jshetley Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 7 minutes ago, Met1985 said: I had mentioned somewhere in the thread that there would be an uptick in severe weather around here. Someone will start a thread and it will be off and running. I do like the potential for severe weather especially east of the moutains. Sunday and maybe Monday too could be decent for severe, depending on timing, and especially if there is no wedge. One thing that could make the event weaker is if gulf coast convection cuts off moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 57 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said: Why is the discussion here weather orientated towards some cold air? Why is no one talking about the upcoming severe weather event ,which may be one of the bigger events in the recent years for the SE? Not sure I agree with one of the biggest events in recent years for the SE part, but I don't usually care until 2 days out or so. Most of us are used to tracking severe and we get quite a bit in normal climo times. I usually wait for mesoscale modeling to see if the cells are discrete or if we are dealing with a MCS type event, then discuss from there. Much less of a build up than a 100 page snowstorm thread lol, but that's just how it goes here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 1 hour ago, BIG FROSTY said: Per Jb, Some Big hitters now, But US Model too much W Trough Whle there are some lousy years showing up, some infamous cold Febs are in the day 11 analog 1995 was cold Feb in the east, but not much snow ( 1 storm( 1958 was lights out 2 years show up 1980 was cold, but alot of the snow stayed in the south 1960 had the coldest 2 weeks to open march in recorded history in the Carolinas 1978 with 2 votes, speaks for self 1981 was lousy 2001 was ok what does the blend give of using day 11 analogs. ( again this is the US model which is having trouble in the west as we showed with its runs against the other modeling and against its own self) 1980 was money in the SE. February 1980 ranks as the coldest average daily temperature for any February on record at GSP. 3" snow first week of January followed by 3 weeks of very warm temps and then the bottom fell out on February. Multiple storms in February followed by a big storm to start March. Jan 17 is following the pattern so far of 1980....would be awesome if Feb followed the same pattern as 80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 10 minutes ago, Jon said: Not sure I agree with one of the biggest events in recent years for the SE part, but I don't usually care until 2 days out or so. Most of us are used to tracking severe and we get quite a bit in normal climo times. I usually wait for mesoscale modeling to see if the cells are discrete or if we are dealing with a MCS type event, then discuss from there. Much less of a build up than a 100 page snowstorm thread lol, but that's just how it goes here. Hey Jon - What is this stuff y'all call "snow"? LOL - Phil PS - I know what a T-storm is - 9 months of the year they are at my doorstep! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 27 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: Happy anniversary! Where are you staying at? In a secluded cabin just west of town in Almond on top of a mountain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 27 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said: 1980 was money in the SE. February 1980 ranks as the coldest average daily temperature for any February on record at GSP. 3" snow first week of January followed by 3 weeks of very warm temps and then the bottom fell out on February. Multiple storms in February followed by a big storm to start March. Jan 17 is following the pattern so far of 1980....would be awesome if Feb followed the same pattern as 80. I remember the March 2nd 1980 storm like it was yesterday (I was 15 at the time). I have been patiently waiting the last 37 years for a repeat. Temps in the single digits during the height of the storm. Simply amazing.... This Feb/Mar has a chance to bring us something noteworthy. Let's reel it in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 49 minutes ago, jshetley said: Sunday and maybe Monday too could be decent for severe, depending on timing, and especially if there is no wedge. One thing that could make the event weaker is if gulf coast convection cuts off moisture. Yeah the Gulf Coast moisture robbing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Right now WRAL has me at 60 and at 61 this time next Tuesday. Oy vey this is going to be tough for another week being January and all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 29 minutes ago, Wow said: In a secluded cabin just west of town in Almond on top of a mountain. Ah I know where that is. Absolutely beautiful! Enjoy bud! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 1 minute ago, CaryWx said: Right now WRAL has me at 60 and at 61 this time next Tuesday. Oy vey this is going to be tough for another week being January and all. Yeah next week is another crap shoot in the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 2 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Yeah next week is another crap shoot in the pattern. I thought the cold was going to filter in by the 25th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 1 minute ago, CaryWx said: I thought the cold was going to filter in by the 25th Lol well from the 25 to the 27th. Somewhere around that time according to the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 2 hours ago, mackerel_sky said: Cause generally, it's a lot of NC and SC posters and most are always more interested in snow and 99% of the time, the wedge saves most of us from severe weather! Since I personally got hit by a tornado about a week after Thanksgiving, I'll have one good eye on it!! BF and JB, how's it going? We're doing good!! Thanks for asking! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Raleigh looks to go from Jan 10th to roughly Jan 27th without dropping below 40F. 18 days would have to be a record for middle of Jan. Solid +15 departures next 10 days. JB went cold for the east in Feb though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 1 hour ago, Jon said: Not sure I agree with one of the biggest events in recent years for the SE part, but I don't usually care until 2 days out or so. Most of us are used to tracking severe and we get quite a bit in normal climo times. I usually wait for mesoscale modeling to see if the cells are discrete or if we are dealing with a MCS type event, then discuss from there. Much less of a build up than a 100 page snowstorm thread lol, but that's just how it goes here. uhh there hasn't been a real significant event since 4/28 in the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 8 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said: uhh there hasn't been a real significant event since 4/28 in the SE. 4/28 of what year ? You're not talking about 4-27-11 are you ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Just now, Snowless in Carrollton said: 4/28 of what year ? You're not talking about 4-27-11 are you ? 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 9 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said: 2014 Nov 30 of '16, was kind of a busy day!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 55 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said: uhh there hasn't been a real significant event since 4/28 in the SE. uhhhh, speaking of only NC we've had 24 tornado reports since 2015. By signficant I guess you mean full fledged balls to the wall outbreak with 153 tornado reports? Yeah, probably not going to happen in late January... But let's see anyway what we got here. This one is a good one. and this one Outside of NC, the "SE" as you mentioned, this one is memorable: and this or this maybe this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Not sure what's going on with the Euro, but I wish it went out 1-2 more days! 0z looked fun to me otoh, the 6z GFS looks like Dookies! A couple lows in the upper 20s near end of the month, and by Feb 1st, it's cold in Canada, N of Maine,then the plains are warming again!! #PATTERNCHANGE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said: Not sure what's going on with the Euro, but I wish it went out 1-2 more days! 0z looked fun to me otoh, the 6z GFS looks like Dookies! A couple lows in the upper 20s near end of the month, and by Feb 1st, it's cold in Canada, N of Maine,then the plains are warming again!! #PATTERNCHANGE #TRANSIENT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 30 minutes ago, mrdaddyman said: #TRANSIENT TIMOTHY CLYDE! No snow til mid month! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 JB just put out some really good tweets this morning on evolution of the pattern. Here's one dealing with the strat warm and SOI I mentioned yesterday: Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 1h1 hour ago Joe Bastardi Retweeted Joe Bastardi Huge SOI crash and strat warm signal that the second half of winter in the east will feature big comeback Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 2 hours ago, mackerel_sky said: Not sure what's going on with the Euro, but I wish it went out 1-2 more days! 0z looked fun to me otoh, the 6z GFS looks like Dookies! A couple lows in the upper 20s near end of the month, and by Feb 1st, it's cold in Canada, N of Maine,then the plains are warming again!! #PATTERNCHANGE 6z is not a bad look. It's out in fantasy land, but just for fun it would have a nice 1056 high coming down from Canada and a low developing in S. Texas. It would be a race of the cold air coming in from the north and the moisture coming from the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Fishel cold is on the way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Mack needs to step away from the guacamole dip. All of the ensembles still look good for the end of the month and Feb, in terms of getting into a pattern where we can get cold again and have a chance at wintry precip. I will let others weigh in on the SOI, strat stuff, CFS, Weeklies, etc. But at least some of those look good, according to the tweets Packfan posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 By the way, this is what you really don't want to see, if you don't like severe weather in the central and eastern Carolinas. It's a pretty scary look to me (6z GFS and the Euro looks similar): : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 38 minutes ago, packfan98 said: JB just put out some really good tweets this morning on evolution of the pattern. Here's one dealing with the strat warm and SOI I mentioned yesterday: Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 1h1 hour ago Joe Bastardi Retweeted Joe Bastardi Huge SOI crash and strat warm signal that the second half of winter in the east will feature big comeback Meh, December into Januarywas said to be a cold and snowy holiday season like we havnt seen in years! December to remember and stuff! How'd that work out? Just take his enthusiasm for a cold and snowy East and winter comeback tweets, with a mountain of salt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 @fallslake, I can tell you what wins that race 99.99999999999993/4 of the time!!! Rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Look at that aleutian ridge with western ridge...looks really cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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