Wow Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 DGEX being DGEX again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 1 hour ago, burrel2 said: DGEX just dropped the hammer for the first time all season. It's showing a couple feet of snow for the upstate with temps in the mid 20's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
odell.moton Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Obviously we know that's not going to happen but. How reliable is that particular map and how much should we scale back those totals Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 3 minutes ago, Wow said: DGEX being DGEX again Am I correct that these colorful results are simply GIGO? Or are they some sort of 95th percential result? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 4 minutes ago, odell.moton said: Obviously we know that's not going to happen but. How reliable is that particular map and how much should we scale back those totals Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk 0% reliability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Euro EPS snowfall probabilities dropped WAY off for the mid-atlantic from about 70% for 1" snow to about 40%, the same probability as Central NC and Northern Counties of Gulf States. This is important because it shows the Euro isn't sold on a northern solution (VA/DC threat only) and no single area has great probabilities outside of the mountains. Game on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 12 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: And just for fun at hour 192 it's still snowing over a large area of the SE. Not going to happen but one can always dream. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/dgexops.conus/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 It's good that we're inside truncation and we now have only a 1 in the hundreds digit as opposed to a 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 EPS probabilities show a lower chance of a central US to MA track and at least the probability of a more southern solution as probability percentages decreased wildly over mid-central US and mid-atlantic. Click on the link in my signature to see the images (not posting here due to rules about paid Euro/ensembles) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 The GEFS looks good at day 5-6. Comparing the GEFS mean snowfall maps you can see how the northern tracks were cut back between 0z-6z. (0z left, 6z right) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 19 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: It's good that we're inside truncation and we now have only a 1 in the hundreds digit as opposed to a 3. Come on Shetley, this iS about 7-8 days away and about 5-6 days from starting to organize! You know the whole bullseye- 7-day-out - thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 How often do ridges build from MX up into central conus splitting a trough. I am sure it's happened but I can't recall. If it wants to build so bad, can it not build to the AK ridge instead of the Greenland ridge... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 The move toward the colder UKMet setup, if it continues, gives us a fighting chance. Without it, we got no shot. With it, the setup is still very sensitive to the timing and evolution of the PAC wave or waves kicking out. Ideally the PAC wave moving east would be tracking west to east along a farther south trajectory for more stream separation, but beggars can't be choosers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 3 minutes ago, packbacker said: How often do ridges build from MX up into central conus splitting a trough. I am sure it's happened but I can't recall. If it wants to build so bad, can it not build to the AK ridge instead of the Greenland ridge... Not sure if you saw my post on the previous page but definitely an interesting trend in the modeling...impressive height changes over the central US, timing would be just after s/w moves east, could help it stay south IMO. Compare the 18z vs 0z Jet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 As is typically the case, it all comes down to interaction between the northern and southern streams. Prior to 0z runs, we were trending with more northern energy phasing in with the western s/w earlier which halts the progression of the HP eastward and quickly moves the LP north and east. 0z abruptly went back to keeping them completely separate. 6z backtracked a bit with some interaction which weakened the s/w. As long as the s/w over the N Plains stays east and doesn't interact with the western wave, we're good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 9 minutes ago, Jon said: Not sure if you saw my post on the previous page but definitely an interesting trend in the modeling...impressive height changes over the central US, timing would be just after s/w moves east, could help it stay south IMO. Compare the 18z vs 0z Jet Was just reading that...good read. Agree, and anything that does come out will get kicked east..thus less amplification/climbing the coast. The UK actually has the ridge day 6 further west and a little taller, splitting the coast, it allows the trough in the east to really drop south, it has largest dev over Ohio. The EPS has a better atlantic block but UK keeps the trough coming out and the wave low coming into the pac more separated. Don't know what that means, but would like the UK pac and EPS atlantic. Both UK/Euro would be really suppressed at this range and like Grit said, we will need some luck on timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 2 minutes ago, Wow said: As is typically the case, it all comes down to interaction between the northern and southern streams. Prior to 0z runs, we were trending with more northern energy phasing in with the western s/w earlier which halts the progression of the HP eastward and quickly moves the LP north and east. 0z abruptly went back to keeping them completely separate. 6z backtracked a bit with some interaction which weakened the s/w. As long as the s/w over the N Plains stays east and doesn't interact with the western wave, we're good. Webber posted on the other board, that one of the pieces that is a player, went over areas that sample data yesterday, and that was the reason for the abrupt changes. Better data into the models. - paraphrasing, of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Definitely a strong storm signal showing on the models now. Hope it keeps up and it becomes just a question of how much we get. Of course in my area we always sit on the fine line of nothing at all and a huge hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 9 minutes ago, Wow said: As is typically the case, it all comes down to interaction between the northern and southern streams. Prior to 0z runs, we were trending with more northern energy phasing in with the western s/w earlier which halts the progression of the HP eastward and quickly moves the LP north and east. 0z abruptly went back to keeping them completely separate. 6z backtracked a bit with some interaction which weakened the s/w. As long as the s/w over the N Plains stays east and doesn't interact with the western wave, we're good. Yep...when looking comparing the h5 anomaly maps for the 0z UK at 132 v/s 12z from yesterday at the same time the 0z UK actually pops a full blown pac ridge keeping it separate. At 144 the low does crash into the coast and knocks the ridge down some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 After backing off at 12Z the 00Z EPS has half the members with measurable snow in the ATL area. One is 12"- shades of the DGEX. Right now I am leaning in the direction of a minor nuisance event here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 1 minute ago, Cheeznado said: After backing off at 12Z the 00Z EPS has half the members with measurable snow in the ATL area. One is 12"- shades of the DGEX. Right now I am leaning in the direction of a minor nuisance event here. Remember what 1 inch did to ATL a couple of years ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 6 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: After backing off at 12Z the 00Z EPS has half the members with measurable snow in the ATL area. One is 12"- shades of the DGEX. Right now I am leaning in the direction of a minor nuisance event here. It seems there are 3 options in that area. Slider with the high not likely pressing far enough south. Thats either PL or RA. Strong system with no wedge...rain. Strong system with wedge, massive ice storm. I don't see a major snow event now but I could definitely see a huge sleet or FZRA event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Another moderate wave 1 and wave 2 heat flux warming forecasted now on Berlin shortly after this potent one.So I don't think this PV and cold air mass is quite done moving yet in my opinion. Carry on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: It seems there are 3 options in that area. Slider with the high not likely pressing far enough south. Thats either PL or RA. Strong system with no wedge...rain. Strong system with wedge, massive ice storm. I don't see a major snow event now but I could definitely see a huge sleet or FZRA event. This is a hyperbolic post on my part, but a couple days ago I was looking to see if there was a case where we saw a good winter storm with a similar setup as the current modeling (mainly looking for a case with the ridge off the west coast). Here's the massive Atlanta ice storm from Jan 1973, which was a moderate snowstorm in NC. Lots of similarities here. Also, the low in E Canada originated from a system that tracked from Oklahoma and across the Great Lakes. Of course, for every positive analog match, there are a 1000 that ended up as rain or cirrus clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 15 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said: Another moderate wave 1 and wave 2 heat flux warming forecasted now on Berlin shortly after this potent one.So I don't think this PV and cold air mass is quite done moving yet in my opinion. Carry on. Much appreciated for your input, neighbor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 37 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: After backing off at 12Z the 00Z EPS has half the members with measurable snow in the ATL area. One is 12"- shades of the DGEX. Right now I am leaning in the direction of a minor nuisance event here. No such thing as a minor nuisance event in Atlanta. 1/2" of snow would cause chaos. It's either no event at all, or it's a major event. Major meaning snow sticks to the ground and/or roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Another variable is the extremely warm antecedent temperatures. Highs in the 70s on Tuesday will warm up the soil and asphalt considerably. This will limit any accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 21 minutes ago, SimeonNC said: I would assume this would lead to more cold air for us, right? It should keep it moved/displaced but hard to say where it will go this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said: Another variable is the extremely warm antecedent temperatures. Highs in the 70s on Tuesday will warm up the soil and asphalt considerably. This will limit any accumulations. No. It won't. We go over this every single year, soil temps can easily be overcome and have little to no effect on accums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 So far 12z GFS, more in line with the 0z rather than 6z WRT to the N Pac energy @57. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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