pcbjr Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 1 hour ago, Jon said: big firs step, but Day 15 12z Jan 26th...about the time I expect our first look. I hope you're right, Jon, (as every day is precious now) but I'll put $5.00 on February 3 - 5 as the kicker. Phil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 20 minutes ago, pcbjr said: I hope you're right, Jon, (as every day is precious now) but I'll put $5.00 on February 3 - 5 as the kicker. Phil Yep that sun angle is increasing a little more each day and the days are already noticeably longer. Spring will be here soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 I hope you're right, Jon, (as every day is precious now) but I'll put $5.00 on February 3 - 5 as the kicker. PhilWell, it's likely a 10-day type shot wrt timing, model could be too soon. So yeah, last few days of Jan thru first week of Feb is the time frame. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 25 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: Spring will be here soon. March - 1st week or so - and then right in to summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 1 minute ago, pcbjr said: March - 1st week or so - and then right in to summer If this year is anything like 2012 then it will be summer by March for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 1 minute ago, Jon said: Well, it's likely a 10-day type shot wrt timing, model could be too soon. So yeah, last few days of Jan thru first week of Feb is the time frame. Jon - as I said in my PM you couldn't open the links on until you got to your laptop -- Yup! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 2 hours ago, packbacker said: This winter is getting progressively warmer...typical Nina. I think Feb could be really ugly and thus timing won't have anything to do with it. I imagine if I plotted the Feb's of Nina's that were AN in the SE for Dec/Jan it wouldn't be pretty. We had our chance at a snowy Nina... Pack,. I wonder if all those Febs were snow busts though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 I like our chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 4 minutes ago, Met1985 said: I like our chances. I do too, I think we have a few good chances coming before March breaks warm!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 Just now, BIG FROSTY said: I do too, I think we have a few good chances coming before March breaks warm!!! I do too. I think we have a chance at the end of the month into the first of February then another chance at the end of February. I think will all the early summer calls there will be a cliche in the pattern. I think as we get into March we see a warm up but then cold with big blocking coming through but too late for most in the SE. I could be wrong but thats how I think it will evolve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shahroz98 Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 2 hours ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: Wasn't the winter of 2010-11 a La Nina year? That was one of the best years for cold and snow in recent memory around here. Yeah, that year was the only year i got a solid 6-8 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 51 minutes ago, pcbjr said: Jon - as I said in my PM you couldn't open the links on until you got to your laptop -- Yup! Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 1h1 hour ago 12z ECMWF Ensemble showed a cooler looking pattern returning by last week of January. Perhaps rushed, but lines up with my thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 25 minutes ago, Met1985 said: I do too. I think we have a chance at the end of the month into the first of February then another chance at the end of February. I think will all the early summer calls there will be a cliche in the pattern. I think as we get into March we see a warm up but then cold with big blocking coming through but too late for most in the SE. I could be wrong but thats how I think it will evolve. JB thinks LATE spring for eastern half of nation? IDK Just passing info along!! Joe D'Aleo said cold may return week after next, which puts into the last week... I feel good about the pattern MJO looks COLD on GFS, JMA, Euro Phase 1 coming up...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timothy Clyde Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 5 minutes ago, pcbjr said: Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 1h1 hour ago 12z ECMWF Ensemble showed a cooler looking pattern returning by last week of January. Perhaps rushed, but lines up with my thinking. I very much agree with this, not sure why everyone jumped on me for saying about the same thing the past few days. Instead of perhaps, I am very much confident it is too quick its a like the north-west trend thing, happens all the time. Watch second or third week of February no sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 3 hours ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: Wasn't the winter of 2010-11 a La Nina year? That was one of the best years for cold and snow in recent memory around here. I believe that was an east based La Niña and at some point mid winter it began shifting more into being central based. As soon as that occurred the blocking broke down and winter basically ended after 2/1 for most of the eastern US Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 15 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: MJO looks COLD on GFS, JMA, Euro Phase 1 coming up...... Phase 1 and then 2 -> could be a lot worse ... let's hope some stars align and God is gracious before March rolls in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 14 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I believe that was an east based La Niña and at some point mid winter it began shifting more into being central based. As soon as that occurred the blocking broke down and winter basically ended after 2/1 for most of the eastern US -VP has been buried on 120e so far this winter but GEFS shows that changing and I would guess EPS does too with what it's hinting. You buying shift of trop forcing...#ninopattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 1 hour ago, CaryWx said: Pack,. I wonder if all those Febs were snow busts though Well even the dud Nina winters has snow in Feb...2013, 2012, 2008 and 2006 had a big western NC snow. Come end of Jan we will be well AN (southeast). Feels fortunate to have any snow/ice up to this point actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 1 hour ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: Yep that sun angle is increasing a little more each day and the days are already noticeably longer. Spring will be here soon. Feb 1899 says " screw your sun angle" Flurries in Miami and Bahamas coldest outbreak on record, sun angle didn't even save Miami Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 Different set up but here's hoping (text attached) Feb 1899.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 Does anyone remember the Jan 1985 cold wave ? It was an incredible -24 in Knoxville ! That's almost hard to believe. There must have been a thick snowcover in order to support those kind of temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 GEFS trying to short change me on the torch...ugghh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillT Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 5 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: Does anyone remember the Jan 1985 cold wave ? It was an incredible -24 in Knoxville ! That's almost hard to believe. There must have been a thick snowcover in order to support those kind of temps. i was attending the Professional Academy of Broadcasting that year in knoxville, went to Ky. for the weekend and the pipes in the apartment above our had burst and flooded ours......we left the heat on, they had not....so yes we recall that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: Does anyone remember the Jan 1985 cold wave ? It was an incredible -24 in Knoxville ! That's almost hard to believe. There must have been a thick snowcover in order to support those kind of temps. Actually there was no snow cover at least not here in NC where we recorded -4 here at PGV....most stations in NC were snow free and recorded their record lowest temps ever.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 That was cold! 10º here. But - perspective - the 1985 month of January stared and ended here near 80º. Jan 21 1985 history for here: Temperature Mean Temperature 19 °F Max Temperature 28 °F Min Temperature 10 °F All it takes is one blast to skew averages! Still progging a N Jan when all is averaged in, and BN and wet Feb .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 31 minutes ago, packbacker said: GEFS trying to short change me on the torch...ugghh The euro looks like it wanted to undercut the warmth (like day 14 above) at day 10. Not real cold air but at least normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 1 hour ago, Timothy Clyde said: I very much agree with this, not sure why everyone jumped on me for saying about the same thing the past few days. Instead of perhaps, I am very much confident it is too quick its a like the north-west trend thing, happens all the time. Watch second or third week of February no sooner. The last week of January has ensemble support though linging with the MJO. Also you where wrong about the snow amounts here in the mountains. You said the models where showing fantasy snow in the mountains and said they where wrong. No you where wrong with no facts to back your statements up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 1 hour ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: Does anyone remember the Jan 1985 cold wave ? It was an incredible -24 in Knoxville ! That's almost hard to believe. There must have been a thick snowcover in order to support those kind of temps. Three years ago we had -13 degrees with no snow cover. It's not that hard to believe. It's all about patterns. We have just been stuck in absolutely crappy patterns for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 Just now, Met1985 said: Three years ago we had -13 degrees with no snow cover. It's not that hard to believe. It's all about patterns. We have just been stuck in absolutely crappy patterns for awhile. Yeah but you are high in elevation. It's just hard to imagine a lower elevation area in the south being -24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 20 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: Yeah but you are high in elevation. It's just hard to imagine a lower elevation area in the south being -24. It's not that hard west of the mtns as it is east of the mtns. I think knoxville is around 1000ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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