griteater Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Just now, Queencitywx said: Canadian is a nightmare scenario. It’s probably, like always, going to nail surface temps with the CAD and has us, at maximum, mid 20s during the heart of it. I like wintry nightmares Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 6 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: Canadian is a nightmare scenario. It’s probably, like always, going to nail surface temps with the CAD and has us, at maximum, mid 20s during the heart of it. 00z Canadian ensemble mean is a slider with moderate precip and solid to strong CAD on Dec 28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 4 minutes ago, griteater said: I like wintry nightmares Thought you like torches. Speak of Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 6z GFS is very euro like. A weaker more southern solution which actually give NC a better hit. Colder with snow to ice range right around RDU for a good portion of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 As the storm progresses, the cold continues to press south putting central and northern SC into NE Ga into ice. Can't post pic, I'm on a very bad computer right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Weaker system so lighter snow totals. Winners would be the Triad to Triangle to NE NC SE Virginia. 4-5" with a bulls eye in NE NC of over 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Out to the day 8-9 range and there would be a deep southern slider that would give the Gulf coast a significant ice event. I guess you could say a palm tree snapping event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Then it turns into a great SE snow and ice event going to day 11. Many on the board would love this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Can see why the EPS was so bad...hopefully that low up in Michigan isn't that strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 The ukie as usual is pretty consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Good grief. WU upped my forecast for the 29/30 to 7"!! Here we go again. Glad to see the ZR issues reduced for many. Nobody wants that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thor Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Weaker system so lighter snow totals. Winners would be the Triad to Triangle to NE NC SE Virginia. 4-5" with a bulls eye in NE NC of over 6".I'm in NE NC and I'll take that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 I'm going to go ahead and put a little more stock into the CMC and GFS 0Z runs than most people. My reason being, the CMC was one of the ones who led the way on the last storm showing a more amped solution, even though the Euro was stubborn with a weaker storm. I don't think we would quite see the doomsday storm the 0z runs showed, but I wouldn't be surprised if it ended up closer to that scenario than a weak slider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 On the 6z GFS, the precip starts in the Carolinas on the 28th, light of course, but looks like another batch kind of blossoms over the Carolinas into the 30th, if you loop it!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 So is it time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, lilj4425 said: So is it time? NOOOOO lol. Do not jinx it yet. Edit: Do you have any kind of solid verification scores if starting it? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 32 minutes ago, SimeonNC said: I'm guessing the GEFS is nothing special since nobody is posting it. Little warmer then 0z but generally the same. It definitely had a big signal for the day 9-11 threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 5 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: NOOOOO lol. Do not jinx it yet. Edit: Do you have any kind of solid verification scores if starting it? LOL He's 1 for 1 this season. 100% verification score Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 1 minute ago, WarmNose said: He's 1 for 1 this season. 100% verification score We should get a tally of everyone to see who the right person for the job is going to be. These things are big deals as to who starts ‘em. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 I'm voting for the Blue Turd when the time is right. No jinxing that % verification score. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 GEFS still has over half of the members with snow in ATL. However, only about 1/4 of the EPS members do, and they are all a trace-1'' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Each of the big 3 ensemble means have a Miller B wintry mix that runs thru us on Dec 28-29 and a Miller A gulf to southeast coastal storm on Jan 2-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Just now, griteater said: Each of the big 3 ensemble means have a Miller B wintry mix that runs thru us on Dec 28-29 and a Miller A gulf to southeast coastal storm on Jan 2-4 Just looking at the EPS members...now I see why the mean was down. Looks like there was a bunch of members that whiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Interesting that the Euro OP is a weaker southern slider and the EPS is way amped. Take the middle road I guess? That would be good for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 The UK looked really good if you want ice... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 WPC Discussion says they prefer "a bit more suppression to the precipitation axis and amount than the 18z and 00z GEFS runs that seem marginally less likely considering the extent of the high pressure dome." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 A couple of days ago the PV lobe that is now being modeled in south/central Canada wasn't there but the blocking down into Greenland has forced that. Why we see that big low up in OH now. Hopefully the OP Euro is correct. It then swings through by day 10 setting up another ideal location in SE Canada. It's transient though, just swings through, but sets the stage for the potential day 10 coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shahroz98 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 3 hours ago, FallsLake said: Out to the day 8-9 range and there would be a deep southern slider that would give the Gulf coast a significant ice event. I guess you could say a palm tree snapping event. Which model ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 4 minutes ago, shahroz98 said: Which model ? The GFS. This outcome would be bad for those folks not use to freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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