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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017


buckeyefan1

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Just now, Poimen said:

A blind man could have seen this coming a mile away. Too much of a good thing with the suppressed flow. However, my guess is the GFS will show a more pronounced system for Sat-Sun. 

Yep , you can see moisture pooling in TX, a wave coming down the Rockies, 1050 high droppin in, this could be the big one!

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I don't mind the look GFS is offering. For us far east...we want to see a flatter, more suppressed wave at this time frame. It's a given it will trend more amped and more NW. 

It's gearing up for a nice one at hr 186 lol so we still have that going for us.

 

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I wouldn’t put much stock in the suppressed GFS solution for now, especially with CMC, UK and Euro coming into agreement. The GFS struggles mightily with phasing and precip, remember the early December snow that it was so suppressed with compared with the CMC and UK? I’ll go with the models with the hot hand. CMC has been more consistent while GFS has been from a super amped cutter to suppressed into nothingness. 

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Without being disrespectful, I feel we people here always get too excited with 1 or 2 "good" model run, like 0z last night, and easily call a "bad" run outlying. How we know that for sure? Again, not being disrespectful. I kinda have the same problem. The last night 0z GFS and Canadian gave me (in North TX) a nice ice storm next week. But both showing nothing now :(

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If you have been catching any of my videos for the past couple of weeks, I’ve been hitting this period in the days following Christmas into the first week of 2018 as loaded with potential. Over the past week, I was saying 2 potential time periods....one later next week and one Jan 3-5. This was all due to pattern recognition.

In my opinion, that’s exactly where we still are. It’s a pattern where many of the players necessary for a Southeast winter storm or two are on the playing field. How will it all play out? Time will tell, but don’t hang emotions on every single model run. 

Finally, some complaining about it being a matter of timing. It’s always a matter of timing around here! This isn’t Buffalo. 

Bottom line, I’m excited about the pattern and feel pretty good this will work in some way for a lot of folks over the next two weeks. But we shall see. 

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