mackerel_sky Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 4 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: Another variable is the extremely warm antecedent temperatures. Highs in the 70s on Tuesday will warm up the soil and asphalt considerably. This will limit any accumulations. Lol! Trolls be trippin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 1 minute ago, DopplerWx said: No. It won't. We go over this every single year, soil temps can easily be overcome and have little to no effect on accums. I disagree. A warm soil can melt the first 1/2 - 1 inch of snow before it begins sticking. I've seen it before and heard many TV mets talk about it as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said: I disagree. A warm soil can melt the first 1/2 - 1 inch of snow before it begins sticking. I've seen it before and heard many TV mets talk about it as well. Last night, with the 0z run, the GFS was depicting soil temps around freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said: I disagree. A warm soil can melt the first 1/2 - 1 inch of snow before it begins sticking. I've seen it before and heard many TV mets talk about it as well. I'll sacrifice 1/2" for my 19.5" that falls after! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 4 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: Another variable is the extremely warm antecedent temperatures. Highs in the 70s on Tuesday will warm up the soil and asphalt considerably. This will limit any accumulations. Not sure, we've had highs in the 60's recently and we're still solidly at 40-42 degrees. Maybe something to worry about with a weak 1-3" event, but anything larger and rates will overwhelm any surface temperature issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southernskimmer Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 2 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: Last night, with the 0z run, the GFS was depicting soil temps around freezing Wouldn't timing also be a factor? This would be falling after sunset not at 12 noon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Just now, Jon said: Not sure, we've had highs in the 60's recently and we're still solidly at 40-42 degrees. Maybe something to worry about with a weak 1-3" event, but anything larger and rates will overwhelm any surface temperature issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 1 minute ago, Jon said: Not sure, we've had highs in the 60's recently and we're still solidly at 40-42 degrees. Maybe something to worry about with a weak 1-3" event, but anything larger and rates will overwhelm any surface temperature issues I agree with that. But I don't see this event being anything other than a weak 1-3", if that, for RDU so soil temperatures will DEFINITELY be a factor. Especially with temps possibly in the 70s and sunny a few days before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Just now, southernskimmer said: Wouldn't timing also be a factor? This would be falling after sunset not at 12 noon Sun angle is not a factor in January. Oh wait, this is the South so it's always a factor. Nevermind. Seriously though, at least it's not Feb or March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 10 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: Another variable is the extremely warm antecedent temperatures. Highs in the 70s on Tuesday will warm up the soil and asphalt considerably. This will limit any accumulations. This would be like worrying about what plays you are going to call in the Super Bowl while preparing for the Week 1 game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 1 minute ago, southernskimmer said: Wouldn't timing also be a factor? This would be falling after sunset not at 12 noon Last night, as it was modeled, the surface would be anywhere from 22-25 depending on your locale. We wouldn't have to worry about what time of day it was, thankfully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said: I agree with that. But I don't see this event being anything other than a weak 1-3", if that, for RDU so soil temperatures will DEFINITELY be a factor. Especially with temps possibly in the 70s and sunny a few days before. I think it's trending to a larger event, especially for RDU. But yeah, my opinion is soil temps no issue whatsoever. Roads always are the last to cover, but with heavy rates those can get covered in minutes. Heavy rates can cool the surface as the true soil temperature 2-5" deep into the ground would be a lot cooler than anything that warmed the surface days prior. Not worried but lets nail a storm down first lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 12z gfs def more like 0z than 6z by 105hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 12z GFS looks like the 0z, definitely more ridging and a more amplified flow setting up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Should be a good run of the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Just like seeing the HP funneling in...waves in the sw, they look a little weaker this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 12z looks like a cross between the 0z and 6z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 12z looks like a cross between the 0z and 6z runsYeah energy is completely sheared out in the west, if a low pops seems like it will be a repeat of the 6z moreso than the 0z. Doesn't look like anything will dig too far south this run....Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 12z breaks out some light snow over W NC at 138 with the first wave as it flies out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 3 minutes ago, Jon said: Yeah energy is completely sheared out in the west, if a low pops seems like it will be a repeat of the 6z moreso than the 0z. Doesn't look like anything will dig too far south this run.... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Mid levels looks really good at 153.. Don't want it too strong. But GFS will prob not get the energy wrapped in well for their surface output Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Nice HP, wave is weaker though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Don't have the vort max yet but you can see here the 2 vorts that aren't really phased together so it can't make a consolidated LP. Common error here and more likely will be phased per the 0z. 12z: 0z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 All eyes towards the UKMET now. Hopefully it remains consistent with the setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Nice run overall of GFS. Sfc low off SE coast moving in tandem with sfc high to the north - hard to complain about that. CMC doesn't have a good cold push and it's back to that snow from OK to PA solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Is it me or is this thing getting delayed by 6-12 hours every run? Yesterday we were looking at a Fri-Sat event...last night we were looking at a Sat AM event...this morning we're looking at a Sat PM event? When does it stop? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 2 minutes ago, Jonathan said: Is it me or is this thing getting delayed by 6-12 hours every run? Yesterday we were looking at a Fri-Sat event...last night we were looking at a Sat event...this morning we're looking at a Sat-Sun event? When does it stop? It don't matter when it stops, as long as you get the cold push out in front of whatever disturbance may come along! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Another variable is the extremely warm antecedent temperatures. Highs in the 70s on Tuesday will warm up the soil and asphalt considerably. This will limit any accumulations.Wrong. I can't understand why people bring this up every single year. It doesn't take much to overcome "warm" ground temps from a few days of warm weather. About 3 weeks ago we had very warm weather for several days and it snowed about half an inch one night and the roads were solid white in Boone. If the the air gets cold enough what melts at first quickly becomes a great base layer of ice that continues to cool the ground. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 1 minute ago, AirNelson39 said: Wrong. I can't understand why people bring this up every single year. It doesn't take much to overcome "warm" ground temps from a few days of warm weather. About 3 weeks ago we had very warm weather for several days and it snowed about half an inch one night and the roads were solid white in Boone. If the the air gets cold enough what melts at first quickly becomes a great base layer of ice that continues to cool the ground. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk They trollin, they hatin, they trying to be dumb and nerdy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 UKMet has a big cold push again, but it dives the sfc high into the Memphis area at 144. Wave at that time is kicking out and is just west of Salt Lake City. Hard to say where it would go from there but not an awesome look overall other than the initial good cold airmass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 12z GFS snow map: Edit: of course some of this would be ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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