tramadoc Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Does anyone know what RDU is running temperature wise for the month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 8 minutes ago, tramadoc said: Does anyone know what RDU is running temperature wise for the month? -0.2F...after today we will be AN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 53 minutes ago, packbacker said: A couple of days ago the PV lobe that is now being modeled in south/central Canada wasn't there but the blocking down into Greenland has forced that. Why we see that big low up in OH now. Hopefully the OP Euro is correct. It then swings through by day 10 setting up another ideal location in SE Canada. It's transient though, just swings through, but sets the stage for the potential day 10 coastal. So many variables, i just hope to see a sleet pellet or two over the next 10 days! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 I'm glade nobody will be able to throw out worries like warm ground temps, cold chasing precip, and sun angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: So many variables, i just hope to see a sleet pellet or two over the next 10 days! Need more than that man. This is one of those big chances we really need to reel in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CADEffect Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Just now, FallsLake said: Need more than that man. This is one of those big chances we really need to reel in. Falls curious to know, did the gfs have a weaker hybrid miller b storm on the 06z run. The precip was suppressed. almost to a wave like the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 I know one thing is for sure, SE NC is going to get rain lol. Models look warmer overnight and this morning. I guess it all comes down to how amped this system is. A middle ground between amped and weak would be perfect for many people. Why is the warm nose such a problem this time, as usual? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Just now, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: I know one thing is for sure, SE NC is going to get rain lol. Models look warmer overnight and this morning. I guess it all comes down to how amped this system is. A middle ground between amped and weak would be perfect for many people. Why is the warm nose such a problem this time, as usual? Euro says not so fast to the rain idea. The GFS is way too warm and handles CAD poorly. The Euro and cmc are usually better with it but even they struggle. The NAM will be model of choice as we get in range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Just now, CADEffect said: Falls curious to know, did the gfs have a weaker hybrid miller b storm on the 06z run. The precip was suppressed. almost to a wave like the euro Yeah, it was very euro like. Still a CAD signature but definitely not a classic CAD Miller B low transferring to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 8 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: So many variables, i just hope to see a sleet pellet or two over the next 10 days! The next 10 days could be great or really bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 I wonder why the EURO was so garbage this past run (for my area anyway) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CADEffect Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 1 minute ago, Orangeburgwx said: I wonder why the EURO was so garbage this past run (for my area anyway) Orangeburg I would watch temp trends after Christmas to get a better idea where that transition line will be. NAM will help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, CADEffect said: Orangeburg I would watch temp trends after Christmas to get a better idea where that transition line will be. NAM will help. 3km, 12km, or 32km? (I use Tropical Tidbits) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 2 hours ago, SimeonNC said: I'm guessing the GEFS is nothing special since nobody is posting it. 6z GEFS was massive with the Jan 3-5th event. 1 hour ago, packbacker said: Little warmer then 0z but generally the same. It definitely had a big signal for the day 9-11 threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 24 minutes ago, FallsLake said: I'm glade nobody will be able to throw out worries like warm ground temps, cold chasing precip, and sun angle. Warm nose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, lilj4425 said: Warm nose. Lol..true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 1 hour ago, packbacker said: A couple of days ago the PV lobe that is now being modeled in south/central Canada wasn't there but the blocking down into Greenland has forced that. Why we see that big low up in OH now. Hopefully the OP Euro is correct. It then swings through by day 10 setting up another ideal location in SE Canada. It's transient though, just swings through, but sets the stage for the potential day 10 coastal. Well if we have to rely on timing for it then we are screwed. We know how transient usually works out for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 If the storm is still showing after the 12z runs, we need to create a thread. All the talk/focus is currently on next week but it's looking like we have a legitimate threat at day 9. It'll start getting real confusing from this point onward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 15 minutes ago, lilj4425 said: Warm nose. How can I help you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 6 minutes ago, FallsLake said: If the storm is still showing after the 12z runs, we need to create a thread. All the talk/focus is currently on next week but it's looking like we have a legitimate threat at day 9. It'll start getting real confusing from this point onward. I just worry bc this storm end of next week was the legitimate threat at 9 days a couple days ago, with good ensemble support. Most def not off the table. I’m pretty sure you’ve had some decent luck in the past, although LilJ is 1/1 this year lol. Screw it let’s do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CADEffect Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 11 minutes ago, FallsLake said: If the storm is still showing after the 12z runs, we need to create a thread. All the talk/focus is currently on next week but it's looking like we have a legitimate threat at day 9. It'll start getting real confusing from this point onward. Its already getting confusing on the snow maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 I hope I don’t get dry slotted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broken024 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 All I know is my weather channel app forecast for next week is money. Has some snow/ice on 7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 No more weather channel forecast talk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 13 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: I just worry bc this storm end of next week was the legitimate threat at 9 days a couple days ago, with good ensemble support. Most def not off the table. I’m pretty sure you’ve had some decent luck in the past, although LilJ is 1/1 this year lol. Screw it let’s do it. Done: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50658-the-snow-sleet-and-freezing-rain-oh-my-dec-27-29-thread/ Hope I got the dates right. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Some of you youngsters keep saying a multi day event is not likely but I will tell you that we had a few of these in the late 70’s and early 80’s. In Jan 82 we had the Air Florida storm. Started on Tuesday afternoon and ended on Thursday afternoon. We got 8” in upstate. There was also one in February of 80. BTW Feb 1980 is still coldest avg temp Feb on record at GSP culminating in March 1 blockbuster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 B rad throwing up 10% chance already into the upstate -CLT, bold for him at this lead time!! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 The high seems to be getting weaker on latest runs! Only a 1040 dropping into the plains on the 12z, hopefully, it won't matter much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 46 minutes ago, FallsLake said: If the storm is still showing after the 12z runs, we need to create a thread. All the talk/focus is currently on next week but it's looking like we have a legitimate threat at day 9. It'll start getting real confusing from this point onward. Chaos...I love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Man H5 already looks way different out west at 84. This is crazy to have a different op outlook every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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