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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017


buckeyefan1

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18 hours ago, tarheelwx said:

00z GFS has an interesting look for next weekend in the CAD regions - 1040 hp over SE Canada with some moisture moving through.  Doesn't look great, but the players seem to be there.  TW

18z gfs is looking a bit ominous.  Ducks on the pond for next weekend. Wow that's a big and strong HP  

TW

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Let's see if we can get in one of these weekly winter weather repeat patterns for a few weeks. Seen it in times past. Next weekend could throw a suprise right after a very brief thaw mid to late week. Pattern is progressive and one big plus we have is lot of HP'S moving in and out of the ne. Think we have a chance to time one or two more opportunities. 

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Yes, we're going to warm after mid week but this winter has featured a pattern which hasn't locked in and I expect this to continue. BIG high pressure over the NE US keeps showing up next weekend on guidance. While I'm not expecting much in the way of winter weather, it just shows that even in a crappy pattern, cold weather can happen and even the outside chance of winter precip. 

 I DO think we'll have several more periods this winter of winter weather for the SE.  There are some signs in the long term guidance of a MUCH better pattern by late month.

BTW, it's only Jan 7th....long, long way to go. 

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3 hours ago, pcbjr said:

Pack,

You are a whole lot smarter than I am. So please take this with a grain of salt. Just looking at everything I can get my eyes on, it seems that around Feb 3rd give or take (obviously that far away), there should (might???) be a change that we'd like. For a while but not long duration.

I personally feel Feb will be a BN for month for the east but will have a lot of work to do based on the day 10+ guidance, several weak Nina +QBO analogs back this.  The trop PV looks to consolidate right over the pole with a lobe over AK.  The EPS is worse it actually starts sending PV over to Siberia.  Let's hope it's as wrong about that as it was about the snow today.  

So far in Jan we are torching, but the next few days can erase a lot of that.   But, days 3-10+ looks to really torch, though doesn't mean we can't have a slightly BN day or two in there.  So point is Jan is most likely going to finish AN making it 8 months of AN for NC and I assume the SE as a whole.  Got to break eventually. 

IMG_3909.PNG

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55 minutes ago, packbacker said:

I personally feel Feb will be a BN for month for the east but will have a lot of work to do based on the day 10+ guidance, several weak Nina +QBO analogs back this.  The trop PV looks to consolidate right over the pole with a lobe over AK.  The EPS is worse it actually starts sending PV over to Siberia.  Let's hope it's as wrong about that as it was about the snow today.  

So far in Jan we are torching, but the next few days can erase a lot of that.   But, days 3-10+ looks to really torch, though doesn't mean we can't have a slightly BN day or two in there.  So point is Jan is most likely going to finish AN making it 8 months of AN for NC and I assume the SE as a whole.  Got to break eventually. 

 

I've been learning a lot while lurking while you guys chased this storm.  So what is the story with how the PV affects winter in the southeast?  Apparently a strong PV is bad if you like cold here?

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If any of you get a chance and you have snow on the ground, go outside and get away from street lights and house lights, if you can, and just take in one of nature's rare and most beautiful moments in this part of the world.    It's such an awesome experience to be able to stand outside on a cold winter's night and watch the snow sparkle under the light of the nearly full moon.  The night is unusually bright as the snow reflects the fullness of the moon's light.  And the only sound you hear is the distinctive crunch as you step quietly through the snow.  It's a unique and unforgettable beauty that is rarely afforded in our part of the world and one to be treasured for sure.  Enjoy it before it's gone.

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10 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

I've been learning a lot while lurking while you guys chased this storm.  So what is the story with how the PV affects winter in the southeast?  Apparently a strong PV is bad if you like cold here?

This site  is good, several good articles that explain a lot. 

http://climate.ncsu.edu/climate/patterns/NAO.html

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12 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

I've been learning a lot while lurking while you guys chased this storm.  So what is the story with how the PV affects winter in the southeast?  Apparently a strong PV is bad if you like cold here?

Strong PV basically means cold air is trapped up in the arctic

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30 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said:

Ugly is the picture!!! Wow!  But it want last forever!! Should be more fun and games after the January thaw...........

Trying to look on the bright side, the Sierra Nevada mountains will get nearly 100 additional inches of snow (during the next 10 days). The high snowfall amounts also are being seen across the entire Rockies. Looks like their water worries will be over come spring.

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