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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017


buckeyefan1

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  On 12/22/2017 at 5:25 PM, Hammer said:


Another “Atlantan “ here...
I always have the same questions. I just look at it as opportunities to learn and plan quick trips skiing :)


. Pro

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Hey there. This is completely OT (sorry mods) but how much snow did you get on 12/8-9? About 8.5" here. You're just a county over from me so was just wondering

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It's crazy. I got an 8" snowstorm pop up out of nowhere basically with no talk about anything big until it was literally already happening, but watching the models waver back and forth is ALMOST as good as the actual event (given that it performs even remotely close to being a winter storm). Watching a great model run before the event is awesome. And yes, I am definitely a weenie lol.

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  On 12/22/2017 at 5:57 PM, CaryWx said:

pack,  My sense is his will shift further SOUTH on the upcoming runs next few days---BEFORE...retreating back NW a bit. Hopefully we still fall in the range but gonna be close.

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Yeah I agree this setup is actually really good for NC especially central and eastern NC.....if that high strength and location is right and it hangs in there like the models have without slipping out its pretty much textbook 4-6" or better for a lot of NC....here in east NC we need that big strong locked in high to get big totals....if anything the models are going to be to warm in this range with a CAD setup like this is shaping up to be hopefully. This setup might actually pay off, I havent more than a few inches of snow for 2-3 years now here....and we havent had more than 4" since 2014. 

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  On 12/22/2017 at 6:00 PM, CummingGaSnow said:
It's crazy. I got an 8" snowstorm pop up out of nowhere basically with no talk about anything big until it was literally already happening, but watching the models waver back and forth is ALMOST as good as the actual event (given that it performs even remotely close to being a winter storm). Watching a great model run before the event is awesome. And yes, I am definitely a weenie lol.
Sometimes no one knows for sure what could happen intil hours of the event, even down to minutes. With weather, always expect the unexpected. I can be a weenie too, you're not the only one. lol.

Sent from my SM-J327T1 using Tapatalk

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  On 12/22/2017 at 6:08 PM, griteater said:

Not that I trust the cmc or any model necessarily, but it has a beautiful wave pass....wave moves into S California then into the S Plains....this is ideal.

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It’s been more trustworthy this year than the GarbageForecastSystem (GFS). I actually prefer it. Seems to have more consistency. The Euro has been horrid as well. I think NAVGEM, CMC, UKIE may be outperforming. I’m pretty sure you have been doing statistical analysis and model verification if I remember correctly from something you created to track and see which model scored the “W” on the ultimate outcome. 

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  On 12/22/2017 at 4:28 PM, snowlover91 said:

Maybe it isn't a good run for your back yard but for those who live in that 6" zone they'd be pretty happy with it. CMC is similar so it appears the idea of a weak first wave with ample cold is going to be what we see, the key is just the track and strength of the vort now.

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Be careful, you're conceding the cold way too soon here. If there is one certain in the SE below about 3000 ft, it's that cold is a concern 99.9% of the time, and this one is no different; a very borderline situation for most.

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  On 12/22/2017 at 6:17 PM, Buddy1987 said:

It’s been more trustworthy this year than the GarbageForecastSystem (GFS). I actually prefer it. Seems to have more consistency. The Euro has been horrid as well. I think NAVGEM, CMC, UKIE may be outperforming. I’m pretty sure you have been doing statistical analysis and model verification if I remember correctly from something you created to track and see which model scored the “W” on the ultimate outcome. 

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Yeah there's a thread out there...I haven't updated it yet (lazy) for the last storm which was a win for the UKMet and CMC

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  On 12/22/2017 at 6:12 PM, StormLookout said:

Sometimes no one knows for sure what could happen intil hours of the event, even down to minutes. With weather, always expect the unexpected. I can be a weenie too, you're not the only one. lol.

Sent from my SM-J327T1 using Tapatalk
 

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I think that has got to go down as one of the most "freak" snowstorms ever in North GA. I don't think any forecasts called for more than about 2" except in the mountains. My area was under a winter weather advisory even when we had already met warning criteria. Crazy.

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  On 12/22/2017 at 6:24 PM, Cold Rain said:

Isn't it a little unusual for a southeast winter storm to come from a wave that enters the US via Washington State?

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Not preferred.  Euro looks really flat with the next wave out to 144.  It's a little colder, but there's no ridging behind it...probably have to wait for the next one

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