franklin NCwx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Isn't it a little unusual for a southeast winter storm to come from a wave that enters the US via Washington State? Very Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: No, that's fine as long as the move ese! Which should be doable with the confluence Hope so. I haven't gone back and looked at our best storms, but it seems like the most common trajectory is entry via southern CA. Either way, should be some good high pressure to work with, which is my number one key ingredient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 3 hours ago, msuwx said: What time period? This is cold. The earlier period, Thursday and Friday, the storm window. Sorry, I'm on the go today, just a quick glance but it looked not so cold for the 28 and 29th, could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Next wave in the fast flow is tracking from N OR to S WY out to 156. More ridging behind this one. First wave amounted to nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Please don't laugh but if I recall the NAVGEM did pretty well with the last winter event? https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=navgem®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2017122212&fh=168&xpos=0&ypos=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 The " one" is now back to 8-10 days away! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Euro does get a light mix going hr162-168. Next wave dropping into KS now. Temps are iffy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Just a bunch a waves in fast flow on the Euro, but there's going to be a decent system here on Dec30 at hr180...but with W Lakes low. Some CAD, but not the best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 This block over the Hudson bay is key. This locks in the HP and forces any s/w south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 At 186, light snow in N NC...ice down into NE GA. Same at 192. E NC above freezing...not a stout CAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 12z GEFS was good to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 hour ago, Hammer said: Another “Atlantan “ here... I always have the same questions. I just look at it as opportunities to learn and plan quick trips skiing . Pro Woof woof, big dog potential for a se forum wide event. Sure a lot can go wrong but there is a chance. A lot can also go just right and then boom goes the dynamite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Pretty stout ice storm on the Euro...it's a west to east tracking system out to hr198. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 4 minutes ago, griteater said: Pretty stout ice storm on the Euro...it's a west to east tracking system out to hr198. Tries to phase in the arctic wave way too soon .. I really think this is going stay a separate wave and run a Miller A low for the New year's eve storm. The Baffin Block will not allow a phase like this if it is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Just now, Wow said: Tries to phase in the arctic wave way too soon .. I really think this is going stay a separate wave and run a Miller A low. The Baffin Block will not allow a phase like this. That's what we'd want to see....get this wave to dig farther south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 5 minutes ago, griteater said: Pretty stout ice storm on the Euro...it's a west to east tracking system out to hr198. Switches us back to snow, looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: Pretty stout ice storm on the Euro...it's a west to east tracking system out to hr198. Thought it was a pretty good run...squashed wave on day 5 and then day 8-9 deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Interesting to see the 12z euro ensembles today. The operational gets a better validity % each run imho but not necessarily more accurate. Are ensembles still the way to go guys this far out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Just now, Queencitywx said: Switches us back to snow, looks like. Yeah there's some snow in there on the ptype maps...hard to say, but it's way more north with the track than optimal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Euro depiction looks similar to the major 2005 ice storm I posted about last night... even if we get that lakes low... it doesn't mean we won't have significant icing.. Notice with that 2005 storm, the block/ridge in the same position in Southeast Canada.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 squash is good for us pack. Can't do but one thing if it is going to score for anybody in SE and that is move north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 32 minutes ago, Wow said: This block over the Hudson bay is key. This locks in the HP and forces any s/w south. What about dry pattern though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Just now, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: What about the dry pattern though? seems to be at peak of wave Chuck, nobody knows what you mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 What in the H E double hockey sticks are you saying? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Just a slight adjustment on the JMA from it's previous run.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 This sure has changed in the last few days... 12z GFS for KJNX... 16 day TOTAL PRECIP: 0.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 minute ago, CaryWx said: squash is good for us pack. Can't do but one thing if it is going to score for anybody in SE and that is move north. Agreed...the day 8-9 is such fantasy land, it seems anything after day 5 changes with each run including the ensembles for all the globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Better run on the Euro,shortwave is a bit more SW cutting through CO and OK.Not as good as the 12/20 12z run though which went through NM and TX. Shortwave looked a bit weaker but if it digs it should spark a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Love these QPF mins...Mack to Grit to ColdRain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 I’m fine being in the QPF min at day 9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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