packbacker Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 So much to a fast start this winter on temps. Yes, ATL to western NC got a great event but we are running AN conus wide, completely opposite of last December through 23 days. Yes, we will get 7 well BN days but after that its clear that warmth is winning still, not sure what can change that going forward. It's clear the eQBO and low solar didn't impact our temps like was originally hoped. Though, I guess you could argue we would be even warmer without the e-QBO/lsolar. Looking forward to frisbee golf after the first week of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 1 hour ago, WarmNose said: 00z CMC and GFC both on board with the big dog New Years event! Patience young grasshoppers Doesn't the euro have this as a rainer in the SE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 28 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Doesn't the euro have this as a rainer in the SE? No. It shows suppresion and arctic air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shahroz98 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 12z Euro has the NYE storm really supressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 So we finally get our cold we need and can’t buy any moisture... but once it warms up in January it’ll be system after system probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 18 minutes ago, shahroz98 said: 12z Euro has the NYE storm really supressed. Cold and suppressed with another one at day 10, but it was a pretty good run with those two systems showing more wave amplification than this week's storm. Pattern remains better than average for us though it's always tough down here to reel one in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, snowlover91 said: So we finally get our cold we need and can’t buy any moisture... but once it warms up in January it’ll be system after system probably. Suppression city. Cold and dry or warm and wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 6 minutes ago, griteater said: Cold and suppressed with another one at day 10, but it was a pretty good run with those two systems showing more wave amplification than this week's storm. Pattern remains better than average for us though it's always tough down here to reel one in This is starting to get aggravating...this should produce something for someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 20 minutes ago, lilj4425 said: Suppression city. Cold and dry or warm and wet. I'm a lurker who tries to learn by listening. It seems from what some on here say that it is the west-based -NAO that is the most important for trying to avoid the "warm-up and rain" phenomenon. Since the - NAO is basically retired now and spends it's Winters in hibernation, we get no love. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 EPS off to a good start for the new years threat. Day 5 energy dropping down, strong low over the NE that does lift out quicker this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Looks like we're about to go zonal fast not too soon after that pic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 6 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Looks like we're about to go zonal fast not too soon after that pic Definitely better then any previous runs...looks like 1" mean for that this potential back to our area with 1.5" back to eastern NC. 0z EPS showed no precip for that event, this run showed .1.-.2" it looks like. Would think SE of here its a solid ice event as it's now showing snow on the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 The day 9-10 event is definitely still there too. That looks really good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 1 minute ago, packbacker said: The day 9-10 event is definitely still there too. That looks really good. The 240 image looks even better. Of the two (Jan 1 & Jan 4), the Jan 4 system looks the best. Que the always 10 days away posters in 10, 9... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, griteater said: The 240 image looks even better. Of the two (Jan 1 & Jan 4), the Jan 4 system looks the best. Que the always 10 days away posters in 10, 9... It’s always 10 days away. I’m tired of this. I’m going to get drunk. I hate everybody. Mack and Warmnose live too close to me. Tell them to move. Christmas sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 4 minutes ago, griteater said: The 240 image looks even better. Of the two (Jan 1 & Jan 4), the Jan 4 system looks the best. Que the always 10 days away posters in 10, 9... Well the great news is after the day 10 potential the pattern collapses so we wont be able say the 10 day line after today/tomorrow. From the looks it could be awhile to get out of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 18z GFS looks excellent for Jan 1-2. Keep pushing it back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation Judah Cohen's great write up about what awaits us for the rest of the winter. In summary he says the winter is at the crossroads, we're certainly flipping to mild/warm after the first week of Jan, but it's still TBD whether the flip is permanent or transient. He also sees a possibility that this winter pulls a 13-14, where numerous weak disruptions of the PV lead to a colder pattern for the east. However, he notes that the models currently support the idea that the flip will be somewhat permanent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 RELAX and step away from the cliff... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 This is a perfect example as to why you shouldn't trust the models outside of 24 hours. It is fun to watch no doubt. However, models are terrible to be honest. Be careful not to get bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 13 minutes ago, SteveVa said: http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation Judah Cohen's great write up about what awaits us for the rest of the winter. In summary he says the winter is at the crossroads, we're certainly flipping to mild/warm after the first week of Jan, but it's still TBD whether the flip is permanent or transient. He also sees a possibility that this winter pulls a 13-14, where numerous weak disruptions of the PV lead to a colder pattern for the east. However, he notes that the models currently support the idea that the flip will be somewhat permanent. For weeks we seem to "know" the warmth is coming in mid January but 6 days before Christmas we don't know if its going to be 60 degrees or 30. Warmth is a no doubter but cold is basically a constant "who knows". That's life on a temperate climate i suppose lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 3 hours ago, packbacker said: Well the great news is after the day 10 potential the pattern collapses so we wont be able say the 10 day line after today/tomorrow. From the looks it could be awhile to get out of. Funny thing is two weeks before Christmas is was supposed to be a balmy 70 yet it barely got above freezing today. What I'm saying is I wouldn't worry about two week from now when the models are having a very hard time within 120hrs. I'm sure it's going to warm up and we'll have a thaw...we live in the South, it's expected. I'm sure most of us will "cash out" before it's all said and done, though, be it early/late Jan, Feb or March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 So we know models have folded for our 29th event at this juncture. Does anyone have snowfall means for our New Years threat? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthernUpstateSC Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 1 hour ago, WarmNose said: New Years storm looks like a lock. Lots of juice in the gulf Tell Brick to start the thread. Blue Turd is banned from thread initiation I think it was either "Lookout or WOW" who said a day or two ago if the first system was too strong it would really hurt the chances of the second system so, we wanted a weaker first system. i think the second system looked much better on the models for most of the board. Maybe that will happen and everyone can cash in their chips and get a widespread winter storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 I'm just going to hangout over here and wait on the New Years miracle storm! Don't let doo-doo blue start this one! The 18z looks great, hopefully it'll keep getting better! There will be tons of cold air around! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 CMC basically says what? For New Years, but trouble brewing after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 5 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said: CMC basically says what? For New Years, but trouble brewing after. CMC has a big storm for New Years... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 For New Years, CMC has a HP moving in tandem with a low pressure system (reasonable scenario) where as GFS has a 1060 diving due south out of the plains straight into the Gulf Of Mexico. I believe the HP was still a 1042 when it hit the gulf. LOL. Just idiotic and ZERO help as a LR model. Zero Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 14 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: CMC has a big storm for New Years... I misspoke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 The CMC shows a squashed "storm" for New Years. Nothing in most of NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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