Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,609
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017


buckeyefan1

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 10.2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
4 minutes ago, broken024 said:

Any chance this first storm goes from Miller b to a and has more snow?

Something I am wondering about as well, especially here in the Piedmont sleet capital.  Almost always Miller Bs transfer the coastal low way too far north so we either dry slot here or stay all ice or transfer to rain.  This upcoming setup is a little out of the ordinary as far as the high pressure strength, so if we can get a transfer say, SE of Charleston I would think we may see a lot more snow.  Of course, if it is that south it may be a pure Miller A which would be great as well.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, Jonesing for a chase said:

Something I am wondering about as well, especially here in the Piedmont sleet capital.  Almost always Miller Bs transfer the coastal low way too far north so we either dry slot here or stay all ice or transfer to rain.  This upcoming setup is a little out of the ordinary as far as the high pressure strength, so if we can get a transfer say, SE of Charleston I would think we may see a lot more snow.  Of course, if it is that south it may be a pure Miller A which would be great as well.

Like Jan 2011...that was painful.  Op Euro has something similar to below past few runs, with low up in Oh then transferring and destroying MA to NE.

I don't see a miller a, need a true west base NAO...IMO.   Weak slider I guess is on the table, anything that amps will be a mb or hybrid.

2011011118.gif

 

 

accum.20110110.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 minutes ago, broken024 said:

Any chance this first storm goes from Miller b to a and has more snow?

To get a Miller A with more snow, the 500mb waves hitting the west coast would have to dig farther south. This would lead to a farther south track of the surface low. Today's CMC is the closest of today's runs at achieving a Miller A. 

From a modeling standpoint, what I like to see for a Miller A in the, say, 3-7 day timeframe is a storm that is missing us just to our south with plenty of cold air in place. What we currently have for next week is more of Miller B look. The ensemble height trends over E Canada and the Northeast, and the amount of wave digging out west are the key things to watch whether we're talking about next week or early Jan. The upper levels drive the bus for both storm track and cold air extent

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, broken024 said:

I'd take that January 11 event all day. I'm sure the Raleigh folks would disagree

The early part of the Jan '11 storm was a Miller A with big snow in N GA into the upstate. So it had a good snow footprint. The problem with it for central/northern NC was that the southern wave weakened quite a bit as it ejected out of the Deep South 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

24 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

That's the Pack I like to see!

I think what you see here is a situation where cad areas stay ice until the end.  The low off the coast, while rather weak, is just enough to minimize the low going up to the west.  I think there wil also be a precip min just east of the mountains.  I think the euro has been showing this as well. Not saying this will happen, just interpreting the model. 

TW

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...