NCSNOW Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 I may not be able to get online and chase the last 2 legs of the Triple crown (no power) lol, for now. I haven't seen surface cold, 2m this cold for a winter storm here since 12/2002. Its plain as day with the strength, location and origin of these forecasted big blocking HPs that the models are to warm this far out. Their biases as well as just looking at the dps make it obvious to anyone whos been around this hobby long enough know that come kickoff time you can shave a minimum of 3 -5 degrees off what they are forecasting. Hopefully snow and ip can save the day mby. But it's fixing to go from red flag to little concerning for some folks somewhere on this board if the qpf doesn't come down a bit. When you get miller Bs theirs gonna be ice somwhere. 99 times out of 100 the transition line is way wider than a Miller A and even just plain ole over runing events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 4 minutes ago, griteater said: New GFS Ens mean is a tick warmer than 18z, but has a Miller B with ice down thru the upstate how far south is the snowfall range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: I may not be able to get online and chase the last 2 legs of the Triple crown (no power) lol, for now. I haven't seen surface cold, 2m this cold for a winter storm here since 12/2002. Its plain as day with the strength, location and origin of these forecasted big blocking HPs that the models are to warm this far out. Their biases as well as just looking at the dps make it obvious to anyone whos been around this hobby long enough know that come kickoff time you can shave a minimum of 3 -5 degrees off what they are forecasting. Hopefully snow and ip can save the day mby. But it's fixing to go from red flag to little concerning for some folks somewhere on this board if the qpf doesn't come down a bit. When you get miller Bs theirs gonna be ice somwhere. 99 times out of 100 the transition line is way wider than a Miller A and even just plain ole over runing events. This brother. IP saved me once a few years back as points just a few miles southeast of my position had heavy zr. Maybe even CR's locale Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 5 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: I may not be able to get online and chase the last 2 legs of the Triple crown (no power) lol, for now. I haven't seen surface cold, 2m this cold for a winter storm here since 12/2002. Its plain as day with the strength, location and origin of these forecasted big blocking HPs that the models are to warm this far out. Their biases as well as just looking at the dps make it obvious to anyone whos been around this hobby long enough know that come kickoff time you can shave a minimum of 3 -5 degrees off what they are forecasting. Hopefully snow and ip can save the day mby. But it's fixing to go from red flag to little concerning for some folks somewhere on this board if the qpf doesn't come down a bit. When you get miller Bs theirs gonna be ice somwhere. 99 times out of 100 the transition line is way wider than a Miller A and even just plain ole over runing events. You right about that. From Charlotte to RDU to Fayetteville look like ground zero for a bad icestorm. Just looking at the overall pattern looks similar to Jan of 2010. More of a a/b hybrid with some overrunning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Just now, CaryWx said: This brother. IP saved me once a few years back as points just a few miles southeast of my position had heavy zr. Maybe even CR's locale Yea I don't think most of us mine .25 freezing rain or less. But once you start aproaching .5, trouble begins to brew and by.75 it grows exponentially. I've first hand expierenced those insane freezing rain maps. Over a inch of freezing rain with surface temp hovering at 22 degrees. It will alter your lifestyle for a while no doubt, over a week with no power and then the cleanup from timber damage the following weekends. Hopefully we can wiggle out of that dilemma and get the better goods snow or sleet. By the way if over 3 inches qpf fail on the gfs as sleet,that would be like 9+ inches. Can you imagine that. Wonder what the all time record max for sleet is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Yea. Both 0z GFS and Canadian give some good stuff. But the timing and magnitude seems very different between those two. For where I am (Dallas, TX), Canadian shows a crippling ice storm that is way earlier and more significant than GFS. Not sure how "good" this run is considering they are also very different from previous ones... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broken024 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Anyone have the gefs panel snow totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 zr accrual at .25 starts the power/limb issues. Agree though if we can remain at .25 or less and the rest come down as IP and some snow mixed things would sound in my area I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 49 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: Wheres the ZR accum maps folks? This is scary. Really need for this to be snow or sleet instead. CMC Freezing Rain: CMC Sleet: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 3 minutes ago, broken024 said: Anyone have the gefs panel snow totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 11 minutes ago, mrdaddyman said: e15 gives me 12”... combine that with .25” ZR from the CMC and I am going to be in the dark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broken024 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 If I were to bet I'd bet on e12 or 10 for actual snow (will likely see if/fr south) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Who's waiting for the EURO? And while we're on the subject, how did it get the nickname Dr No on here? Just interested in the origins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 1 minute ago, Jonathan said: Who's waiting for the EURO? And while we're on the subject, how did it get the nickname Dr No on here? Just interested in the origins. Heck yeah I’m waiting for the EURO, as for the Dr. No origin... I am curious myself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Just now, Orangeburgwx said: Heck yeah I’m waiting for the EURO, as for the Dr. No origin... I am curious myself I would assume it would be something like the GFS spitting out a crazy solution (like tonight's 0z) then the EURO coming in and basically showing "Um, no. That's not going to happen." lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Weather Channel done upped their ante, I’ll take that 2-4” lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 1 minute ago, Jonathan said: I would assume it would be something like the GFS spitting out a crazy solution (like tonight's 0z) then the EURO coming in and basically showing "Um, no. That's not going to happen." lol That would be correct. Back in the day you would see the GFS show a favorable winter weather solution then Euro comes in and says nope not happening. It doesn’t seem to be the case now as the GFS is more on par with the Euro now and the Euro isn’t what it used to be since the “upgrade.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Alchemist Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 I would assume it would be something like the GFS spitting out a crazy solution (like tonight's 0z) then the EURO coming in and basically showing "Um, no. That's not going to happen." lolI think that was around the time if the GFS had snow in the 5-7 day range everyone just pointed and laughed, but if the Euro showed that same thing everyone on the boards ran out to buy a snow shovel....Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Well if the doc shows a GFS solution, I'm ordering a generator... (I don't think it will, though.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 ahh remember last years jan let down, the old gfs op would show one scenario and the new "parallel" would show the complete opposite... seemed like we had model runs coming at us from all directions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, Jonathan said: Well if the doc shows a GFS solution, I'm ordering a generator... (I don't think it will, though.) You can count me in for staying up as well. Seeing how this is gonna play out for our area man. Peeps that reported on the Dr No are right too. I was on the original Eastern US Weather board before we became American Wx, so I know Mappy and a lot of the OG’s from there that are prevalant on the Mid Atlantic forum. Anyhow, I do believe Euro will be better than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldman75 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Yeah, weather channel has Myrtle beach area getting 1-3 inches as well on 1/2. Not buying in yet though but at least it’s something fun to track. Been a few years since we’ve even had a fantasy storm to track 10 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 16 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: e15 gives me 12”... combine that with .25” ZR from the CMC and I am going to be in the dark I hate doing it. Really do. I'm the Grinch before Christmas. But given the setup.... Not as a new episode of what the models show. But given the setup. Hope you don't have your hopes up too high. Climo is against you and just about every model run possible depicting this setup. I truly hope I'm wrong hope you see token flakes. But I give you about 10% chance of seeing the first glaze or flake. Sorry. Even though we are being shown a suppressed pattern. We are not dealing with a very potent shortwave that caused Feb 08?? I think it was 08. Supper suppressed pattern and strong sw diving through south AL GA SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Alchemist Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 On another note... a few years back I read a topic that burger put together about model run times, what to look for on the panels, etc. I looked and couldn’t find it. ( though I might have been searching incorrectly ) If a mod could pin it as I can see site traffic jumping if the trends keep showing up and word of this potential ice/snow event hits the general populace... Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said: You can count me in for staying up as well. Seeing how this is gonna play out for our area man. Peeps that reported on the Dr No are right too. I was on the original Eastern US Weather board before we became American Wx, so I know Mappy and a lot of the OG’s from there that are prevalant on the Mid Atlantic forum. Anyhow, I do believe Euro will be better than 12z. Yep I was on EUSWX and even WWBB (Wright-Weather BB) before that. The "king" has been pretty inconsistent since that big 12z 12/20 run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 1 minute ago, FLweather said: I hate doing it. Really do. I'm the Grinch before Christmas. But given the setup.... Not as a new episode of what the models show. But given the setup. Hope you don't have your hopes up too high. Climo is against you and just about every model run possible depicting this setup. I truly hope I'm wrong hope you see token flakes. But I give you about 10% chance of seeing the first glaze or flake. Sorry. Even though we are being shown a suppressed pattern. We are not dealing with a very potent shortwave that caused Feb 08?? I think it was 08. Supper suppressed pattern and strong sw diving through south AL GA SC. The coastal plain of South Carolina sees accumulating snow about once every decade. February 2010 and 1973 are basically what gives places like Orangeburg a minor snowfall "average". I'm sure the median is 0" annually. Crazy things can happen, about once every 20 to 30 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 EURO is colder, further south and maybe a tick slower through 102. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Not much to report on Euro yet except that the location and track of how the waves enter the west coast is quite different among the models. Lot to sort out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Weak wave diving into KS at 129 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 This map just about sums up my last 3 winters..the Mack snow shield is alive and well taken verbatim I would still have my power and therefore would be able to charge my phone to track the next 8-10 day system on AmericanWx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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