Jonathan Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 So, a quick recap 0z vs 18z: 1) We've lost the 1/5 threat totally 2) The 1/7 threat is still there, but almost a day later (let's hopefully not start pushing EVERYTHING back) 3) Entire SE is below normal from 192hr-327hr (with a quick warmup but another cold blast headed our way at hr384 4) 500mb (so far) looks much better. SE ridge takes a beating. Overall, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Florida panhandle would have highs near freezing if this were to play out. This is the kind of cold that suppresses, yikes.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 1 minute ago, Jon said: Florida panhandle would have highs near freezing if this were to play out. This is the kind of cold that suppresses, yikes. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk The slosh runneth over the tub. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 January 7, 1988. Great snowstorm that was caused by isentrophic up glide and not a big miller a , noreaster. Had a 1040 hp pressing down. So there are ways to get good snows with big artic plunges. That was a powdery snow that covered alot of SE territory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Just me, but I really struggle with this line of thinking when I see it on here. 99% of the year we don't have temperatures that are even cold enough to support wintry precipitation, so it's hard for me to see how we should be concerned about the pattern being too cold / too suppressed. Just my opinion on the matterYeah I wouldn't say it's common but it happens.. Maybe the waves are just too weak to plow into stout highs and we call that suppression...either way, it sucks. Need it just right in the SE to cash in. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Just for giggles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 6 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: January 7, 1988. Great snowstorm that was caused by isentrophic up glide and not a big miller a , noreaster. Had a 1040 hp pressing down. So there are ways to get good snows with big artic plunges. That was a powdery snow that covered alot of SE territory. Yep 16" of powder, highs in teens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 5 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: January 7, 1988. Great snowstorm that was caused by isentrophic up glide and not a big miller a , noreaster. Had a 1040 hp pressing down. So there are ways to get good snows with big artic plunges. That was a powdery snow that covered alot of SE territory. Yep, Remember it well. I would love to see it again. 16 inches of powder IMBY with temps in the upper teens to around 20 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Yep 16" of powder, highs in teens You beat me to it Mac Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 January 7, 1988. Great snowstorm that was caused by isentrophic up glide and not a big miller a , noreaster. Had a 1040 hp pressing down. So there are ways to get good snows with big artic plunges. That was a powdery snow that covered alot of SE territory.Roaring -AO, no?Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 7 minutes ago, Jon said: Yeah I wouldn't say it's common but it happens.. Maybe the waves are just too weak to plow into stout highs and we call that suppression...either way, it sucks. Need it just right in the SE to cash in. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Yeah I hear ya, I know it happens. Ideally, you have a boatload of slow moving cold air in place such that whenever a Pac wave / wave from the west runs into it, there's enough cold air left to ward off the inevitable warmth brought by the storm....but we can't realistically expect to see a big cold push into the SE with a storm right on its heels moving into the cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 5 minutes ago, Jon said: Roaring -AO, no? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk That one actually had a +AO...but a huge ridge along the W Canada coast with big cold vortex in SE Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 18z GFS Para gets cold for a few days (Jan 4-6), then sends a big cutter to Minnesota Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 4 minutes ago, griteater said: 18z GFS Para gets cold for a few days (Jan 4-6), then sends a big cutter to Minnesota The Para has a lot of tweaking that still needs to be done.... It can be used, once you find out what the biases are. Such as: cut-offs, convective feed-back, warm or cold tendencies, not to mention over-amping low or high pressure systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 00z GFS Ens looks slightly better than the 18z. Here's the best 5 day period from Jan 5-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 So the Euro has a sfc low tracking from southern AL to Wilmington, NC. Winter storm Jan 5-6 roughly for Arkansas, N MS, N and W TN, NW NC, and far north NC into VA. Western wave is kicked out a little quicker this run before the cold air has established itself farther SE. Slow rotating low over SE Canada helps to suppress the storm track so that it's not a big cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 2 hours ago, griteater said: So the Euro has a sfc low tracking from southern AL to Wilmington, NC. Winter storm Jan 5-6 roughly for Arkansas, N MS, N and W TN, NW NC, and far north NC into VA. Western wave is kicked out a little quicker this run before the cold air has established itself farther SE. Slow rotating low over SE Canada helps to suppress the storm track so that it's not a big cutter. Yep. EURO basically an I-40 special this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RiftMania Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 6 hours ago, Cary_Snow95 said: Just for giggles Hello all, long time lurker and now new to the board. Interesting things come our way soon I feel. Good luck to all in the coming few weeks and beyond. Btw, I would take my 5 to 6 inches as depicted by that map and run... :-D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nomanslandva Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 It is refreshing to see the cutter early next week actually cut to MI instead of MN And actually, as others have suspected could happen, the torch for next week has trended much cooler and the leading system on Sunday\Monday looks to have a little CAD going on. Trends for next week are much more encouraging even if there still looks to be too many cutters modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Loving the 0z Euro. Got the first wave on Jan 6 as HP is moving in and then widespread cold with another wave in the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 10 minutes ago, Wow said: Loving the 0z Euro. Got the first wave on Jan 6 as HP is moving in and then widespread cold with another wave in the SW. The 6z GFS on the other hand...yikes. Cutters galore with zero shots (not even close) at anything frozen and no sustained cold pattern period. The sanitarium should be rocking this morning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 18 minutes ago, Wow said: Loving the 0z Euro. Got the first wave on Jan 6 as HP is moving in and then widespread cold with another wave in the SW. Got its ens on board with it as well. Luckily gfs op is at odds with its ens. Haven't checked Canadian but the op is ice age cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Just now, NCSNOW said: Got its ens on board with it as well. Luckily gfs op is at odds with its ens. Haven't checked Canadian but the op is ice age cold. The EPS 0z brings back the stronger SE ridge and says goodbye to the higher heights around Greenland. Certainly NOT a step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 24 minutes ago, Wow said: Loving the 0z Euro. Got the first wave on Jan 6 as HP is moving in and then widespread cold with another wave in the SW. I agree with this. The evolution from days 7-10 is a thing of beauty if you want an opportunity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 1 minute ago, tnweathernut said: I agree with this. The evolution from days 7-10 is a thing of beauty if you want an opportunity. Yes and the euro has been pretty consistent also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Yeah the opportunity is there no doubt . not sure why everyone is so worried about what's showing in days 10-15. there appears to be a real threat next week. which when it was in the 10-15 day period a few days ago it looked like a SER would dominate . We see how that's trended Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 The EPS 0z brings back the stronger SE ridge and says goodbye to the higher heights around Greenland. Certainly NOT a step in the right direction.it's also not really a step back either. the eps suggests a reloading pattern . and if you look at the 2m temps it's below normal for the region especially the Carolinas until about day 15 . Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 2 minutes ago, bhamwx205 said: it's also not really a step back either. the eps suggests a reloading pattern . and if you look at the 2m temps it's below normal for the region especially the Carolinas until about day 15 . Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk We actually need some ridging from the south so we don't go cold and dry. We are perfect right in the middle of the battleground. Some will win and some will lose. It's like that every year. So far so good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Whatever the model is suggesting, you definitely do not want to see a trend of losing heights around Greenland. If that goes, or gets shoved too far east, you can pretty much count on a stronger SE ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 9 hours ago, griteater said: Just me, but I really struggle with this line of thinking when I see it on here. 99% of the year we don't have temperatures that are even cold enough to support wintry precipitation, so it's hard for me to see how we should be concerned about the pattern being too cold / too suppressed. Just my opinion on the matter Agree with this. And this doesn't seem like one of those years where we're really going to be legit battling suppression very much anyway. Get the cold pressing in for real and then we can start to queue up suppression watch. It's kind of like worrying about Gulf convection robbing out moisture, at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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