packbacker Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 2 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: JB tweet. possible models are right on the east coast, I expect deeper trough through midwest and more storm on coast HR 144 Models arent God Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk He's keying on first wave too. It's not bad. For us we need bigger ridge in west so it digs more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Personally, I'm not big on the first wave other than some light stuff for VA etc. D to the T speaking favorable on the main weekend threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonesing for a chase Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 18 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: If Euro verifies, it's gonna get COLD with that almost 1050mb high. If this run of the Euro is right, NC is almost completely below freezing at the 850 mb level from hour 120 until end of the run. Gotta think we would have some chances, at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 The first wave is going to get eaten into the PV flow early and keep it from much more than some light precip. The second is our big shot here. THe models are showing it in a good state as it reaches the W coast, then loses it as it doesn't know which piece of energy to amp up and so it dies out. Just going to need some time to let them figure it out. It won't even be on shore until middle of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 21 minutes ago, griteater said: I'd say there's a 99% chance that the cold isn't going to press down as much as the Euro and UKMet currently show come verification time There's a saying that if you're in TN/GA/SC you want to see models showing a storm by Key West at Day 5 if you're going to get snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 5 minutes ago, Wow said: The first wave is going to get eaten into the PV flow early and keep it from much more than some light precip. The second is our big shot here. THe models are showing it in a good state as it reaches the W coast, then loses it as it doesn't know which piece of energy to amp up and so it dies out. Just going to need some time to let them figure it out. It won't even be on shore until middle of next week. Yep, agree. The JMA looks a lot like the CMC...brings out a healthy wave and it's snow from OK to PA next weekend. We gotta shoot for the weak, suppressed wave running into cold air and just 'hope' there is enough warm advection overrunning and jet level support for rising motion to aid in the precip generation. An amped up wave and sfc low isn't going to work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: There's a saying that if you're in TN/GA/SC you want to see models showing a storm by Key West at Day 5 if you're going to get snow. I fully endorse this message Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 here's the euro at 168. You can see the s/w here but too unorganized to pop a low. Very close to a big hit, just need that s/w to consolidate its energy better on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 3 minutes ago, griteater said: Yep, agree. The JMA looks a lot like the CMC...brings out a healthy wave and it's snow from OK to PA. We gotta shoot for the weak, suppressed wave running into cold air and just 'hope' there is enough warm advection overrunning and jet level support for rising motion to aid in the precip generation. An amped up wave and sfc low isn't going to work So in other words, listen to this, folks who got too excited, the 0z GFS solution was legitimately a total fantasy. Can't happen in this pattern. Hopefully no one got worked up over that run. It would only lead to big league disappointment. It's a shame that we're in such a bad stretch of winters here that we have to actually root for a storm to not be a big one and instead hope for a weak 1-3" nuisance system. But such is life since the turn of the century. We'll take what we can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 2 minutes ago, Jonathan said: So in other words folks who got too excited, the 0z GFS solution was legitimately a total fantasy. Can't happen in this pattern. Hopefully no one got worked up over that run. It's a shame that we're in such a bad stretch of winters here that we have to actually root for a storm to not be a big one and instead hope for a weak 1-3" nuisance system. But such is life since the turn of the century. Any run that the models show is a possibility, just not likely. Yes it can happen, just a lot has to go right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 7 minutes ago, Jonathan said: So in other words, listen to this, folks who got too excited, the 0z GFS solution was legitimately a total fantasy. Can't happen in this pattern. Hopefully no one got worked up over that run. It would only lead to big league disappointment. It's a shame that we're in such a bad stretch of winters here that we have to actually root for a storm to not be a big one and instead hope for a weak 1-3" nuisance system. But such is life since the turn of the century. We'll take what we can get. For the benefit of the less knowledgeable among us, why would a stronger storm be bad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 25 minutes ago, Jonathan said: So in other words folks who got too excited, the 0z GFS solution was legitimately a total fantasy. Can't happen in this pattern. Hopefully no one got worked up over that run. It's a shame that we're in such a bad stretch of winters here that we have to actually root for a storm to not be a big one and instead hope for a weak 1-3" nuisance system. But such is life since the turn of the century. Well we can certainly get good precip from a weak wave in a long SW flow fetch...just saying a juiced up wave is going to cut. 00z GFS looked great, but I thought its amplifying and digging wave was far fetched. Just giving my thoughts here, I certainly don't have all the answers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 31 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: There's a saying that if you're in TN/GA/SC you want to see models showing a storm by Key West at Day 5 if you're going to get snow. Havana would be better given this pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 19 minutes ago, cbmclean said: For the benefit of the less knowledgeable among us, why would a stronger storm be bad? Yeah a stronger upper level wave and sfc low is much more likely to track too far north for the bulk of our forum (rain). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 15 minutes ago, cbmclean said: For the benefit of the less knowledgeable among us, why would a stronger storm be bad? A stronger storm would mean a phase with the northern stream and the southern stream. If the streams phase, the intensity cranks up and "winds" the storm northward as it treks across the CONUS. Usually when a storm "phases" the two streams, the response out ahead of the storm is ridging, which of course would track the storm to our north and give us a cool (or warm) rain. However, given the right atmospheric setup (preferably a big ridge on the west coast to allow the shortwave to dive deep into the south, and stout ridging into Greenland to keep the storm from raging to the north) a storm can phase at just the right time when the trough is negatively tiled and pull the storm from the gulf coast right up the east coast. Those are your major winter storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 I'm getting my foot, Jeremy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Those are not bad at all for the lead time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Just now, Wow said: I'm getting my foot, Jeremy. If you get it, I'm probably getting it too so I'm with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Lots of eps support for the op solution Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Gsp disco As we work through Thursday and Thursday night, the GFS and European both streak moisture and some spotty light precipitation across the region. It should be light since the Gulf of Mexico will be cut-off, but with colder temperatures some light snow could materialize. Temperatures on Thursday and Thursday night have trended colder, and we will follow that trend as well. Friday and Saturday offer greater complexity, as a chunk of Arctic air drops into the area. This effectively has resulted in a shift to the south of the primary over-running/warm air advection precipitation episode during that time frame. Considering how drastically the models are jumping around, we have opted to follow wpc and keep chance probability of precipitation in the forecast for Friday into Saturday. Although at this point we have light precipitation amounts, thermal profiles will support some light snow in a growing number of locations. As noted in previous discussions, this is currently a low confidence forecast at the end of the cycle - until the models can stabilize in with the overall pattern change. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 18z GFS more like the 0z, particularly with the piece of energy moving toward our s/w off the W coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
odell.moton Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 18z GFS more like the 0z, particularly with the piece of energy moving toward our s/w off the W coast. Good thing or bad thing Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiltedStorm Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Good thing or bad thing Sent from my iPhone using TapatalkGoodSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 18z looking sort of similar to the 0z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 I wonder if we will ever see a return to "normal" NAO conditions or if this the way things are in our warmer world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 More similar to 0z but even slower. Which allows for greater separation from the PV and the high pressure is a full 10mb stronger from 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 The Jan 6 wave just got more interesting. Snow breaking out over W NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Wow healthy initial wave at 132, snow over central/n nc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 5 minutes ago, Wow said: More similar to 0z but even slower. Which allows for greater separation from the PV and the high pressure is a full 10mb stronger from 0z. Yes, but may squash precip chances right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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