mackerel_sky Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 18 minutes ago, griteater said: Euro Control Run has a low run across C FL with 32 deg at Mack's house at 1PM on Sat Jan 28th....it's right where we want it Based on the last storm, I'm gonna need that about 209 miles south, at this point in time and that would still fringe the MA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 2 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said: The biggest and only concern I really have is that the PNA ridge on the guidance has occasionally IMO been shown to be too far west still. It's not as bad as it's been under the -PNA/-EPO regime this winter but I still find some runs of the GEFS and EPS have shown it a tad far west of where you want it 8 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: If it's one signal I'll take over all others it's a positive pna. That being said it's only been posotive like 5 days during met winter back in December. Not sure it's going be extremely positive in a week or so, but somehow we are getting our windows of opportunities without it this year. It looks like the GFS Ens wants to go with more of a -EPO, while the Canadian Ens and Euro Ens want to go with more of a east -EPO & +PNA. Also, the GFS Ens is a little quicker with evacuating the negative height anomalies out of Alasksa, around Jan 25, with the Canadian and Euro Ens doing this around the 27th....details, details Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 28 minutes ago, griteater said: It looks like the GFS Ens wants to go with more of a -EPO, while the Canadian Ens and Euro Ens want to go with more of a east -EPO & +PNA. Also, the GFS Ens is a little quicker with evacuating the negative height anomalies out of Alasksa, around Jan 25, with the Canadian and Euro Ens doing this around the 27th....details, details What does that mean in regards to sensible weather? Still cold after that? Still looking more ninoish and split flow!? Is Feb still gonna be fab? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 4 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: What does that mean in regards to sensible weather? Still cold after that? Still looking more ninoish and split flow!? Is Feb still gonna be fab? Allow Larry Cosgrove to answer you:"The weather forecast world will take on a whole new design in the last week of January. And if the longer term and weekly model outputs verify, through the month of February as well. Some things to consider: we are not in a La Nina episode (very close to neutral now, and looking to stay that way through the upcoming summer). A vigorous subtropical jet stream, quite reminiscent of what was seen in some El Nino winters and most recently in the negative/neutral 2007-08 and 2008-09 low sun periods continues to bring down water table deficits in the West and Old South. The January Thaw looks to be ending as a blocking signature sets up across Alaska, northern Canada and Greenland. One last but important point: the impressive storm sequence now over the northern Pacific Ocean is predicted by all of the numerical models and ensembles to shift south and east, roughly along a California/South Texas/Florida/Virginia Capes/Nova Scotia path. Snow enthusiasts will be smiling brightly at such a possibility, as higher latitude blocking in the +PNA/-AO/-NAO positions is intricately tied to high volume snow and ice events in the heretofore mostly warm Dixie and Eastern Seaboard states.It may take a few days for the Mid-Atlantic and New England states to chill down. I expect the deepening cold upper low to expand from MO into the Great Lakes, and likely become situated over Ontario. The second shortwave moves from California to Texas. It is possible that this feature takes an inland track, but in the process deepens the snowpack from Appalachia into the Corn Belt. The next impulse in the series (January 27 - 30) has the best chance of a) bringing a significant snow event to parts of Dixie and the Interstate 95 corridor. You may have seen that all of the ensemble packages continue to show a steep negative height anomaly over Virginia and North Carolina in about two weeks. This is often the sign I look for in important winter weather scenarios that do not involve a changeover to rain.If the ECMWF and CFS weekly trends continue, and of course verify, then there will be little or no "bounce back" into a warmer realm in February. I realize that every January Thaw seems to bring out the "winter cancel" gang, but analog forecasts support the probability that February into early March will feature widespread cold and chances for moderate/hevay ice and snow events. As a word of caution, I must remind you and myself that there was one glaring weakness in the analog system forecast for this winter so far: the incredible precipitation display over the West. The temperature outlook was a bit too warm in spots, but the proliferation of deep moisture and storm energy may be pointing toward a fairly active California "undercut" of the +PNA ridge complex. That would mean the Golden State will be awash in heavy rain and an immense mountain snowpack. So as milder temperatures arrive this coming spring, the long standing worries of drought may give way to fears of widespread flooding!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 17 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: What does that mean in regards to sensible weather? Still cold after that? Still looking more ninoish and split flow!? Is Feb still gonna be fab? For my non-Cosgrovian response (not that he will be wrong)...nothing has changed...the ensembles and long range specialists are signaling a flip to below normal temps by end of Jan. We should see a period of cold, but this winter has gone back and forth, so it's hard to say if we would really lock in with cold in mid and late Feb. Split flow with cold is special, so it's also hard to count on us seeing that, but the pseudo block over Hudson Bay and E Canada may help with suppressing the storm track and giving us some chances as long as we have some cold injected into the pattern via the -EPO/+PNA. The NAO overall looks meh over the next few weeks. A strat warming wouldn't hurt in that regard, though those tend to benefit the E U.S. more during Ninos than they do during Ninas (granted we are basically coming out of the nina now). Good news: we are going into peak climo now from late Jan to late Feb for SE winter events. Bad news: regardless of pattern, it's always difficult to get things to work out down here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 25 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Allow Larry Cosgrove to answer you:"The weather forecast world will take on a whole new design in the last week of January. And if the longer term and weekly model outputs verify, through the month of February as well. Some things to consider: we are not in a La Nina episode (very close to neutral now, and looking to stay that way through the upcoming summer). A vigorous subtropical jet stream, quite reminiscent of what was seen in some El Nino winters and most recently in the negative/neutral 2007-08 and 2008-09 low sun periods continues to bring down water table deficits in the West and Old South. The January Thaw looks to be ending as a blocking signature sets up across Alaska, northern Canada and Greenland. One last but important point: the impressive storm sequence now over the northern Pacific Ocean is predicted by all of the numerical models and ensembles to shift south and east, roughly along a California/South Texas/Florida/Virginia Capes/Nova Scotia path. Snow enthusiasts will be smiling brightly at such a possibility, as higher latitude blocking in the +PNA/-AO/-NAO positions is intricately tied to high volume snow and ice events in the heretofore mostly warm Dixie and Eastern Seaboard states.It may take a few days for the Mid-Atlantic and New England states to chill down. I expect the deepening cold upper low to expand from MO into the Great Lakes, and likely become situated over Ontario. The second shortwave moves from California to Texas. It is possible that this feature takes an inland track, but in the process deepens the snowpack from Appalachia into the Corn Belt. The next impulse in the series (January 27 - 30) has the best chance of a) bringing a significant snow event to parts of Dixie and the Interstate 95 corridor. You may have seen that all of the ensemble packages continue to show a steep negative height anomaly over Virginia and North Carolina in about two weeks. This is often the sign I look for in important winter weather scenarios that do not involve a changeover to rain.If the ECMWF and CFS weekly trends continue, and of course verify, then there will be little or no "bounce back" into a warmer realm in February. I realize that every January Thaw seems to bring out the "winter cancel" gang, but analog forecasts support the probability that February into early March will feature widespread cold and chances for moderate/hevay ice and snow events. As a word of caution, I must remind you and myself that there was one glaring weakness in the analog system forecast for this winter so far: the incredible precipitation display over the West. The temperature outlook was a bit too warm in spots, but the proliferation of deep moisture and storm energy may be pointing toward a fairly active California "undercut" of the +PNA ridge complex. That would mean the Golden State will be awash in heavy rain and an immense mountain snowpack. So as milder temperatures arrive this coming spring, the long standing worries of drought may give way to fears of widespread flooding!" Giddy Up!!! That made me tingle! I think he must know Shetley, because he mentioned the " winter cancel" gang, and Shets the OG ringleader, and Pack is the groundskeeper! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 One more happy note, my TWC 10 day forecast , has rain, every single day!!!! Don't think I've ever seen that!? Have a lot better feeling about this summer not being super-dry! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 It we do see a decent to great February you have to give props to Shetley because he has been on the February band wagon since the start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 5 minutes ago, griteater said: Nice post , as usual! Thanks for all your research and info! Don't think most would think of February, as our snowiest month! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: Nice post , as usual! Thanks for all your research and info! Don't think most would think of February, as our snowiest month! Thanks Mack. Well, Jan has the most events overall, but the numbers show more larger events in Feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 14 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: Does your research say why there's more larger events in Feb ? That seems a bit hard to believe considering Feb usually has 3 less days than Jan ! Just a thought - the "why" is not as important as is the "is" but it has been explained to me that temps up your way can remain cold enough while the gulf is warming a tad and sending more moisture north as the jet retreats ever so slightly everyone i know from blairsville to lexington to waynesville says feb is the probable snow month, if it's really gonna happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 360 storm is still there on 0z, it's money, lets reel her in! The thing that concerns me,the sucky plains high placement!! After getting burned last time, I need my wedge back! I don't care about p-types, just want it to be below freezing when precip starts falling! Hasn't happened here since atleast 2014, iirc!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 2 hours ago, mackerel_sky said: Giddy Up!!! That made me tingle! I think he must know Shetley, because he mentioned the " winter cancel" gang, and Shets the OG ringleader, and Pack is the groundskeeper! After 2011 - 2012, I don't dismiss the winter cancel" gang out of hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 I made this for RDU a couple years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 8 hours ago, mackerel_sky said: 360 storm is still there on 0z, it's money, lets reel her in! The thing that concerns me,the sucky plains high placement!! After getting burned last time, I need my wedge back! I don't care about p-types, just want it to be below freezing when precip starts falling! Hasn't happened here since atleast 2014, iirc!! Yeah we need a CAD high in place along with cold air already here to get most of our winter weather. We can get cold air in here during precip events, but NOT if it has to cross the mountains. I can remember an event from either 2003 or 2004 when it was in the 70's as late as 8pm on a Sat night and below freezing to stay by noon Sun with a nice ice and sleet event. That cold air poured in here with CAD though, not from over the mountains. That was the key. We actually did not have really cold air in place for that big 2014 storm though, but again it came in with CAD that covered all of SC and almost all of GA during the event. By the time the event started for us in upstate SC it was well below freezing and would not go back above until the event was over. If we had needed to depend on cold air coming over the mountains the story would have been much different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 8 hours ago, cbmclean said: After 2011 - 2012, I don't dismiss the winter cancel" gang out of hand. We can't have a winter completely like that one now though. Only the mountains and north of I-40 in NC got anything out of that winter and it wasn't much. Much of SC and GA got 100% shut out of winter precip that winter. Not so this winter, even if it did end right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 57 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: I made this for RDU a couple years ago. If you look at the 6z GFS , that storm on the 30th, is exactly, exactly, where we need it at this point in time!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 58 minutes ago, jshetley said: We can't have a winter completely like that one now though. Only the mountains and north of I-40 in NC got anything out of that winter and it wasn't much. Much of SC and GA got 100% shut out of winter precip that winter. Not so this winter, even if it did end right now. True: I'm just saying that at least once in recent memory winter actually was cancelled, pretty much for the whole lower 48. It was ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 GEFS finally getting a clue, keeps trough buried in the west. #SEwarmth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 Patterns gonna repeat, haters gonna hate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usmeagle2005 Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 I knew it was going to stay warm, it's like in October/November.... just going to stay in the 60's and 70's and pattern change will be 10-15 days out. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 32 minutes ago, packbacker said: GEFS finally getting a clue, keeps trough buried in the west. #SEwarmth Oh snap.... Didn't see that coming. Before we line up at the cliff, let's see if it has legs on later runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timothy Clyde Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 GEFS starting to align with my idea, should see the cold wintry window open up second week of February or later not before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 DT's thoughts for the AM: Wxrisk.com 25 mins · **ALERT! ** - High probability of MAJOR WEATHER EVENT FOR CENTRAL & EASTERN US JAN 22-25 -- leading to 1st SIGNIFICANT NEW ENGLAND SNOWSTORM JAN 25 DETAILS -massive pattern change under way in this time frame (JAN 22-27) will develop strong LOW over TX / OK 1/22 that will track into MO/ central ILL 1/23 then into southern Great lakes 1/24 . This low will bring SIGNIFICANT severe wx outbreak for Delta/ Tn valley possibly Ohio valley . Then the LOW will " die" over southern great Lakes as a new LOW forms off NJ coast and bring New England - especially interior New England - its first SIGNIFICANT snow of the season *** AFTER this Low passes new England JAN 25-26 Winter will return to VA MD NC DEL WVa and all of eastern US for FEB. FULL details on new edition of THIS WEEK IN WEATHER late Sunday night -- might not be until 1130pm 19 Comments 31 Shares Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 I'm glad the MA is looking good, cause the 12z GFS , was purely abysmal! Temp anomalies pretty much bleed red , the whole run and strengthen over the East by the last frame, which takes us to the 31st! Delayed , but not denied!! It's coming , I promise! Timothy Clown, might be right! #PATTERNCHANGEISREAL #WHERESBRICK #SAVEBRICK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 I think we have a few members who are on the verge of losing their marbles this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 19 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: I'm glad the MA is looking good, cause the 12z GFS , was purely abysmal! Temp anomalies pretty much bleed red , the whole run and strengthen over the East by the last frame, which takes us to the 31st! Delayed , but not denied!! It's coming , I promise! Timothy Clown, might be right! #PATTERNCHANGEISREAL #WHERESBRICK #SAVEBRICK Winter cancel! That darn GFS good as gospel.............. NEVER FEAR JB saves Winter!!! Just seen Avenger.. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 14 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: I think we have a few members who are on the verge of losing their marbles this year. Present! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 0z eps was a picture of beauty last night. Trough in the east, west coast ridge. Complete opposite of gefs, the yo yo model. Don't get played. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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