mackerel_sky Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 So when are the 60s and 70s gonna end?? 10-15 days?? Awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 Reading through this thread is like a train wreck because of a couple of specific posters. Can we not keep banter in the tread designated for banter? @SnowGoose69, Where would the ideal spot for a PAC ridge to form? It looks like it's in a good position based on the map above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 Just now, mackerel_sky said: So when are the 60s and 70s gonna end?? 10-15 days?? Awesome Come on Mack, you know it's second week of fab feb NO SOONER> per Tim C........................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 We need to get the AO negative. A couple of days back the models were showing this and it allowed some of the cold air at the pole to move south (not showing this now). The models are still showing a trough type pattern to setup (in LR) but we're now having surface temp issues. Question is; can north American generate enough cold air for us to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 1 minute ago, BIG FROSTY said: Come on Mack, you know it's second week of fab feb NO SOONER> per Tim C........................... True, I forgot! Nothing like waiting 3 weeks for 50s/30s ! Best winter ever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 We need to get the AO negative. A couple of days back the models were showing this and it allowed some of the cold air at the pole to move south (not showing this now). The models are still showing a trough type pattern to setup (in LR) but we're now having surface temp issues. Question is; can north American generate enough cold air for us to work with. it's gonna be marginal air no doubt . but when are we not dealing with marginal temps. I don't see much arctic air getting involved at least through the first few weeks of February. So we will be relying on timing and marginal temps . life in the SE Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 What I don't understand is why we can't get a sustained good winter pattern in this part of the country. The west has no trouble locking in cold for large portions of the winter. Nor does the central US. Nor does Europe. Nor does Russia. Etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 GEFS says we start approaching some BN weather by Feb 1. In the meantime I wonder how close we can get to being as warm as last years Dec-Jan. Not sure we can but could be close. Warm super ninos and warm weak La Niña. We warm anything and everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 10 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: What I don't understand is why we can't get a sustained good winter pattern in this part of the country. The west has no trouble locking in cold for large portions of the winter. Nor does the central US. Nor does Europe. Nor does Russia. Etc. The west has elevation. This really is the first good year in a long time. This time of year they just need the moisture and elevation creates the snow. In a crappy year (for us) I'm glad they're at least replenishing (...surpassing) the snowpack. Economically this will benefit us all (cheaper produce, etc.). Dealing with Europe, usually we mirror patterns. When a -NAO occurs eastern NA and W. Europe tend to be cold. I suppose they're lucking out and getting cold from another setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 Not the most reliable, but maybe a hint of hope that things begin to even out (then perhaps we can hope for cold): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 41 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: What I don't understand is why we can't get a sustained good winter pattern in this part of the country. The west has no trouble locking in cold for large portions of the winter. Nor does the central US. Nor does Europe. Nor does Russia. Etc. You'll always get the same response: you live in the South Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 Bob Chill from the MA forum, a great and knowledgable poster, doesn't seem enthralled with the 10+ day pattern, at all! That should throw up all sorts of red flags!! Mic pickup ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 40 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Bob Chill from the MA forum, a great and knowledgable poster, doesn't seem enthralled with the 10+ day pattern, at all! That should throw up all sorts of red flags!! Mic pickup ! LOL...feels like a one hit wonder winter. You got hit, so your good. We are on pace for a record warm January. Odds that flips to a sustained BN pattern in Feb was never high. I do think a minor event hits someone in mid-Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 15 minutes ago, packbacker said: LOL...feels like a one hit wonder winter. You got hit, so your good. We are on pace for a record warm January. Odds that flips to a sustained BN pattern in Feb was never high. I do think a minor event hits someone in mid-Feb. First fantasy clipper of the year on 12z GFS ! Those always work out! It's the next storm behind the clipper, that equals $$$$$! Should be here by Fab Feb 4th, right as the cool air exits! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 Remember around Christmas time when everyone said we wouldn't have a favorable window until mid Februry.?.. Then the bulk of our region got 6+ inches of snow 12 days later? I remember Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 1 minute ago, WarmNose said: Remember around Christmas time when everyone said we wouldn't have a favorable window until mid Februry.?.. Then the bulk of our region got 6+ inches of snow 12 days later? I remember Yes! But I don't know if I'd go so far as to say the "bulk" of our region. But, yes, it is the 16th of January. Punting February is not very smart. It just isn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 06z GEFS also with more of a move toward the GEPS and EPS. Similar look with the 3 ensembles now with negative heights moving out of AK around the 27th, then a -EPO/+PNA type pattern setting up. I think that alone gives at least some reason for optimism. AO/NAO nothing special in our favor, but things could look a lot worse from a long range ensemble standpoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Yes! But I don't know if I'd go so far as to say the "bulk" of our region. But, yes, it is the 16th of January. Punting February is not very smart. It just isn't. Yeah, I couldn't leave the house for days, with my 1/8 in. Of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 Read on the other board the eps day 11-15 was very cold SE. That's last week of January per Larry. Think folks would be wise to heavily weigh in the euro favor when looking LR or at a minimum 50/50 blend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 Remember around Christmas time when everyone said we wouldn't have a favorable window until mid Februry.?.. Then the bulk of our region got 6+ inches of snow 12 days later? I remember You'll notice the same folks are deniers of this pattern change. Old habits die hard!Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: Yeah, I couldn't leave the house for days, with my 1/8 in. Of snow Yeah I didn't include MBY in the "bulk" . Lol I saw a solid backend flurry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 Just get the trough in the east and let's take our chances just like the last storm. This chasing perfect tc's is always gonna come up short. Didn't need it last storm to score. Yea it's nice to have in our favor but just getting a trough on east coast will open up the window for opportunity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 nice storm on 12z gfs at the end of its run in texas if we can hold the cold air. also the 12z gefs brings cold 26th thru the end of the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 Nice HP signature there but looks transient (on the move) almost...'Course it's in wonderland at 384 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 4 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said: nice storm on 12z gfs at the end of its run in texas if we can hold the cold air. Should we start the thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 Wonder if we end up moving towards Grits analogs he posted the other day for Feb. GEFS kinds off hinting towards that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 11-15 day avg on 12z GEFS and GEPS. Still posting 11-15 day here, but things aren't getting pushed back thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 11-16 day avg for 850mb temp anomalies on GEPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 ^ changes in the Pacific start even earlier. I like where we are heading. Not the perfect pattern but definitely one we can score in especially for a Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 9 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: ^ changes in the Pacific start even earlier. I like where we are heading. Not the perfect pattern but definitely one we can score in especially for a Nina. Yeah I think it looks good especially for the western portions of the viewing area. The cutoff low looks very impressive. No cold air with it but some severe weather potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.