BIG FROSTY Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 10 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: 12z eps was a picture of beauty last night. Trough in the east, west coast ridge. Complete opposite of gefs, the yo yo model. Don't get played. I'll wait and see what they have the next few runs.................... JB not buying trough out west in long range, He sees GFS can't dismiss it, but he's not buying it! Euro and Canadian showing same pattern for a cold east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 Model wars....EPS and GEPS show a nice PAC low with west coast ridge and eastern trough. GEFS says what PAC low...and we get buried trough in west. What did we learn last week....always hug the warmest model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 29 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: I think we have a few members who are on the verge of losing their marbles this year. Has anyone seen Brick? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usmeagle2005 Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 I have a feeling we are back to the 3-4 month warm period, and if your chasing this patter change you will continue to be hurt, cause I was through the month of October and November, just go with the warm models cause they are usually right. A lot of people don't want to hear this I know but it is what it is.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 39 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: I'm glad the MA is looking good, cause the 12z GFS , was purely abysmal! Temp anomalies pretty much bleed red , the whole run and strengthen over the East by the last frame, which takes us to the 31st! Delayed , but not denied!! It's coming , I promise! Timothy Clown, might be right! #PATTERNCHANGEISREAL #WHERESBRICK #SAVEBRICK Timothy, might be right? I have to say he's persistent once he locks in on a forecast!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 13 minutes ago, packbacker said: I always hug the warmest model. I guess 2-3 models showing cold and 1showing not, I wonder which you believe!?? You and Tim Cly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 11 minutes ago, No snow for you said: Has anyone seen Brick? He's either at the bottom of a cliff or very near the ledge!? He posted on Roberts Facebook page a few days ago, so he's around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 We need to wait another 24hrs or so. Still out in the LR. Placing my guess the pattern change still occurs before 1/27 with potential storm in these parts by 31st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 Just now, mackerel_sky said: He's either at the bottom of a cliff or very near the ledge!? He posted on Roberts Facebook page a few days ago, so he's around. Could Brick be the new Tim Cly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timothy Clyde Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 Fishel, DT, and others finally coming around to my idea if not flat out stealing some of my summaries. I said big precip maker, severe, strong pattern changing storm, and nothing to track until the second week of Feb or later. DT appears to be on it with the New England wintry chances that will help us during late season CAD for freezing rain chances and possibly wet snow. Need the High parked over this fresh snow cover to bleed down and slam its beans against the Appalachian Mountains. (No go for Columbia and Atlanta Metros). Check back in about 4-5 weeks please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 7 minutes ago, Timothy Clyde said: Fishel, DT, and others finally coming around to my idea if not flat out stealing some of my summaries. I said big precip maker, severe, strong pattern changing storm, and nothing to track until the second week of Feb or later. DT appears to be on it with the New England wintry chances that will help us during late season CAD for freezing rain chances and possibly wet snow. Need the High parked over this fresh snow cover to bleed down and slam its beans against the Appalachian Mountains. (No go for Columbia and Atlanta Metros). Check back in about 4-5 weeks please. Definitely Wilkes now! The twisted thoughts that real forecasters use his thoughts! Delusional Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 Fishel, DT, and others finally coming around to my idea if not flat out stealing some of my summaries. I said big precip maker, severe, strong pattern changing storm, and nothing to track until the second week of Feb or later. DT appears to be on it with the New England wintry chances that will help us during late season CAD for freezing rain chances and possibly wet snow. Need the High parked over this fresh snow cover to bleed down and slam its beans against the Appalachian Mountains. (No go for Columbia and Atlanta Metros). Check back in about 4-5 weeks please.lol 4-5 weeks . we will be rolling into spring by then Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 43 minutes ago, packbacker said: Model wars....EPS and GEPS show a nice PAC low with west coast ridge and eastern trough. GEFS says what PAC low...and we get buried trough in west. What did we learn last week....always hug the warmest model. Wasn't the GFS the one consistently showing the most snow here with the last storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 16 minutes ago, Timothy Clyde said: Fishel, DT, and others finally coming around to my idea if not flat out stealing some of my summaries. I said big precip maker, severe, strong pattern changing storm, and nothing to track until the second week of Feb or later. DT appears to be on it with the New England wintry chances that will help us during late season CAD for freezing rain chances and possibly wet snow. Need the High parked over this fresh snow cover to bleed down and slam its beans against the Appalachian Mountains. (No go for Columbia and Atlanta Metros). Check back in about 4-5 weeks please. So--TIMMY...For several posts now you seem to keep harping on this "...second week of Feb or later." Are you defining that as >2/14? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 6 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Wasn't the GFS the one consistently showing the most snow here with the last storm? Yes, even as the heavy rain was falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: Yes, even as the heavy rain was falling. Lol! Bitter?? yall will score atleast 2 more cold rain events before March! For right now, enjoy your warm rains! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 9 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Yes, even as the heavy rain was falling. It was still a decent storm here. More sleet than advertised, but the roads were awful for a couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 4 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: It was still a decent storm here. More sleet than advertised, but the roads were awful for a couple of days. It was a complete let-down. Yeah you can go with the "at least something frozen fell from the sky and made the roads a mess" meme, but compared to what it looked like we were going to get just 12 hours earlier (or even the night of, depending on your model of choice -- and there were many to choose from) it was an utter disappointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 1 hour ago, BIG FROSTY said: I'll wait and see what they have the next few runs.................... JB not buying trough out west in long range, He sees GFS can't dismiss it, but he's not buying it! Euro and Canadian showing same pattern for a cold east. Yeah the GEFS is on its own kinda with the warm East and cold West. I like the upcoming time frame. EPS and weeklies FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timothy Clyde Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 17 minutes ago, CaryWx said: So--TIMMY...For several posts now you seem to keep harping on this "...second week of Feb or later." Are you defining that as >2/14? Or equal too minus a day or two...I certainly don't buy the first week of February! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 15 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Lol! Bitter?? yall will score atleast 2 more cold rain events before March! For right now, enjoy your warm rains! But not before the second week of February. Mic drop! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 get a load of this Tim guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 3 minutes ago, Timothy Clyde said: Or equal too minus a day or two...I certainly don't buy the first week of February! Fair enough, but I don't predict the cold regime setting in by 28th with no storm potential until 2 weeks later. Matter of fact I more expect a pattern relax setting in by mid-late Feb. Of course we've been known the get storms in that set-up as well. Dismissing the likelihood to go 2 whole weeks from the cold onset without a storm would be surprising and no one is predicting the cold getting delayed until 2/5-6 that I can see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 Honestly, i could live with the rest of the winter being like today. 70 degrees and sunny. Windows open. I've had my snow for the year. Bring on spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 Nothing too scary near the end of the 12z GEFS. Not an ideal pattern, but certainly not a torchy look. And the 12z GEPS continues its trend of a +PNA, starting in the mid-late 200s and keeping it in place through the balance of the run. Nice trough in the east. The NAO looks positive on both models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Nothing too scary near the end of the 12z GEFS. Not an ideal pattern, but certainly not a torchy look. And the 12z GEPS continues its trend of a +PNA, starting in the mid-late 200s and keeping it in place through the balance of the run. Nice trough in the east. The NAO looks positive on both models. The Euro op still looks kind of wonky at day 10, but definitely not cold! That big low or cutoff over the lakes does drag 0 degree 850s to the western Carolinas, but not sure if there would be precip, but looks downslopey, to me!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 39 minutes ago, Timothy Clyde said: Or equal too minus a day or two...I certainly don't buy the first week of February! How much for wilkesbro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 12 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: The Euro op still looks kind of wonky at day 10, but definitely not cold! That big low or cutoff over the lakes does drag 0 degree 850s to the western Carolinas, but not sure if there would be precip, but looks downslopey, to me!? The problem with the EURO OP is that is only goes out to hour 240. That's why the EPS is important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 I guess folks won't be discounting the NAM so quick anymore after the last dud. As it's been said on here before the smart thing to do is go with the warmest model and the one showing the least amount of snow. Or you can go with what the the GFS and Euro say and just move the rain/snow line about 50-75 miles NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Alchemist Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 48 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: But not before the second week of February. Mic drop! Would you guys quit it with the mic drop??? As a sound man, I keep twitching every time I read it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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