SN_Lover Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Zonal and weak is the theme of the 12z runs. Euro strung out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Just now, packbacker said: For Euro, so far through 120 the greenland block is weaker then 0z run, heights are rising in the east. Yep. EURO is about to crush our dreams. 32 deg line isn't even into NC at 126...0z it was in southern SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Until the ECMWF jumps on board, NWS and TV mets aren't going to either. Hard to go against it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Comparing the Op Euro at day 5 with the GEFS/GEPS. Looks close to the GEFS at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 At 144, it's got the s/w over NV and HP over AR... Looks like a good setup to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Yep. EURO is about to crush our dreams. 32 deg line isn't even into NC at 126...0z it was in southern SC.Vort map still looks fine with ridging and no progressive look, could take a while and be slower, allowing more cold to move in before the shortwave digs...we will seeSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Just now, Jon said: Vort map still looks fine with ridging and no progressive look, could take a while and be slower, allowing more cold to move in before the shortwave digs...we will see Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk So maybe we get a little appetizer riding up the arctic front, then potential for a more robust system once the cold air sets in? That would be preferred anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 2 minutes ago, Jonathan said: Multiple weak wave setup rather than a consolidated look, perhaps? That's the storm. That needs to hold its own as it moves into more hostile territory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Euro also gives northern nc some light snow with the initial wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 1 minute ago, Wow said: That's the storm. That needs to hold its own as it moves into more hostile territory. Gotcha. I wasn't looking at the EURO when I typed that. (I deleted the post) This is the weak little wave the GFS spit out during the same timeframe. I'm with you now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Just a nice string of HP funneling down. Really cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 28 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Wow, nice...majority of members are a hit for clt. No, I'm not getting sucker back in. No!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 That fiirst wave has a nice snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 1 minute ago, Jonathan said: Gotcha. I wasn't looking at the EURO when I typed that. (I deleted the post) This is the weak little wave the GFS spit out during the same timeframe. I'm with you now. What will really help it is if some offshore ridging builds to allow this s/w to dig SE more and give it some room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 So if we blend the CMC, Euro, GFS, and GFS ensembles; we get a perfect Miller A right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 I don't get it. This is madness. I mean yeah, it's 6-8 days away but the GFS/CMC/EURO could not POSSIBLY be any more different from each other even if you tried to draw it up that way. Insane. GFS: decent storm CMC: cutter EURO: what storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 GEFS members, along with the Op, hinted at the day 6 potential, right now VA is favored but interesting. This is just through day 6 below. Nice to see the Euro in on that potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 GFS and Euro love to play that flip flop dance with each other at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Stress levels are high, ha. Euro and UKMet look quite similar. If we relax the cold press just a tad (not far fetched at all given how models normally trend), and then bring the wave out and it is allowed to amplify just a tad, you get a nice light to moderate winter storm. We're in a good spot right now all things considered. It's never easy, but you sure as heck don't want to see a substantially weakened cold press and amplified western wave or its snow from Tulsa to Happy Valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 5 minutes ago, Jonathan said: I don't get it. This is madness. I mean yeah, it's 6-8 days away but the GFS/CMC/EURO could not POSSIBLY be any more different from each other even if you tried to draw it up that way. Insane. The GFS and Euro are strung out and don't combine the SW's. CMC kinda does, but not a physically practical way. Historically, low resolution models are not phase happy. If higher resolution models don't bite, then you have a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 8 minutes ago, Jonathan said: I don't get it. This is madness. I mean yeah, it's 6-8 days away but the GFS/CMC/EURO could not POSSIBLY be any more different from each other even if you tried to draw it up that way. Insane. GFS: decent storm CMC: cutter EURO: what storm? This is normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Good grief that's a cold air mass rolling in,looks like another PV piece trying to rotate in later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 If Euro verifies, it's gonna get COLD with that almost 1050mb high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 5 minutes ago, griteater said: Stress levels are high, ha. Euro and UKMet look quite similar. If we relax the cold press just a tad (not far fetched at all given how models normally trend), and then bring the wave out and it is allowed to amplify just a tad, you get a nice light to moderate winter storm. We're in a good spot right now all things considered. It's never easy, but you sure as heck don't want to see a substantially weakened cold press and amplified western wave or its snow from Tulsa to Happy Valley Yep...I don't want to see a wave tracking across the deep south 7 days out. Wish the para was running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Comparison of the 0z GFS to the 12z Euro valid 12z on 1/6. Notice the stronger s/w in NV and the heights over the east aren't quite as low. 0z GFS: 12z Euro: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 12Z GFS BUFKIT shows less than .1" snow for RDU friday night... barely anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Between now and the next 24-48 hrs (depending on your model of choice), we're entering the standard multi-cycle period where the storm signal weakens. Nothing to freak out over. It's quite standard and expected. Suppressed is really the only look that's good for us this far out. When we start getting snow showing up before 1:20/1:30 on the Euro, then we'll be in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said: 12Z GFS BUFKIT shows less than .1" snow for RDU friday night... barely anything. That warm ground will eat that up quickly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 2 minutes ago, packbacker said: Yep...I don't want to see a wave tracking across the deep south 7 days out. Wish the para was running. I'd say there's a 99% chance that the cold isn't going to press down as much as the Euro and UKMet currently show come verification time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 JB tweet. possible models are right on the east coast, I expect deeper trough through midwest and more storm on coast HR 144Models arent GodSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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