BIG FROSTY Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 1 hour ago, franklin NCwx said: Only about 3 years. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 GEFS has another potential day 11-12 and even with a trough in the west we lots of HP to our north in the 11-15 with cold source so would think ice potential is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Todays indices: AO - Looks to go a little positive in the short term then solidly negative in the LR NAO - Looks to go solidly positive in the mid range and then fall to negative or neutral in the LR PNA - Looks to stay negative in short and medium term and then maybe go neutral in the LR So LR may have neutral PNA/NAO and a negative AO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 I didn't see any sustained torching on the LR guidance. I'll take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Could see something around Jan 15. Several ensemble members showing another southern system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 We could see the PNA go positive in the LR. NAO still looks to go strongly positive before dropping to neutral. And the really good news is the AO is still forecast to go strongly negative. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 minute ago, FallsLake said: We could see the PNA go positive in the LR. NAO still looks to go strongly positive before dropping to neutral. And the really good news is the AO is still forecast to go strongly negative. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml Did you see the weeklies? They looked pretty good. The ao is diving off the cliff. The pna looks meh and the nao is the evil step child. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Just now, Met1985 said: Did you see the weeklies? They looked pretty good. The ao is diving off the cliff. The pna looks meh and the nao is the evil step child. Yep (great news), we're all putting all our eggs in one basket with this current storm; but we need to keep looking afterwards as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, FallsLake said: Yep (great news), we're all putting all our eggs in one basket with this current storm; but we need to keep looking afterwards as well. Shoot this storm is extra if you ask me. I thought we would have to wait until at least the middle to the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 4 hours ago, Met1985 said: Shoot this storm is extra if you ask me. I thought we would have to wait until at least the middle to the end of the month. Hope this storm works for folks; believe we'll be seeing a pattern relaxation until late January at the earliest, perhaps early Feb, after this passes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 8 minutes ago, pcbjr said: Hope this storm works for folks; believe we'll be seeing a pattern relaxation until late January at the earliest, perhaps early Feb, after this passes. Oh yeah we will see a relaxation. The euro weeklies looked the best they have for us in 2 years in my opinion starting the end of January into February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Just now, Met1985 said: Oh yeah we will see a relaxation. The euro weeklies looked the best they have for us in 2 years in my opinion starting the end of January into February. Been posting since October - that's the time frame (though don't rule out a 2 day blast surprise in a couple of weeks) - it's all tropics this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Just now, pcbjr said: Been posting since October - that's the time frame (though don't rule out a 2 day blast surprise in a couple of weeks) - it's all tropics this year. Yep I like the idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 41 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Yep I like the idea. Me too - but that's not why I say it - just looks like a good line-up going forward, all things considered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 hour ago, pcbjr said: Me too - but that's not why I say it - just looks like a good line-up going forward, all things considered. Yeah I agree. Even with a relaxation I'm not worried. Just part of the process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Next!.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 3 hours ago, Met1985 said: Oh yeah we will see a relaxation. The euro weeklies looked the best they have for us in 2 years in my opinion starting the end of January into February. Does it really qualify as a "relaxation" if the cold spell is like three days long? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 22 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Does it really qualify as a "relaxation" if the cold spell is like three days long? Yeah your right. Hopefully just a better all around pattern change. The cold spell actually looks like about a week long but nothing to get excited about unless you are sick and tired of the crap we keep going through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Euro Weeklies going warm January Weeks 3 and 4..... Are they right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 2 hours ago, nchighcountrywx said: Euro Weeklies going warm January Weeks 3 and 4..... Are they right? Sounds like they flipped from earlier in the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 So a little weather weenie stuff for the potential storm; we've discusses that warm ground temps can be overcome and not to worry too much about them. But I still like the idea of ground temps being cooler when potential snow falls. So today it is forecasted to get into the 60s (for at least the RDU area). (but)Tonight temps are forecasted to get down to near freezing (front passes). This should really help lower ground temps, especially if we can get some clear skies tonight; which would allow for possible lower ground surface temps. So tonight could be important for the upcoming event. Again I know this is weenie stuff... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 3 hours ago, nchighcountrywx said: Euro Weeklies going warm January Weeks 3 and 4..... Are they right? They come out on Monday and Thursday, right? I though Monday's run came in good for the last week of Jan into Feb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 30 minutes ago, FallsLake said: So a little weather weenie stuff for the potential storm; we've discusses that warm ground temps can be overcome and not to worry too much about them. But I still like the idea of ground temps being cooler when potential snow falls. So today it is forecasted to get into the 60s (for at least the RDU area). (but)Tonight temps are forecasted to get down to near freezing (front passes). This should really help lower ground temps, especially if we can get some clear skies tonight; which would allow for possible lower ground surface temps. So tonight could be important for the upcoming event. Again I know this is weenie stuff... Your a weenie bro! Lol the colder the ground the faster the snow will start laying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, Met1985 said: Your a weenie bro! Lol the colder the ground the faster the snow will start laying. I'm somebody who wakes up in the middle of the night to read discussions on the latest weather models. So I'm a weather weenie. Time to jump into Brick's weenie mobile? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 46 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: They come out on Monday and Thursday, right? I though Monday's run came in good for the last week of Jan into Feb? I was reading Paul's column on Accuweather early this morning that included this: "European weeklies are showing a scare during the middle to late parts of the month compared to the forecast we have shown the past couple of days. They are going all-out on warmth for weeks three and four. I am not buying the extreme. I believe that there is mild weather late six- to 10- into 11- to 15-day period period, but then fronts will move through from time to time leading to more back and forth later in January. So it may not be extremely cold in the East, but I am not buying the look overall of the European." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Looks like somebody better score this weekend, as the front end of January is toast looking at the ensembles. Ridging all over the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 25 minutes ago, nchighcountrywx said: I was reading Paul's column on Accuweather early this morning that included this: "European weeklies are showing a scare during the middle to late parts of the month compared to the forecast we have shown the past couple of days. They are going all-out on warmth for weeks three and four. I am not buying the extreme. I believe that there is mild weather late six- to 10- into 11- to 15-day period period, but then fronts will move through from time to time leading to more back and forth later in January. So it may not be extremely cold in the East, but I am not buying the look overall of the European." Gotcha. Yeah, I agree, that does look horrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 7 hours ago, Cold Rain said: Gotcha. Yeah, I agree, that does look horrible. Just for kicks, moving forward - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 32 minutes ago, pcbjr said: Just for kicks, moving forward - Yea wouldn't surprise me if we absolutely roast for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 33 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said: Yea wouldn't surprise me if we absolutely roast for a while. Would surprise me if we didn't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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