Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017

[NCSNOW]

Looks like we are going to have a big cutoff low out in the 4 corners in about a week in addition to big 1040+hp sliding across lower Canada and the NE. Also our best friend ser is close by. So about all that could produce is a app runner, cutter miller B ice into cad region. Outside of that nothing looks good on the world famous GFS.

I was reading our post from the day after Christmas and it wasn't a pretty picture long range and 12 days latter wala. So LR has looked like crap several times since Nov only to turn out normal save a couple days.

I haven't been a big fan of February this season, thought best shots would be first half of winter. Next weekend is the halfway mark to met winter so hopefully when we look in the crystal ball next weekend it looks more promising. It sounds like JB thinks as we get toward late month into Feb we look pretty good or that's the vibe I was getting.

[FallsLake]

2 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Looks like we are going to have a big cutoff low out in the 4 corners in about a week in addition to big 1040+hp sliding across lower Canada and the NE. Also our best friend ser is close by. So about all that could produce is a app runner, cutter miller B ice into cad region. Outside of that nothing looks good on the world famous GFS.

I was reading our post from the day after Christmas and it wasn't a pretty picture long range and 12 days latter wala. So LR has looked like crap several times since Nov only to turn out normal save a couple days.

I haven't been a big fan of February this season, thought best shots would be first half of winter. Next weekend is the halfway mark to met winter so hopefully when we look in the crystal ball next weekend it looks more promising. It sounds like JB thinks as we get toward late month into Feb we look pretty good or that's the vibe I was getting.

I'm hopeful for February as well, but it could easily end of bad as well. I think for some of us it was lucky to get this winter storm. I don't think it ends up being the only one but you never know (especially with what we've been seeing pattern wise).

[BIG FROSTY]

7 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Looks like we are going to have a big cutoff low out in the 4 corners in about a week in addition to big 1040+hp sliding across lower Canada and the NE. Also our best friend ser is close by. So about all that could produce is a app runner, cutter miller B ice into cad region. Outside of that nothing looks good on the world famous GFS.

I was reading our post from the day after Christmas and it wasn't a pretty picture long range and 12 days latter wala. So LR has looked like crap several times since Nov only to turn out normal save a couple days.

I haven't been a big fan of February this season, thought best shots would be first half of winter. Next weekend is the halfway mark to met winter so hopefully when we look in the crystal ball next weekend it looks more promising. It sounds like JB thinks as we get toward late month into Feb we look pretty good or that's the vibe I was getting.

Good vibes, Feb and March may give us some good chances for winter weather? There's more than one out there saying last half of winter looks good in the east. LC says Feb into March wintry in the east.... Probably starts turning around by January 20 or soon after... I doubt we stay in the 60's for very long.... 

[BIG FROSTY]

33 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

Trying to look on the bright side, the Sierra Nevada mountains will get nearly 100 additional inches of snow (during the next 10 days). The high snowfall amounts also are being seen across the entire Rockies. Looks like their water worries will be over come spring.

Yes, That's a good thing. Been dry there a long time...... I think we will have several more opportunities for winter storms before spring! All these LR Indices change ever few days with the models. In a week LR may look great? Who knows weather is ever changing, So I don't take them as gospel.... I do realize that's all we've got to go by for best guess. JMO 

[Cold Rain]

From Larry Cosgrove:

EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST
(Between Day 11 And Day 15)

How Long Will The January Thaw Last? And What Will Follow?

From looking at the computer model and analog forecasts, it seems pretty certain that something approximating the "January Thaw" will be affecting most of the nation between January 13 and 22. But the question many forecasters have on their minds is, "Is winter over"? If you look at past history of the season so far, the volatile pattern swings back and forth between intense cold snaps and bizarre warm-up, with the tendency for the milder air to establish its presence over the southern and eastern tiers of the nation. This alignment has been repeated in the first week of January. So right off the bat we can say that any major surges of warmth have a tendency to be pushed out by portions of the vast cold air field across Canada, aided and abetted by the impressive snowpack that is touching the Gulf Coast at this time.

Keep in mind that I do not expect that snow cover to stay in the Deep South. The ice and snow field may actually recede into the far northern tier of the country to the right of the Continental Divide during the middle of the month. But here, climatology and the analogs point out that the southern branch wind field will work its magic, likely setting up a broad storm near Baja California by the end of the third week of the month. This is not a La Nina winter; rather, this is a negative/neutral ENSO signal that has sometimes displayed tendencies like an El Nino, with an impressive subtropical jet stream. If the ECMWF and GFS series are correct with energy from the northern jet stream digging through the Intermountain Region and phasing with the lower latitude wind maximum, the resultant cyclone will roll through Texas and into the lower Great Lakes around January 22 - 24. Such a track, of course, would pull the mean 500MB trough yet again into the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley. Cold air drainage into the western 2/3 of the nation would surely follow.

But a potentially new rub shows up in the weekly forecasts of the CFS and ECMWF platforms: strong -EPO/+PNA ridging from Alaska to California. The analog depiction seems a little fast with this development (January 22), but I am confident that a warm/dry West vs. cold/stormy Central East configuration is likely to occur shortly thereafter, and quite possibly last through February and the first half of March. The 1996 comparison has some value here, albeit with a colder outcome like 2014 or 2015. If dual blocking signatures emerge again along the entire Pacific shoreline and Greenland, the most recent Arctic intrusion will seem like just "part of the pattern" of the winter of 2016-2017.

With some more eastern U.S. snow and ice events thrown into the mix, just for fun.

Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE on
Saturday, January 7, 2017 at 6:30 PM.



 

[BIG FROSTY]

8 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

From Larry Cosgrove:

EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST
(Between Day 11 And Day 15)

How Long Will The January Thaw Last? And What Will Follow?

From looking at the computer model and analog forecasts, it seems pretty certain that something approximating the "January Thaw" will be affecting most of the nation between January 13 and 22. But the question many forecasters have on their minds is, "Is winter over"? If you look at past history of the season so far, the volatile pattern swings back and forth between intense cold snaps and bizarre warm-up, with the tendency for the milder air to establish its presence over the southern and eastern tiers of the nation. This alignment has been repeated in the first week of January. So right off the bat we can say that any major surges of warmth have a tendency to be pushed out by portions of the vast cold air field across Canada, aided and abetted by the impressive snowpack that is touching the Gulf Coast at this time.

Keep in mind that I do not expect that snow cover to stay in the Deep South. The ice and snow field may actually recede into the far northern tier of the country to the right of the Continental Divide during the middle of the month. But here, climatology and the analogs point out that the southern branch wind field will work its magic, likely setting up a broad storm near Baja California by the end of the third week of the month. This is not a La Nina winter; rather, this is a negative/neutral ENSO signal that has sometimes displayed tendencies like an El Nino, with an impressive subtropical jet stream. If the ECMWF and GFS series are correct with energy from the northern jet stream digging through the Intermountain Region and phasing with the lower latitude wind maximum, the resultant cyclone will roll through Texas and into the lower Great Lakes around January 22 - 24. Such a track, of course, would pull the mean 500MB trough yet again into the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley. Cold air drainage into the western 2/3 of the nation would surely follow.

But a potentially new rub shows up in the weekly forecasts of the CFS and ECMWF platforms: strong -EPO/+PNA ridging from Alaska to California. The analog depiction seems a little fast with this development (January 22), but I am confident that a warm/dry West vs. cold/stormy Central East configuration is likely to occur shortly thereafter, and quite possibly last through February and the first half of March. The 1996 comparison has some value here, albeit with a colder outcome like 2014 or 2015. If dual blocking signatures emerge again along the entire Pacific shoreline and Greenland, the most recent Arctic intrusion will seem like just "part of the pattern" of the winter of 2016-2017.

With some more eastern U.S. snow and ice events thrown into the mix, just for fun.

Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE on
Saturday, January 7, 2017 at 6:30 PM.



 

Yep, That's what I was referring to in my post, He and JB thinks last half of winter will generally be cold/stormy  in the east.

[Jon]

From Larry Cosgrove:

EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST
(Between Day 11 And Day 15)

How Long Will The January Thaw Last? And What Will Follow?

From looking at the computer model and analog forecasts, it seems pretty certain that something approximating the "January Thaw" will be affecting most of the nation between January 13 and 22. But the question many forecasters have on their minds is, "Is winter over"? If you look at past history of the season so far, the volatile pattern swings back and forth between intense cold snaps and bizarre warm-up, with the tendency for the milder air to establish its presence over the southern and eastern tiers of the nation. This alignment has been repeated in the first week of January. So right off the bat we can say that any major surges of warmth have a tendency to be pushed out by portions of the vast cold air field across Canada, aided and abetted by the impressive snowpack that is touching the Gulf Coast at this time.

Keep in mind that I do not expect that snow cover to stay in the Deep South. The ice and snow field may actually recede into the far northern tier of the country to the right of the Continental Divide during the middle of the month. But here, climatology and the analogs point out that the southern branch wind field will work its magic, likely setting up a broad storm near Baja California by the end of the third week of the month. This is not a La Nina winter; rather, this is a negative/neutral ENSO signal that has sometimes displayed tendencies like an El Nino, with an impressive subtropical jet stream. If the ECMWF and GFS series are correct with energy from the northern jet stream digging through the Intermountain Region and phasing with the lower latitude wind maximum, the resultant cyclone will roll through Texas and into the lower Great Lakes around January 22 - 24. Such a track, of course, would pull the mean 500MB trough yet again into the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley. Cold air drainage into the western 2/3 of the nation would surely follow.

But a potentially new rub shows up in the weekly forecasts of the CFS and ECMWF platforms: strong -EPO/+PNA ridging from Alaska to California. The analog depiction seems a little fast with this development (January 22), but I am confident that a warm/dry West vs. cold/stormy Central East configuration is likely to occur shortly thereafter, and quite possibly last through February and the first half of March. The 1996 comparison has some value here, albeit with a colder outcome like 2014 or 2015. If dual blocking signatures emerge again along the entire Pacific shoreline and Greenland, the most recent Arctic intrusion will seem like just "part of the pattern" of the winter of 2016-2017.

With some more eastern U.S. snow and ice events thrown into the mix, just for fun.

Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE on
Saturday, January 7, 2017 at 6:30 PM.



 

I agree with Larry more or less. I believe March torches, but I'm highly optimistic for the last week of Jan into early Feb. Euro weeklies are promising and we'll see what they show as we inch closer. The fact that we will be getting a solid +PNA is hopeful. Now let's try to get a nice high set up in the right place so we don't have to worry about sleet - that will be the day, huh.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[packbacker]

I am not as optimistic as LC or JB about a sustained cold and stormy Feb into early March.   So far this winter we had roughly a 7-10 day period BN in Dec, with a blowtorch the next almost 3 weeks, we are now going through another BN period but this one is shorter, it will last roughly from the 5-10th (5 days), then we look to be even warmer then what we just experienced.  I do think we have a cold snap in Feb sometime, we always do, but a short one like we have now and maybe we get lucky again.   Something like we saw in 2012...we had a 5 day period of BN, got a light snow event, it was nice.  We have as much a chanced at a 2014/2015 Feb as we did at getting 8-10" yesterday...I really am going to use yesterdays bust any chance I get :-)

[FallsLake]

Hay pack, it's going to be interesting to see how warm we actually average over this warm period. Just looking at the 6z GFS temps it looks like there will be a tendency for CADs (though week) to affect us. Saw this a few years back while we were going through a two week warm spell. Models keep showing high warmth in the LR just to get tempered as we got close(we actually ended up not too much over normal). Not saying we'll get anything wintery, just not day after day of 60s.

[NCSNOW]

I'd kill for + pna on roids to lock in last week of January through Feb. Just about gurantee another hit or 2 of frozen. 

Sounds like basically we have to punt the next 10 days after we break from this airmass mid week. So tracking wise LR it's back to watching the trends day 10-15 on models and seeing if we can see some signals then try and get those inside 10 days. 15 days out is Jan 23ish. I would caution we where looking 15 days out on Dec 26, so atleast we have that going for us.

[Cold Rain]

We will likely be above average, but I have seen a whole lot of scary model progs this year showing a big SER and sustained torching, only to be muted in reality.  A three week period of 60s and 70s, day after day, seems highly suspect to me, and I wouldn't forecast it, not even on Pack's computer! 

[BIG FROSTY]

From- Joe D'Aleo

 

As JB has noted, a January thaw follows this weeks coast to coast cold, but it can still be interesting with ridge pumped high pressure now more anchored north. The atmosphere will realign late this month and next making it even more so.

[NCSNOW]

This has been an impressive stretch. Below freezing for atleast 4 days possibly 5 before it breaks, with a big fat winter storm to kick it off. 

[Jon]

2 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

Hay pack, it's going to be interesting to see how warm we actually average over this warm period. Just looking at the 6z GFS temps it looks like there will be a tendency for CADs (though week) to affect us. Saw this a few years back while we were going through a two week warm spell. Models keep showing high warmth in the LR just to get tempered as we got close(we actually ended up not too much over normal). Not saying we'll get anything wintery, just not day after day of 60s.

 

2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

We will likely be above average, but I have seen a whole lot of scary model progs this year showing a big SER and sustained torching, only to be muted in reality.  A three week period of 60s and 70s, day after day, seems highly suspect to me, and I wouldn't forecast it, not even on Pack's computer! 

We'll still get blips of 0c of 850's swigning through on the backside of any cutters that form, also a good CAD signal Day 7 on the Euro (Would mean 40's for highs)....NC is much different that then SE as a whole though, so areas likely south of us will have sustained warmth given pattern...but for OBY I don't buy the GEFS image above...GEFS tends to have to play catch up Days 10-15. Euro ENS through Day 10 after 1/14 period is mid-50's. I'll be watching the Euro EPS for 10-day temps and forget the rest...

[jburns]

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi  12h12 hours ago

When someone says, "not possible to make a forecast yet" should speak for themselves. Its arrogant to think someone cant do what you cant

 

Of course, it isn't the least bit arrogant to believe you are the only one who can.

[MichaelJ]

Every torch that has been progged so far has ended up modifying or changing so far and I see no reason to think differently now going forward. I do agree with Jon that March will be AN though

[packbacker]

I just posted a 3 week period that just ended that was +6 to +8F and if that's considered muted I am with you guys.  I think we will have 7-10 days of highs in the 60's from Jan 10-24th. After that we will see.  

[cbmclean]

13 minutes ago, packbacker said:

I just posted a 3 week period that just ended that was +6 to +8F and if that's considered muted I am with you guys.  I think we will have 7-10 days of highs in the 60's from Jan 10-24th. After that we will see.  

To me it looks like RDU was 2 - 3 K over which is 3.6 - 5.4 F.  To be that's not a blowtorch, but then that's really just a matter of semantics.  The deep south on the other hand...

[packbacker]

11 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

To me it looks like RDU was 2 - 3 K over which is 3.6 - 5.4 F.  To be that's not a blowtorch, but then that's really just a matter of semantics.  The deep south on the other hand...

We were +5F the past two weeks so probably +6 to +7 for the period I am referring to.  Not a blowtorch by some definitions but solidly AN.  

We will blowtorch the next 2 weeks...at the least  

 

[TiltedStorm]

The fact we are getting a +PNA is the best thing we can ask for right now. Hey pack have you looked at The MJO?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[cbmclean]

2 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

To me it looks like RDU was 2 - 3 K over which is 3.6 - 5.4 F.  To be that's not a blowtorch, but then that's really just a matter of semantics.  The deep south on the other hand...

I just used wunder ground to go back and look up the number for 12/17/2016 - 1/5/2017 and the averages for temps were (Max/Mean/Min) 56/47/37.  The warmest max by far was 12/18 with 75 F which to be frank, I didn't really remember.  Interestingly, both the day before and the day after were in the high 40's for highs, so that probably fuels part of the "muted" perception.

[Touchet]

Sorry about last post, lol. There are returns to our west?  Will this cause some flurries today? 

[packbacker]

34 minutes ago, TiltedStorm said:

The fact we are getting a +PNA is the best thing we can ask for right now. Hey pack have you looked at The MJO?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Yep, looks like GFS has it headed to 2-3.  

[cbmclean]

48 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

I just used wunder ground to go back and look up the number for 12/17/2016 - 1/5/2017 and the averages for temps were (Max/Mean/Min) 56/47/37.  The warmest max by far was 12/18 with 75 F which to be frank, I didn't really remember.  Interestingly, both the day before and the day after were in the high 40's for highs, so that probably fuels part of the "muted" perception.

NCDC Averages for RDU for that period are 51.3/41.4/31.5. 

 

Overall, RDU was somewhere between +1 and +2 F for December (max temps on wunderground appear to be rounded to nearest degree, while NCDC gives temps to nearest 0.1 F).  I didn't see it myself but my wife mentioned to me that one evening Greg Fishel mentioned that the despite the widespread perception that December was much warmer than normal at RDU, it was only 1 deg F, so that sort of meshes with my data.

[pcbjr]

1 hour ago, packbacker said:

Well Pack, it won't let me quote you. Ominous sign! Phil

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 2h2 hours ago

Speaking of headaches, GFS and EURO MJO forecasts yield OPPOSITE temp patterns from their forecasts in the longer term. phase 1/2 are cold

 

2 and 3 wouldn't be great, but wouldn't be absolutely terrible, either. We'll see.

 

[cbmclean]

17 minutes ago, pcbjr said:

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 2h2 hours ago

Speaking of headaches, GFS and EURO MJO forecasts yield OPPOSITE temp patterns from their forecasts in the longer term. phase 1/2 are cold

 

2 and 3 wouldn't be great, but wouldn't be absolutely terrible, either. We'll see.

 

How important do you guys think the MJO is, compared to say the NAO or PNA?  More generally if you had to rank the major teleconnections/indices in order of importance for Winter in the SE, how would you rank them (NAO, AO, EPO, PNA, QBO, MJO etc)

[pcbjr]

20 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

How important do you guys think the MJO is, compared to say the NAO or PNA?  More generally if you had to rank the major teleconnections/indices in order of importance for Winter in the SE, how would you rank them (NAO, AO, EPO, PNA, QBO, MJO etc)

I am not going scientific on this - so don't shoot or berate me ...

All the indices are important, and typically, in my humble opinion, PNA and NAO and EPO are the more important generally for progging SE weather. But - this year, the tropics seem to be leading the charge (not smart enough on this end to go the "how, why and where" route - but that's what it seems - and it seems from watching day to day, cycle to cycle, with fluctuations in the major indices, the tropics appear to have controlled, or have at least led the way, this year, since September). That's why I was posting in October I thought we'd see an AN Nov, and AN Dec, a N Jan with one big cold shot in Jan (is this one it (?) - if so, I was wrong since I said it would happen after the 15th and likened it to 1983 or 1985), with a very cool to cold wet 15 days in Feb starting around the 5th or so (we'll have to see), with summer coming in March. So far, I'm still thinking that's the way we end up - all from my very, admittedly non-university analysis. I defer to Jon and Pack and CR and Grit and SuperJames and the others for the science. I just put out there what years of independent study and a lifetime suggests to me and wait to be told I'm wrong

Phil

[cbmclean]

8 minutes ago, pcbjr said:

I am not going scientific on this - so don't shoot or berate me ...

All the indices are important, and typically, in my humble opinion, PNA and NAO and EPO are the more important generally for progging SE weather. But - this year, the tropics seem to be leading the charge (not smart enough on this end to go the "how, why and where" route - but that's what it seems - and it seems from watching day to day, cycle to cycle, with fluctuations in the major indices, the tropics appear to have controlled, or have at least led the way, this year, since September). That's why I was posting in October I thought we'd see an AN Nov, and AN Dec, a N Jan with one big cold shot in Jan (is this one it (?) - if so, I was wrong since I said it would happen after the 15th and likened it to 1983 or 1985), with a very cool to cold wet 15 days in Feb starting around the 5th or so (we'll have to see), with summer coming in March. So far, I'm still thinking that's the way we end up - all from my very, admittedly non-university analysis. I defer to Jon and Pack and CR and Grit and SuperJames and the others for the science. I just put out there what years of independent study and a lifetime suggests to me and wait to be told I'm wrong

Phil

When you say "the tropics" do you mean the "La Nina-like" signature?

[pcbjr]

Just now, cbmclean said:

When you say "the tropics" do you mean the phantom "La Nina-like" signature?

Among others but it was not a primary for me in later September - I started with what the US area 'Cane season was like, looked at related analogues ('64 and '85 being my starting points this year), factored in MJO as it evolved(s) and went/go from there with the other indices; that was for this year- next fall I'll reevaluate anew based on a clean slate of data - 'Cane season really weighed heavily on my "unscientific" analysis back in Sept and it has continued to do so this year, thus far. I'm a big believer in what happened before given what is now is a good place to start from for doing a crystal ball

[packbacker]

I hope this is wrong...if the trop PV heads over to AK/Siberia into the last week of Jan it will take a long time to get out of that pattern.   EPS was wrong about the 10" yesterday so it's probably wrong about this.  Would be fun though....#winterover?