mackerel_sky Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Pack, gotta give you a lot of kudos for trying hard to make everybody on the board happy. Those Zimas must be doing the trick! And it's funny now that the GEPS went from this (0z): To this 12z): ...at the end of its run. Return of the SW trough? And now, it's the GEFS that looks better: Who knows. Timmy Cletus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 Euro Ens 10-15 day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 Start of Feb still looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 Grit, Is that a dry look during this period?^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 2 hours ago, packbacker said: Still like days 14-16 on the GEFS...matches up fairly well with our Feb snow events composite. Man! That's darn good for analogs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 11 minutes ago, griteater said: Euro Ens 10-15 day Something doesn't look snowy on the eps. Is ridge too far east?? Or our trough too sharp? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 7 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Grit, Is that a dry look during this period?^ I'm not Grit, but the ridge axis out west being along the coastline should allow for some amplification if a strong enough wave is present (which there is no way to ascertain by looking at the mean). Of course, with no blocking, the flow will be progressive and we'll need really good timing with highs to the north before they scoot out to sea. Overall, it's not a bad look and definitely workable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 12 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: I'm not Grit, but the ridge axis out west being along the coastline should allow for some amplification if a strong enough wave is present (which there is no way to ascertain by looking at the mean). Of course, with no blocking, the flow will be progressive and we'll need really good timing with highs to the north before they scoot out to sea. Overall, it's not a bad look and definitely workable. Yeah, well said CR. EPS is skimpy on individual storms, but here's the thing....if the ridge was off the west coast and extending up into the heart of Alaska, we would be saying that the ridge is too far west. Personally, I like a heavy negative AO / negative NAO pattern with a neutral Pacific, but in lieu of that, this is probably the next best thing. Like you said, the 5 day mean can't account for specific shortwave tracks etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 13 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: I'm not Grit, but the ridge axis out west being along the coastline should allow for some amplification if a strong enough wave is present (which there is no way to ascertain by looking at the mean). Of course, with no blocking, the flow will be progressive and we'll need really good timing with highs to the north before they scoot out to sea. Overall, it's not a bad look and definitely workable. I still like this look a lot better than the whole Montana high scenario, dumpster fire of last winter storm! Give us a good MN or NY high, and my wedge, and I'll take my chances! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 5 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: I still like this look a lot better than the whole Montana high scenario, dumpster fire of last winter storm! Give us a good MN or NY high, and my wedge, and I'll take my chances! Cad sucks! Mic drop..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 3 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: Cad sucks! Mic drop..... Yep, you guys do not do well in CAD scenarios. The mountains block the low level cold air and you get caught in the southwesterly flow. I prefer a high pressure that's centered around the lakes and a low pressure (miller A) in the northeastern gulf. That usually does the trick for both of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 Since we are looking to setup a favorable pacific, I'm wondering if anyone has any information on the SOI? If it suddenly tanks, it usually indicates a big system is coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 7 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: Yep, you guys do not do well in CAD scenarios. The mountains block the low level cold air and you get caught in the southwesterly flow. I prefer a high pressure that's centered around the lakes and a low pressure (miller A) in the northeastern gulf. That usually does the trick for both of us. Yeah that usually screws a lot of people but not us. Looking at the gfs again the cold air is marginal in my opinion. It's not terrible but people outside the mountains would need help getting snow I would think. With what is being shown. Still over a week out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Currently near Bryson City for anniversary and totally understand the hatred of CAD. Watched the temp rise 12 degrees in 15 min driving up the climb on I-40 yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 7 minutes ago, Wow said: Currently near Bryson City for anniversary and totally understand the hatred of CAD. Watched the temp rise 12 degrees in 15 min driving up the climb on I-40 yesterday. Happy Anniversary man. Too bad all the snow has melted. Although, there are a few dirty snow piles surviving in some parking lots around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 1 hour ago, packfan98 said: Since we are looking to setup a favorable pacific, I'm wondering if anyone has any information on the SOI? If it suddenly tanks, it usually indicates a big system is coming. I heard it was going to begin to crash starting this coming weekend I think is what JB said! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 3 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: I heard it was going to begin to crash starting this coming weekend I think is what JB said! Excellent! Now all we need is a thunderstorm next week to seal the deal! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Just now, packfan98 said: Excellent! Now all we need is a thunderstorm next week to seal the deal! lol, That is quite possible too!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthernUpstateSC Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 1 minute ago, packfan98 said: Excellent! Now all we need is a thunderstorm next week to seal the deal! Our local weatherman John Cessarich mentioned during 6pm news that there was the possibility of hearing a few claps of thunder this coming sunday!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Per Jb, Some Big hitters now, But US Model too much W Trough Whle there are some lousy years showing up, some infamous cold Febs are in the day 11 analog 1995 was cold Feb in the east, but not much snow ( 1 storm( 1958 was lights out 2 years show up 1980 was cold, but alot of the snow stayed in the south 1960 had the coldest 2 weeks to open march in recorded history in the Carolinas 1978 with 2 votes, speaks for self 1981 was lousy 2001 was ok what does the blend give of using day 11 analogs. ( again this is the US model which is having trouble in the west as we showed with its runs against the other modeling and against its own self) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 7 minutes ago, NorthernUpstateSC said: Our local weatherman John Cessarich mentioned during 6pm news that there was the possibility of hearing a few claps of thunder this coming sunday!!!! A few claps of thunder ? Heck, they are talking about tornadoes here. Tornadoes in the dead of winter. Only in the southern US ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Why is the discussion here weather orientated towards some cold air? Why is no one talking about the upcoming severe weather event ,which may be one of the bigger events in the recent years for the SE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 4 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said: Why is the discussion here weather orientated towards some cold air? Why is no one talking about the upcoming severe weather event ,which may be one of the bigger events in the recent years for the SE? Cause generally, it's a lot of NC and SC posters and most are always more interested in snow and 99% of the time, the wedge saves most of us from severe weather! Since I personally got hit by a tornado about a week after Thanksgiving, I'll have one good eye on it!! BF and JB, how's it going? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 23 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said: Why is the discussion here weather orientated towards some cold air? Why is no one talking about the upcoming severe weather event ,which may be one of the bigger events in the recent years for the SE? Because it is very hard for us to get severe weather here in the foothills of NC in the dead of winter. The cold air damming (wedge) always keeps us from getting any low-level instability. Oh we can get some thunderstorms, but they are usually elevated and are not normally anything other than some thunder and marginal straight-line winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 28 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said: Why is the discussion here weather orientated towards some cold air? Why is no one talking about the upcoming severe weather event ,which may be one of the bigger events in the recent years for the SE? Right or wrong, the interest in winter weather trounces severe weather on here. Severe wx is meh to me, but I understand why folks like it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monsoonman1 Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 33 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said: Why is the discussion here weather orientated towards some cold air? Why is no one talking about the upcoming severe weather event ,which may be one of the bigger events in the recent years for the SE? Forget it Matt, it's the SE forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 1 hour ago, Wow said: Currently near Bryson City for anniversary and totally understand the hatred of CAD. Watched the temp rise 12 degrees in 15 min driving up the climb on I-40 yesterday. Nice WOW! Congratulations and Bryson is a nice little city. Y'all should drive into Asheville and look around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 46 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said: Why is the discussion here weather orientated towards some cold air? Why is no one talking about the upcoming severe weather event ,which may be one of the bigger events in the recent years for the SE? I had mentioned somewhere in the thread that there would be an uptick in severe weather around here. Someone will start a thread and it will be off and running. I do like the potential for severe weather especially east of the moutains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 1 hour ago, Wow said: Currently near Bryson City for anniversary and totally understand the hatred of CAD. Watched the temp rise 12 degrees in 15 min driving up the climb on I-40 yesterday. Happy anniversary! Where are you staying at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 45 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said: Why is the discussion here weather orientated towards some cold air? Why is no one talking about the upcoming severe weather event ,which may be one of the bigger events in the recent years for the SE? Yeah folks on this sub forum care very little about severe weather until it actually is happening. A poster above me makes a great point about the wedge sparing much of NC and SC this time of year and even into the spring many times. It happens about 75% of the times here in the western Carolinas. But that boundary can enhance the severe weather if it is in the right place. An example is March 3 2012 in Charlotte in when a storm riding a wedge boundary produced a tornado. There should be something about this in the Tennessee Valley sub forum or maybe the central and western sub forum though. If the event becomes big enough, there will be a major thread somewhere here on AmWx about it. Check out some of the threads from the spring of 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.