mrdaddyman Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 26 minutes ago, msuwx said: If you have been catching any of my videos for the past couple of weeks, I’ve been hitting this period in the days following Christmas into the first week of 2018 as loaded with potential. Over the past week, I was saying 2 potential time periods....one later next week and one Jan 3-5. This was all due to pattern recognition. In my opinion, that’s exactly where we still are. It’s a pattern where many of the players necessary for a Southeast winter storm or two are on the playing field. How will it all play out? Time will tell, but don’t hang emotions on every single model run. Finally, some complaining about it being a matter of timing. It’s always a matter of timing around here! This isn’t Buffalo. Bottom line, I’m excited about the pattern and feel pretty good this will work in some way for a lot of folks over the next two weeks. But we shall see. Unless we have a raging West based -NAO which has been hard to come by in the past few winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 24 minutes ago, vwgrrc said: Without being disrespectful, I feel we people here always get too excited with 1 or 2 "good" model run, like 0z last night, and easily call a "bad" run outlying. How we know that for sure? Again, not being disrespectful. I kinda have the same problem. The last night 0z GFS and Canadian gave me (in North TX) a nice ice storm next week. But both showing nothing now You have the GFS which has gone from a cutter to suppressed 24 hours ago while no other model supports that solution. The GFS also has a problem of amping storms too much in the extended range and then “losing” them inside the 6 day range. It did this with the early December snow we saw and didn’t catch on until within 2-3 days out while the CMC and UK did the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nam0806 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 I know many are disappointed by the most recent 12z GFS run, but by experience, if you want any model showing this result in this timeframe, it's the GFS.As most have said, it's so inconsistent at this point that I haven't really been paying much attention to it lately. Could it be right? Possibly, but with its' inconsistencies, I've decided to take a look at other models until it shows consistency (or even remotely close to it). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 FWIW, 12z GFS ensemble mean is snowier than the 6z was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 1 minute ago, msuwx said: FWIW, 12z GFS ensemble mean is snowier than the 6z was. I love it when you talk dirty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, msuwx said: FWIW, 12z GFS ensemble mean is snowier than the 6z was. Thanks Matthew and keep up the good vids! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 4 minutes ago, msuwx said: FWIW, 12z GFS ensemble mean is snowier than the 6z was. Yep and VERY icy too. In fact looking through the GEFS almost every member is similar to what the CMC shows, some just have more ice or snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Classic GFS. Over amp the storm at 7-8 days, squash it to Cuba at 5-6 days then slowly bring it back day by day. GEFS is super wet compared to the op. We're in a good spot right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 40 minutes ago, snowlover91 said: You have the GFS which has gone from a cutter to suppressed 24 hours ago while no other model supports that solution. The GFS also has a problem of amping storms too much in the extended range and then “losing” them inside the 6 day range. It did this with the early December snow we saw and didn’t catch on until within 2-3 days out while the CMC and UK did the best. This. Actually the GFS didn't pull the moisture back until 24 or 36 hours before game time. It kept the moisture cutoff south of Atlanta until around the 12z on Thursday or so while the CMC stuck to its guns. Then the RGEM went in with the kill shot. I'd trust the CMC until she bucks, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 I'll say this too, I sat in a totally unrelated meeting at GDOT last week about an I-85 incident detection/toll project and they aren't happy with the current company they have a contract with that provides GDOT with weather models and prediction. The reason it was brought up is the small company I work for has a wide open procurement process with GDOT and we are going to represent the new company that will provide its weather modeling and forecasting for GDOT. The company they want to use, Meteocentre, relies heavily on weather models out of Toronto, and they were dead on with the last storm. So GDOT will be relying on the CMC/RGEM/Ukmet for their winter forecasting starting in 2018. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 1 hour ago, CADEffect said: Here you go @Orangeburgwx How the? What the hell? Wonder how the GEM figures that? Obviously a garbage run. GL low trailing frontal boundary from MI peninsula to apps through central GA. Screams WAA. Rain snow line would be at least PA or NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 10 minutes ago, FLweather said: How the? What the hell? Wonder how the GEM figures that? Obviously a garbage run. GL low trailing frontal boundary from MI peninsula to apps through central GA. Screams WAA. Rain snow line would be at least PA or NY. Because the placement of the highs. One is pushing in low level cold from the NW the second max in southern Canada just north of New York will provide the CAD from the NE. WAA comes over the top and creates IP and ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 The free maps of the EURO look better than GFS...FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Euro less robust with CAD than Friday's 12z run -- 144 hr vs 168 Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Can anyone post some pics? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 1 minute ago, beanskip said: Euro less robust with CAD than Friday's 12z run -- 144 hr vs 168 Friday. It's still a nice wedge, mind you, just not quite as strong as yesterday's depiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 At 144, EURO has the inverted surface trough over the TN Valley with weak low pressure of SC coast. Another low is coming in from the northern Rockies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Euro bombing out the Miller B at 168. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 1 minute ago, beanskip said: Euro bombing out the Miller B at 168. where? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Shortwave is digging more SW into UT,CO,NM,and TX.It's a 12/20 12z do over. Good hit incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 12 minutes ago, LithiaWx said: Because the placement of the highs. One is pushing in low level cold from the NW the second max in southern Canada just north of New York will provide the CAD from the NE. WAA comes over the top and creates IP and ZR. It's not that. One HP exiting stage right while one moving in still screams waa aloft and boundary layer. That's like saying the Piedmont of NC gets snow from a clipper when the s/w and surface low goes from ATL to Charlotte to GSO/Durham. 850s might support snow. But BL temps won't. This actually happened prior to 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Unless I'm missing something, Euro looks like big hit for NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Euro has a strong Shortwave and energy in SE Oregon/N Nevada at hour 96 which digs SE.GFS has nothing there basically. Somebody is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 7 minutes ago, beanskip said: Unless I'm missing something, Euro looks like big hit for NC Solid 2-7" (ip and zr included) across much of the state minus the far eastern portion. 7-10" into the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Euro is a significant snow for NC, ice south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 13 minutes ago, FLweather said: It's not that. One HP exiting stage right while one moving in still screams waa aloft and boundary layer. That's like saying the Piedmont of NC gets snow from a clipper when the s/w and surface low goes from ATL to Charlotte to GSO/Durham. 850s might support snow. But BL temps won't. This actually happened prior to 2010. Ehhh???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 I'm late to the party but Euro has a weak Miller A snow for Mack on Jan 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Round two coming in on day 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: I'm late to the party but Euro has a weak Miller A snow for Mack on Jan 2 Yeah the setup at 240 is lovely. Plenty of HP over the east with a stout wave rolling throught the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 GFS is Squash City, CMC moderate event, EURO Significant Snow for MBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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