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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017


buckeyefan1

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26 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

GFS modeled surface temps in this set up are useless. Look at the surface pressure map, and mid-level temps. Going off those maps... this would be ice for the cities I mentioned, 100% guarantee'd.

IF we get the CAD high in the right spot, temps will be 5-10 degrees colder than forecast for sure. I have saw it too many times. For example a couple years ago we had rain in our forecast with temps no lower than 34-36. What we got was mostly sleet with temps in the upper 20's. An even more stark example comes from 1987 when we had rain in the forecast in the GSP metro with temps in the mid 30's. We got sleet from that with the temp going all the way down to 24. 

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6 minutes ago, jshetley said:

IF we get the CAD high in the right spot, temps will be 5-10 degrees colder than forecast for sure. I have saw it too many times. For example a couple years ago we had rain in our forecast with temps no lower than 34-36. What we got was mostly sleet with temps in the upper 20's. An even more stark example comes from 1987 when we had rain in the forecast in the GSP metro with temps in the mid 30's. We got sleet from that with the temp going all the way down to 24. 

I wonder how "new to town" forecasters get trained to handle and forecast the wedge, because they can't go on "gut" reactions, if they've never experienced it before. I can almost assure you that on both thursday and friday I won't get out of the 30s, yet my forecast has me in the mid 40s both days; I possibly won't even come close to hitting those numbers.

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7 minutes ago, GreensboroWx said:

Yes, a good run, but there is a lot to sort out yet. Pretty confident of some sort of winter weather in the Southeast but there will be MANY twists and turns with each model run. 

I agree sir. The real caveat to everything is where the primary transfers. Could have major implications naturally on precip types. Everything else looks to be checked off in other fields. STJ connection from Baja, monster sprawling HP supplying the super cold. Even if it does transfer in WV, it would still be a winter threat in ice form. This upcoming pattern is the best I can remember in a long time. I remember when I lived in Connecticut still back in 2010/2011, we just got slaughtered with a parade of storms and ended up with record breaking snow amounts that year. Folks should be pumped up for this upcoming period. I would really like to see the Euro come back around again at 0z to this possibility. Seems like the GFS has come around to the CMC/NAVGEM in this respect of a solid overrunning event. Cheers! 

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12 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

By my count 17 of the 20 GFS ensemble members on Cod weather gives Upstate SC a major ice storm inside of 240hrs. The other 3 models runs are close to a hit as well.

 

Thats hella good consensus that cad favored areas are in for some fun time next week!

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1 hour ago, CummingGaSnow said:

It is not everyday in winter that we have so many possibilities at or inside of 10 days. Let him show his excitement and I will do the same!

The only problem for me is that the excitement turns to despair when things flip and the SER rears it's ugly head again.

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Temps really fall out the night of the 27th for several days.  Impressive cold coming if this verifies.  Maybe a solid week in the 30s/20s for the triad and much of NC.  So whatever falls likely stays.  Hope it isnt ZR.

Local WU forecast now shows 4" for the triad on the 29th/30th.  At least we made it inside of 10 days.....progress!

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37 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

By my count 17 of the 20 GFS ensemble members on Cod weather gives Upstate SC a major ice storm inside of 240hrs. The other 3 models runs are close to a hit as well.

 

I'm hoping we get sleet instead of ice. It's not going to be plain old rain IF that CAD high is there.  Of course a lot of things can change in 7 days.

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1 minute ago, jshetley said:

I'm hoping we get sleet instead of ice. It's not going to be plain old rain IF that CAD high is there.  Of course a lot of things can change in 7 days.

In the 2002 event, I wasn't supposed to get any sleet, it was supporting be all ZR, I had about an inch of sleet , with ZR. It would be nice to get a 2-3" crust of ZR and IP, to go with the cold to follow and hopefully, another storm!

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1 hour ago, SN_Lover said:

Feeling good for some snow. Missed out because of work, but willing to book a hotel in Boone next week. Desperation!!

That's where you will probably need to go to see snow from this storm. We have the coldest air on the earth coming our way and we still can't get any snow out of it. Freezing rain and power outages are for the birds.

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1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said:

In the 2002 event, I wasn't supposed to get any sleet, it was supporting be all ZR, I had about an inch of sleet , with ZR. It would be nice to get a 2-3" crust of ZR and IP, to go with the cold to follow and hopefully, another storm!

That 2002 storm cut our power off for 2 days. We did not get much sleet over here. It was basically all ZR.

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3 minutes ago, jshetley said:

That 2002 storm cut our power off for 2 days. We did not get much sleet over here. It was basically all ZR.

It's often a sharp line between p types! I remember going up to Gastonia a few weeks later and there were still huge piles of snow/sleet in the mall parking lots! I think they had 2-3 hours of snow, before going over to sleet. The thing that stands out was the way the cold locked in! I remember it being 30/31 all morning, and holding, the precip starting a little past noon, and temps getting down to 26/27 by nightfall and holding all night! Worst ice storm I ever experienced!

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RAH has some positive wording in their afternoon discussion:

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

As of 312 PM Friday...

 

Sunday: Precipitation will linger in the east as a frontal system

continues to push offshore but by afternoon much of the forecast

area except locations east of I-95 should be drying out. Cooler

temps but still expecting 50-60 degrees for high temperatures during

the afternoon. With the earlier clearing, expect lower low

temperatures as the cold air filters in. Near freezing in the Triad

to about 40 degrees in the southeast.

 

Christmas Day: With earlier onset of cold air advection, high

temperatures on Monday will be colder than originally expected. Now

expecting low 40s across the Triad with upper 40s across the south.

Expect clearing of skies and dry weather throughout the day. Lows

dropping well below freezing Christmas night across the forecast

area. Mid to upper 20s expected.

 

Midweek will be cool and dry with temperatures ranging from the mid

40s to near 50 degrees Tuesday and Wednesday and then a dry cold

front will come through to reinforce the colder air on Thursday

leading to highs in the lower to mid 40s. Lows during this time in

the upper 20s to low 30s.

 

Things start to look much more interesting as far as the potential

for some winter weather are concerned Thursday night into Friday as

a low pressure system develops off of the Carolina coast and heads

northward. Very little confidence in the forecast models this far

out even with pattern recognition and especially with P-Type so will

say little at this point other than the potential is there and it

will be worth following over the course of the next week to see how

the forecast evolves

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