up a lot of space but the -EPO post above by Jon is excellent, a 5* post for sure, well done sir Thank you sir! Overall excited about this pattern, we'll see what the Euro brings us here in the next hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 27 minutes ago, packbacker said: CMC ensembles want nothing to do with the transient NAO...EPS for the tiebreaker. Packbacker, I have been reading about Ensembles in general. I have seen "EPS" used to stand for "Ensemble Prediction System". Here you seem to be referring to a specific model. Is it the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 4 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Packbacker, I have been reading about Ensembles in general. I have seen "EPS" used to stand for "Ensemble Prediction System". Here you seem to be referring to a specific model. Is it the Euro? Yep...GEFS is GFS, GEPS is CMC(canadian) and EPS is Euro's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 47 minutes ago, cbmclean said: I still have much to learn. What is "H5"? If really want to see what a storm is going to do or understand the pattern looking at the 500mb charts is the way to go. it shows the state of the over all pattern. we like blue over us and red up above us. the other way around is not pleasant if you like winter. the surface is another matter entirely but usually matches what's happening at H5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Playing around with past winter storms that resembled anything close to this upcoming modeled potential (day 9-13)...the Feb 2014 period is probably the closest but 62 and 82 had some similarities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 FWIW, that is a very nice GEFS H5 look today. Very nice indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 1 hour ago, cbmclean said: I still have much to learn. What is "H5"? H5 is just a fast way of saying 500mb heights. the maps you see posted talking about "blocking" with reds and blues etc are 500mb generally. usually, 500mb maps are better to use versus surface maps from a model to get a true idea of what is happening. noaa definition is: Quote 500 millibar level height (in a standard atmosphere this is near 5,500 meters (18,000 ft) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Looking pretty good on the Euro out to 192. Cold air starting to make enrodes in the SE and energy rounding the corner in the far SW U.S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Euro stronger with the first wave in the SW. Also more of the 50/50 low in place by 192 hrs. GFS squashed this one and took the next wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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