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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017


buckeyefan1

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25 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

Yeah but you are high in elevation. It's just hard to imagine a lower elevation area in the south being -24.

Pretty sure Atlanta was-8.  Tampa 12 and Jacksonville 6 or 7.  That outbreak was just crazy.  It more or less came straight south from around Michigan or Wisconsin I believe with little east movement.  The polar vortex was basically over the US.

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1985/us0120.php#picture

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51 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Pretty sure Atlanta was-8.  Tampa 12 and Jacksonville 6 or 7.  That outbreak was just crazy.  It more or less came straight south from around Michigan or Wisconsin I believe with little east movement.  The polar vortex was basically over the US.

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1985/us0120.php#picture

Wow pretty crazy! Thanks for taking the time to post in our forum. 

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3 hours ago, packbacker said:

Well even the dud Nina winters has snow in Feb...2013, 2012, 2008 and 2006 had a big western NC snow.  Come end of Jan we will be well AN (southeast).   Feels fortunate to have any snow/ice up to this point actually. 

As we cross the halfway point of met winter this weekend, Greensboro pti is -5 for the first 11 days of January. In fact Greensboro will end up Below Normal temp wise for the first 6 weeks of winter and well over 100% snowfall. Regardless of how bad the temps end for  met winter D,J,F , the winter will go down most likely as a front loaded winter. We are already guranteed to end up above normal for seasonal snowfall average. That being said,  the pattern we've had isn't worthy of writing a novel about. Way better than last year but aside from a stellar 5 day stretch the rest has been just meh.

Agree I think we get 2 more windows of opportunities to score. Late Jan into early Feb and possibly a early march hail mary, but that will favor mtns, northern foothills imo.  And kudos to Met, pattern in pacific is gonna start to reshuffle into something. It's transitioning some now. So as usual I expect the nao/ao to dip late March/April but it's to late for us by that time.

It was sad today to ride to work o snow packed side roads and everything still buried in snow, only to walk out of work today and 80 percent had disappeared. 

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1 hour ago, franklin NCwx said:

It's not that hard west of the mtns as it is east of the mtns. I think knoxville is around 1000ft.

Correct, much harder East of the mtns with down sloping winds. GSP only got to -4 which isn't that low compared to most areas. The record there is -6 which happened in the 60s. Still, there were some pretty low temps in SC that night. All-time state record of -19 at Caesers Head that night. I bet Pinnacle or Sassafras made it to -20 or lower but no stations there then. I was a kid but it made it down to -14 IMBY at Dacusville, and my dad said the wind chill was incredible. I'd love to see something like that again. Last time I remember seeing below zero IMBY was Feb 96.

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5 hours ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

I'm watching a youtube video from Jan 1985 and the map is showing the wind chill in Nashville at -56 !

when I went to work that night the windchill in Asheville was -60.  worked on the railroad switching box cars in Canton, we could only go out for 15 minutes at a time, couldn't believe it that night.

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27 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said:

Ensembles showing a Nino like pattern. 

Yep been noticing that the past couple of days. Its becoming a  more consistent look.  The stj is gonna be throwing lots of goods late jan into Feb. If we can get the cold to press right there is a much higher opportunity to not just score but score a Big Dog and maybe more than one. 

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1 hour ago, Jon said:

CFSv2 losing +++anomalies it's a good sign, late month runs hold more utility but it's good to see some blues in there.
d04d15d432d05651c9a07844e9e52fc4.gif

JMA suggests +PNA, colder on east, looks like split flow for Jan 28-Feb 10

b49d6775f9ddbf766b364b458d472b02.png

 

 


My images don't seem to be loading, try this link to view them:
http://imgur.com/a/sJeoG

 

Split Flows are the best. Robert use to Love them and for good reason.

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10 hours ago, NCSNOW said:

As we cross the halfway point of met winter this weekend, Greensboro pti is -5 for the first 11 days of January. In fact Greensboro will end up Below Normal temp wise for the first 6 weeks of winter and well over 100% snowfall. Regardless of how bad the temps end for  met winter D,J,F , the winter will go down most likely as a front loaded winter. We are already guranteed to end up above normal for seasonal snowfall average. That being said,  the pattern we've had isn't worthy of writing a novel about. Way better than last year but aside from a stellar 5 day stretch the rest has been just meh.

Agree I think we get 2 more windows of opportunities to score. Late Jan into early Feb and possibly a early march hail mary, but that will favor mtns, northern foothills imo.  And kudos to Met, pattern in pacific is gonna start to reshuffle into something. It's transitioning some now. So as usual I expect the nao/ao to dip late March/April but it's to late for us by that time.

It was sad today to ride to work o snow packed side roads and everything still buried in snow, only to walk out of work today and 80 percent had disappeared. 

Yes I know what a great run GSO has been on. Off the top of my head I think you have had 7 6" snow events since 09/10....nice!  Way above average, great to see.  RDU has had 1 in that timeframe.  

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Alaska is in the freezer so we are going to roast for several weeks boys. Those harping on the end of the month are going to be sourly disappointed.

HOWEVER...

Can someone tell me the last time the climo areas (mountains,foothills,northern piedmont) of NC/VA were skunked for all of February and March? Seems like many many years and not within recent memory. May the odds be in your favor for one additional major event.

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7 minutes ago, Timothy Clyde said:

Alaska is in the freezer so we are going to roast for several weeks boys. Those harping on the end of the month are going to be sourly disappointed.

HOWEVER...

Can someone tell me the last time the climo areas (mountains,foothills,northern piedmont) of NC/VA were skunked for all of February and March? Seems like many many years and not within recent memory. May the odds be in your favor for one additional major event.

I believe you are wrong again. Alaska can be cold and we can be too. It all about where the blocking sets up. The last time we where skunked in February and March was 2012. We are off to a decent start and I think the pattern will play out as advertised. A lot down east have already exceeded there snow annually.

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