NCSNOW Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 Want layman's terms just look at noaa week 3 to 4 expiermental outlook. Saw it posted on other board. Let's pray it verefies and we all might be doing what I was doing this time last week, watching it thump snow outside the window. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lookingnorth Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 7 hours ago, BIG FROSTY said: How does Ontario have warmer 850 mb temps than 75% of the U.S.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 7 minutes ago, lookingnorth said: How does Ontario have warmer 850 mb temps than 75% of the U.S.? Strat warming??!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 For the CVSv2 lovers out there 4x daily CFSv2 runs averaged for 3 days (12 CFSv2 runs) for February. It's not often we see the CFSv2 average cold for a 3-day mean, it's done it before and backed off to warmth or not as cold, but it's rare. One day average (last 4 runs) Last 20 ensemble runs averaged for Jan 28-Feb 2 and Jan 31 to Feb 5 We'll see if the CFSv2 public maps trend colder again, it would be good to see it consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 This is what I'm largely talking about when I say fantasy storms in the LR. This will change with the 06z run but it just demonstrates what the upcoming pattern is capable of. Confluence swinging down with a s/w digging, +PNA ridge on the west. Not far from being a major east coast snowstorm, verbatim it's too negatively tilted but then again that's critiquing a 384hr image on the GFS. People often ask why you would even look at a frame if it's going to change. It's the same reason you look at control runs, etc...trying to see if the modeling is spitting out any hints. We're 12+ days away, so really all you have are ensemble means to go on for the pattern evolution (500mb) and sometimes those aren't good enough for folks and they want to see it actually produce something on the east...well, it's at our doorstep. and the 00z Euro just put a 979mb low off the coast of South Carolina. Cold lacking and of course Day 10 is a bit too early to get it here, but it's a weird look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 Two runs of cold for the CFSv2, not bad.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 9 hours ago, BIG FROSTY said: WXSOUTH @WxSouth 7m7 minutes ago This is going to have big ramifications South and East by late Jan/Early Feb. Getcha some of this Mack!!! Very strong west based -NAO block (the Baffin block). It's a feature that's usually present in big SE snow events. See the latest Euro. This would be a huge event for higher elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 From RaleighWx: Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 00z EPS 10mb map is pretty impressive. Strat polar vortex dislodged all the way to Scandinavia. Major warming/ridge over NP and western NA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 And again: Allan Huffman @RaleighWx Still way out but pattern could favor winter weather threats for MA/SE very late Jan/early Feb. But as of now just speculation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 4 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: From RaleighWx: Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 00z EPS 10mb map is pretty impressive. Strat polar vortex dislodged all the way to Scandinavia. Major warming/ridge over NP and western NA. Yep, GEFS and GFS has been showing this for a few days. It's a little out of the Op Euro's range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 4 minutes ago, Jon said: Yep, GEFS and GFS has been showing this for a few days. It's a little out of the Op Euro's range. These things usually have a way of disappearing, but this has been showing up consistently. Hopefully, it continues to show up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: These things usually have a way of disappearing, but this has been showing up consistently. Hopefully, it continues to show up. Pack?? Good morning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: Pack?? Good morning! Mornin', Tim! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 7 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Mornin', Tim! Lol! Nice! its hard to not be slightly excited, but if hate to waste all these broken mica, on a mirage! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 Packbacker has seen these latest runs and is in hibernation until they invariably flip back to warm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 5 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Lol! Nice! its hard to not be slightly excited, but if hate to waste all these broken mica, on a mirage! Yeah, we're racking up the broken mic parts in a hurry. Hopefully, these things are moving closer in time. It seems like they are...at least for now. MichaelJ, Pack probably hasn't seen any models yet. He's probably too busy putting down pre-emergent! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 33 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: And again: Allan Huffman @RaleighWx Still way out but pattern could favor winter weather threats for MA/SE very late Jan/early Feb. But as of now just speculation. We need to hold off until we hear from Timothy clark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timothy Clyde Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 26 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: We need to hold off until we hear from Timothy clark. Sub 980mb off SC? Um no. That doesn't even deserve a response. Late Jan pattern doesn't favor a storm of that strength and track. With lack of cold air establishment I see on other models, I would be more worried about a Severe Weather Outbreak for parts of Georgia westward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timothy Clyde Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 Also south-western NC, TN, AL, MISS could easily see some very strong storms. Too far out to see how the linear progression goes over the Apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 8 hours ago, Jon said: For the CVSv2 lovers out there 4x daily CFSv2 runs averaged for 3 days (12 CFSv2 runs) for February. It's not often we see the CFSv2 average cold for a 3-day mean, it's done it before and backed off to warmth or not as cold, but it's rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timothy Clyde Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 I buy the cold after the big storm of gusty winds and some tornadoes. That would be very climo like. It will wash itself out over the Carolinas then we will be tracking something wintry the second week of February or later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 There is increasing data suggesting that we may avoid a 2nd year Nina next winter which have been some of the worst in the SE for cold and snow...with a warm neutral or weak Nino not out of the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 I do agree with Wilkes about the 979 low on the SC coast. Prolly not gonna happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 Looks like Inauguration weekend could feature some severe weather in the SE..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 26 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: I do agree with Wilkes about the 979 low on the SC coast. Prolly not gonna happen. But if it is, this would be the right kind of pattern. Jet stream very relaxed and primed for some big cut off lows like our late winter/early Spring patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 10 minutes ago, Wow said: But if it is, this would be the right kind of pattern. Jet stream very relaxed and primed for some big cut off lows like our late winter/early Spring patterns. Yeah, agreed. When you get a huge block up there, you can get anomalous events. Lows of that magnitude and in that location would certainly qualify as anomalous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 12 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Yeah, agreed. When you get a huge block up there, you can get anomalous events. Lows of that magnitude and in that location would certainly qualify as anomalous. Could definitely happen, the lack of cold air should be a concern!? The mountains score 2 feet and everyone else gets a sorry, cold rain! wait, forgot this was an ULL, it'll make its own cold air!! mic drop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Could definitely happen, the lack of cold air should be a concern!? The mountains score 2 feet and everyone else gets a sorry, cold rain! wait, forgot this was an ULL, it'll make its own cold air!! mic drop Yeah, it's probably raining as shown. Need a strong high to the N or NW. We're going to need a restock on the mic aisle over the next couple of weeks, methinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 Latest GFS shows a really strong storm near the end of the month. Granted its an Apps runner but we still have time for this thing to adjust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 23 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Could definitely happen, the lack of cold air should be a concern!? The mountains score 2 feet and everyone else gets a sorry, cold rain! wait, forgot this was an ULL, it'll make its own cold air!! mic drop Actually the 0 850 line is from west charlotte to Roxboro with low bombing out right off charleston. For giggles it would be Mtn crusher no doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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