FallsLake Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 27 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: @fallslake, I can tell you what wins that race 99.99999999999993/4 of the time!!! Rain! But you're saying there's a chance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 21 minutes ago, FallsLake said: But you're saying there's a chance? If pack says cold, you better buy two sleds and an extra chord of wood! How's the GEFS looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 JB's daily summary is dealing with the pattern change and analogs. http://www.weatherbell.com/#premium Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 18 minutes ago, packfan98 said: JB's daily summary is dealing with the pattern change and analogs. http://www.weatherbell.com/#premium Paywall. Thumbsdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 30 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: If pack says cold, you better buy two sleds and an extra chord of wood! How's the GEFS looking? Good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 I think things are looking pretty good for at least a period of cold in the beginning of February. How long it lasts, who knows. I'd like to get confirmation on the SOI crashing because that's usually the missing ingredient for the STJ cranking up and getting us southern storms. If we can get a prolonged +PNA/-EPO with an active STJ we'll be in business. Hopefully the canadian ridging will be enough to keep them south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 5 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: I think things are looking pretty good for at least a period of cold in the beginning of February. How long it lasts, who knows. I'd like to get confirmation on the SOI crashing because that's usually the missing ingredient for the STJ cranking up and getting us southern storms. If we can get a prolonged +PNA/-EPO with an active STJ we'll be in business. Hopefully the canadian ridging will be enough to keep them south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 14 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Paywall. Thumbsdown. No, the daily update is free. Just scroll down a bit, and you can see the video. I usually watch it. They also post it on their facebook page daily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 1 minute ago, packfan98 said: No, the daily update is free. Just scroll down a bit, and you can see the video. I usually watch it. They also post it on their facebook page daily. Aaah gotcha!! User error. Thumbsup! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Here's the last image from that free video, Packfan (hopefully, Jon can confirm...he's the CFS man). It appears to be the 500mb depiction from the latest run of the CFS for Feb. Looks pretty good to me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 I think I said it yesterday or the day before, and I know people want to look at tropical tidbits and see if each GFS run produces a winter storm, but I'd caution against seeing good setups that far out...analyzing whether or not there's enough cold, etc on a 300+ hour model run of the Op GFS will only let you down until the Op starts agreeing with it's ensembles. Here's the 5-day mean of the GEFS...notice how the ridge axis is extremely tall and no longer elongated west (see attached post from Monday how the GEFS was elongating the ridging which has proven to be wrong, so far, on the recent modeling) and the 06z OP 5-day mean same time period. Note the ridge Axis...the OP is clearly wrong and doesn't agree with it's ensembles. Until we get the Operational showing a pattern like it's ensembles, watching each run for storms is a fruitless effort...however, once the OP does get a hold of the pattern, expect deep cold and I fear maybe even suppression. As modeled - the cold and storms will come, it's just a matter of time. At this point we're on the Cusp of the pattern change by Day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 12 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Here's the last image from that free video, Packfan (hopefully, Jon can confirm...he's the CFS man). It appears to be the 500mb depiction from the latest run of the CFS for Feb. Looks pretty good to me! The daily runs of the CFSv2 are pretty unreliable and flop back and forth often. Here's the latest, for example. It's extremely cold. To get a better feel look at the last 7-day average This produces this for Feb...I'll add an personal anecdote this is pretty impressive for a 7-day mean on the CFSv2, can't recall the last time I saw it this cold. Usually we'll get a look like this on the 3 day mean, then it will have a torch run, ruining it, rinse and repeat. The daily runs can help predict the Monthly runs on the free website. Seeing this would cause some to freak out about Feb But with the dailies in mind, expect a flip back to a cold look for 1/19 run that will come out tomorrow morning. The CFSv2 tends to flip back and forth quite a bit mid month, then settle on the pattern as we get closer the last few days of the previous month (in this case, Jan 25+)...of course the idea here is that just like anything it's a model, and a climate one at that - the closer you get to your target, the more accurate you'll be hitting it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Per DT-. EAST COAST SNOWSTORMS -2 if something is going to happen it will be when MJO moves back intoPhase 8 after feb 7 # Timmy Clyde!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 9 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: Per DT-. EAST COAST SNOWSTORMS -2 if something is going to happen it will be when MJO moves back intoPhase 8 after feb 7 # Timmy Clyde!!! I saw that. Larry has done some research on SE storms and the MJO. I can't find it right now. I think that phases 1 and 2 may not be bad for us? Maybe the phase 8 is better for the MA and NE? Does anyone else have this info? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 12 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: Per DT-. EAST COAST SNOWSTORMS -2 if something is going to happen it will be when MJO moves back intoPhase 8 after feb 7 # Timmy Clyde!!! We got to let him start the thread!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Jon, thanks for the data. The CFS runs you referenced are impressive. Hard to find too much wrong with the look it's spitting out. If it turns out to be correct, there will likely be a lot of happy people in the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 RE: MJO plots, take a look: Americans: Kingdom United: Europa: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 ^ That's almost the best you could draw that up, given where we are in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Geez, the 12z GFS looks cold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 18 minutes ago, packfan98 said: Geez, the 12z GFS looks cold! Fishel cold!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 5 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: Fishel cold!! Not cold enough the 2m temps only stay below freezing a few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 1 hour ago, packfan98 said: I saw that. Larry has done some research on SE storms and the MJO. I can't find it right now. I think that phases 1 and 2 may not be bad for us? Maybe the phase 8 is better for the MA and NE? Does anyone else have this info? I had thought that too that phase 8,1,2 was good for the southeast I might be wrong though I usually am LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 5 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said: Not cold enough the 2m temps only stay below freezing a few days On the GEFS, the 850's stay below freezing for my back yard for 6 days in a row before a relax. In addition, the pattern is driving the cold air down at the end of the run for future days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 The 12z GFS is fine. It doesn't need to be, nor will it be below freezing in the SE for days on end. It's really not a good idea to look at surface temps and surface features in the LR of the GFS and form a narrative about the pattern. You might as well ask your cat to tell you what it's going to do. Is the upper pattern workable or even good? Pretty much. Does it jibe with it's ensembles? Pretty much. Is it in step with other ensembles? Pretty much. Have the ensembles been consistent? Pretty much. Do we have other pattern drivers moving into better phases? Pretty much. Takeaway? The transition toward a colder and potentially wintry pattern toward month end remains probable. That's the only thing to be concerned about at this point. Fantasy 2m temps and storms will come along soon, as long as this trend at 500 mb continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 1 minute ago, BIG FROSTY said: I had thought that too that phase 8,1,2 was good for the southeast I might be wrong though I usually am LOL I think you are right. Anything on the left side of the diagram is more favorable for us I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said: We got to let him start the thread!!! Lol. Yep!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 15 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said: Not cold enough the 2m temps only stay below freezing a few days Just a few days below freezing! Happens all the time around here, just your average cool shot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 13 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: The 12z GFS is fine. It doesn't need to be, nor will it be below freezing in the SE for days on end. It's really not a good idea to look at surface temps and surface features in the LR of the GFS and form a narrative about the pattern. You might as well ask your cat to tell you what it's going to do. Is the upper pattern workable or even good? Pretty much. Does it jibe with it's ensembles? Pretty much. Is it in step with other ensembles? Pretty much. Have the ensembles been consistent? Pretty much. Do we have other pattern drivers moving into better phases? Pretty much. Takeaway? The transition toward a colder and potentially wintry pattern toward month end remains probable. That's the only thing to be concerned about at this point. Fantasy 2m temps and storms will come along soon, as long as this trend at 500 mb continues. If it's 15-20 above normal for days on end I don't see why it can't be below freezing for days on end ? In order for us to balance things out it needs to be way below normal for at least 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 2 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: If it's 15-20 above normal for days on end I don't see why it can't be below freezing for days on end ? In order for us to balance things out it needs to be way below normal for at least 10 days. I mean, it's not impossible to have a couple of days in a row where the temps fail to exceed 32F for a good portion of the SE. But it's not all that common. Highs in the 30s or low 40s under sunny skies is not an environment where you get all distressed about the impossibility for snow to fall. If you have highs in the 30s and 40s with sunshine, it would not be hard at all to envision that same environment yielding below freezing temps with frozen precip falling, if there was a favorably tracking system in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 GEFS seems like it wants to retrograde the pacific ridge west at the end of the run, which would be no good. You can see the trough try to set back up west again and heights building the SE. I think a quick several day window opens for something wintry at the end of January/early Feb, but I'm worried the door closes pretty quick first week in February. That's unless that crazy awesome CFS look with blocking comes to fruition, but not seeing that on the ensembles yet. What will our strat warming do for us this year? Hmmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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