pcbjr Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, packbacker said: #winterover? short term Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 Could be a real close call for a little freezing rain Tuesday night? Nothing big if anything freezing. TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG IN THE AFTERNOON. NOT AS COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. .TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. AREAS OF FOG. A CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. NOT AS COOL. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE MID 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT. But until then CCCold is the word........... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY... .TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. COLD WITH LOWS AROUND 4 ABOVE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. .MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. .MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. COLD WITH LOWS AROUND 13. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 37 minutes ago, packbacker said: I hope this is wrong...if the trop PV heads over to AK/Siberia into the last week of Jan it will take a long time to get out of that pattern. EPS was wrong about the 10" yesterday so it's probably wrong about this. Would be fun though....#winterover? Agree Pack- I think winter is over. A great big endless torch. I am already looking at next winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 Agree Pack- I think winter is over. A great big endless torch. I am already looking at next winter You are joking, right? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiltedStorm Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 Agree Pack- I think winter is over. A great big endless torch. I am already looking at next winter You base that statement on?Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, TiltedStorm said: You base that statement on? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk The original packbacker statement was not so categorical, just a statement of concern at the position of the PV as modeled by the euro ensemble ( I presume the mean) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 Everyone take a 2 week break till the pattern comes back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 ^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 1 hour ago, NC_hailstorm said: Everyone take a 2 week break till the pattern comes back. Don't worry, I'm not going anywhere (raises pinky finger to mouth like Dr. Evil) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 This is the 6z(not 18z) GFS para for next Sunday. Doesn't show much but man is that a strong well place high to the north: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 11 minutes ago, FallsLake said: This is the 6z(not 18z) GFS para for next Sunday. Doesn't show much 18Z shows less, but then it is the 18Z. Not to worry - the pattern will return on the 0Z and 12Z runs (but it'll be about 2 to 3 weeks - more likely 3) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 and from DT - should anyone have hopes Wxrisk.com updated their profile picture. 45 mins · heat miser is up and running... - for mid JANUARY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 2 hours ago, cbmclean said: The original packbacker statement was not so categorical, just a statement of concern at the position of the PV as modeled by the euro ensemble ( I presume the mean) Yep...that was meant as I don't know but personally I don't think so....#dieNina Agree on above statement about checking back in mid Jan or so. Enjoy the warmth until then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 Anthony MasielloThe universal "winter's not over signal" for this winter is showing up in the ensembles beyond day 10. Look over in the eastern hemisphere.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 1m1 minute ago 30 mb sudden strat warming over NW Canada day 8-16 30C rise. Will pull 500 mb ridge back into NW Canada late Jan-Feb eastern trof results @BigJoeBastardi 2m2 minutes ago Joe Bastardi Retweeted Joe Bast 1 minute ago Joe Bastardi Retwe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timothy Clyde Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 I think the models are bringing the cold back too quickly I don't believe there will be any wintry threats even through the first week of February. Second week on possibly but only saying that because of the long range uncertainty. Believe there will still be another event but likely for climo areas. This could come as late as the 3rd week of February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 2m2 minutes ago Joe Bastardi Retweeted Joe Bastardi note monster ridge comes first before trough develops late Jan Feb into March in east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timothy Clyde Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 I suggest coming back the second week of February and we might be tracking cold air to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 17 minutes ago, Timothy Clyde said: I suggest coming back the second week of February and we might be tracking cold air to work with. Guess we'll see ya in about a month then!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarolinaCrusher2000 Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 24 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 2m2 minutes ago Joe Bastardi Retweeted Joe Bastardi note monster ridge comes first before trough develops late Jan Feb into March in east Thanks. That's great too know that the ridge will not be our final nail in the coffin for the winter. I was hoping we could keep the majority of our North to South snow cover, but we may just have to restart winter again at the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 28 minutes ago, Timothy Clyde said: I suggest coming back the second week of February and we might be tracking cold air to work with. That's not hard to figure. History shows we normally tracking a storm between Feb 10th-20th every year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 By Thursday pti, Greensboro will be below normal temp wise for met winter and above normal snowfall already achieving a seasons worth of snow. Been a long time since we just about crossed the halfway mark of met winter and could make those claims. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 Not sure I've ever see an overall warm look like this at the hart of winter. Day 10 euro 850 temps: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 24 minutes ago, FallsLake said: Not sure I've ever see an overall warm look like this at the hart of winter. Day 10 euro 850 temps: Yea I'm already sending the punter out on the field for Friday January 13- Thursday January 19. That's as far as I'm willing to go. By then I'll evaluate if I need to call him back out and punt another week. Think by mid to late week well be able to see the next pattern change on LR ens/ models, trough in the east. Not sure we'll get another cold press like we are currently having this winter, so our next opportunity if we get one will have to go back to the traditional late winter NE HP in position, cad type deal for our cold. Probably would get burnt, but I wouldn't mind taking a shot with a big coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 1 hour ago, NCSNOW said: By Thursday pti, Greensboro will be below normal temp wise for met winter and above normal snowfall already achieving a seasons worth of snow. Been a long time since we just about crossed the halfway mark of met winter and could make those claims. But hasn't GSO done quite well the last several years relative to average snowfall, last year being an exception? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 49 minutes ago, FallsLake said: Not sure I've ever see an overall warm look like this at the hart of winter. Day 10 euro 850 temps: I know...when i looked at the euro this morning..i was pretty shocked.....for all of north america, it looked like a map you would see in april or even early may at 850mb. This is an all new level of suckage for mid january. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 22 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: But hasn't GSO done quite well the last several years relative to average snowfall, last year being an exception? Yes. Never get shutout and we've had some nice backend to winters the past couple years. Last year just timed one up right to avoid shutout in a miserable winter pattern. Also I'm 50/50 on second half of winter. Thought it would be front-loaded and it has been for the most part. Well see, it's never good to be entering the dead f winter seeing a 850 map like the one above from the euro. Jan 5 through Valentines day is really our peak season to score in SE. Sure we hits some Dec events and quite a few late Feb and early March deals, but for the most part odds start going down after v day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 33 minutes ago, Lookout said: I know...when i looked at the euro this morning..i was pretty shocked.....for all of north america, it looked like a map you would see in april or even early may at 850mb. This is an all new level of suckage for mid january. That ought to allow for some slight erosion of the snow pack to our north. Sigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 42 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Yes. Never get shutout and we've had some nice backend to winters the past couple years. Last year just timed one up right to avoid shutout in a miserable winter pattern. Also I'm 50/50 on second half of winter. Thought it would be front-loaded and it has been for the most part. Well see, it's never good to be entering the dead f winter seeing a 850 map like the one above from the euro. Jan 5 through Valentines day is really our peak season to score in SE. Sure we hits some Dec events and quite a few late Feb and early March deals, but for the most part odds start going down after v day. Cant say for sure whether or not we return to the horrible pattern in late Dec. Quite dismal looking as of right now. This time around, the warmth gets more folks than just the southeast crowd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 17 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: That ought to allow for some slight erosion of the snow pack to our north. Sigh. It's one of those years where the pattern is back and forth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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