mrdaddyman Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 GEFS Mean: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 This is going to be a real big mean again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Don't know if it's correct but the GEFS is really building that block deep into HB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 UK really likes some overrunning day 5-6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CummingGaSnow Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 22 minutes ago, Hammer said: Another “Atlantan “ here... I always have the same questions. I just look at it as opportunities to learn and plan quick trips skiing . Pro Hey there. This is completely OT (sorry mods) but how much snow did you get on 12/8-9? About 8.5" here. You're just a county over from me so was just wondering Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 minute ago, packbacker said: UK really likes some overrunning day 5-6. That's just the appetizer! The next ones going to be like a 40oz ribeye, with a loaded baked potato, and sweet tea to wash it down! Then boberry biscuits for dessert ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 I don't believe I've ever seen such a bullish GEFS snow mean... impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 minute ago, burrel2 said: I don't believe I've ever seen such a bullsh*t GEFS snow mean... impressive. FYP, but man, I agree! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 5 minutes ago, packbacker said: UK really likes some overrunning day 5-6. According to the meteociel maps, it looks cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CummingGaSnow Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 6 minutes ago, packbacker said: UK really likes some overrunning day 5-6. I am in the jackpot for QPF right there. What are temps like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Looks like the totals for the GEFS mean increased a tick further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Just now, CummingGaSnow said: I am in the jackpot for QPF right there. What are temps like? Can't see temps on the UK past 72...but strong HP is in place over the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Just now, packbacker said: Can't see temps on the UK past 72...but strong HP is in place over the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 34 minutes ago, packbacker said: We know this will shift north but nice location as it is. QPF days 6-8. pack, My sense is his will shift further SOUTH on the upcoming runs next few days---BEFORE...retreating back NW a bit. Hopefully we still fall in the range but gonna be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CummingGaSnow Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 It's crazy. I got an 8" snowstorm pop up out of nowhere basically with no talk about anything big until it was literally already happening, but watching the models waver back and forth is ALMOST as good as the actual event (given that it performs even remotely close to being a winter storm). Watching a great model run before the event is awesome. And yes, I am definitely a weenie lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 14 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: FYP, but man, I agree! Looking better than bitcoin today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 3 minutes ago, CaryWx said: pack, My sense is his will shift further SOUTH on the upcoming runs next few days---BEFORE...retreating back NW a bit. Hopefully we still fall in the range but gonna be close. Yeah I agree this setup is actually really good for NC especially central and eastern NC.....if that high strength and location is right and it hangs in there like the models have without slipping out its pretty much textbook 4-6" or better for a lot of NC....here in east NC we need that big strong locked in high to get big totals....if anything the models are going to be to warm in this range with a CAD setup like this is shaping up to be hopefully. This setup might actually pay off, I havent more than a few inches of snow for 2-3 years now here....and we havent had more than 4" since 2014. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 9 minutes ago, CaryWx said: pack, My sense is his will shift further SOUTH on the upcoming runs next few days---BEFORE...retreating back NW a bit. Hopefully we still fall in the range but gonna be close. I was thinking the same thing. We've seen that dance before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 hour ago, Queencitywx said: The canadian has a better looking wave at 138. Not that I trust the cmc or any model necessarily, but it has a beautiful wave pass....wave moves into S California then into the S Plains....this is ideal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 The mean, while a touch lower this run, is more evenly spread out between all of the members. I actually prefer it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormLookout Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 It's crazy. I got an 8" snowstorm pop up out of nowhere basically with no talk about anything big until it was literally already happening, but watching the models waver back and forth is ALMOST as good as the actual event (given that it performs even remotely close to being a winter storm). Watching a great model run before the event is awesome. And yes, I am definitely a weenie lol.Sometimes no one knows for sure what could happen intil hours of the event, even down to minutes. With weather, always expect the unexpected. I can be a weenie too, you're not the only one. lol. Sent from my SM-J327T1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 6 minutes ago, griteater said: Not that I trust the cmc or any model necessarily, but it has a beautiful wave pass....wave moves into S California then into the S Plains....this is ideal. It’s been more trustworthy this year than the GarbageForecastSystem (GFS). I actually prefer it. Seems to have more consistency. The Euro has been horrid as well. I think NAVGEM, CMC, UKIE may be outperforming. I’m pretty sure you have been doing statistical analysis and model verification if I remember correctly from something you created to track and see which model scored the “W” on the ultimate outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 hour ago, snowlover91 said: Maybe it isn't a good run for your back yard but for those who live in that 6" zone they'd be pretty happy with it. CMC is similar so it appears the idea of a weak first wave with ample cold is going to be what we see, the key is just the track and strength of the vort now. Be careful, you're conceding the cold way too soon here. If there is one certain in the SE below about 3000 ft, it's that cold is a concern 99.9% of the time, and this one is no different; a very borderline situation for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said: It’s been more trustworthy this year than the GarbageForecastSystem (GFS). I actually prefer it. Seems to have more consistency. The Euro has been horrid as well. I think NAVGEM, CMC, UKIE may be outperforming. I’m pretty sure you have been doing statistical analysis and model verification if I remember correctly from something you created to track and see which model scored the “W” on the ultimate outcome. Yeah there's a thread out there...I haven't updated it yet (lazy) for the last storm which was a win for the UKMet and CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CummingGaSnow Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 7 minutes ago, StormLookout said: Sometimes no one knows for sure what could happen intil hours of the event, even down to minutes. With weather, always expect the unexpected. I can be a weenie too, you're not the only one. lol. Sent from my SM-J327T1 using Tapatalk I think that has got to go down as one of the most "freak" snowstorms ever in North GA. I don't think any forecasts called for more than about 2" except in the mountains. My area was under a winter weather advisory even when we had already met warning criteria. Crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Euro at hr117-123 on Dec27 is a little colder with the weak initial system...has some light snow in S TN into W NC. Next wave is entering the west coast in Wash state Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Isn't it a little unusual for a southeast winter storm to come from a wave that enters the US via Washington State? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Just now, Cold Rain said: Isn't it a little unusual for a southeast winter storm to come from a wave that enters the US via Washington State? No, that's fine as long as the move ese! Which should be doable with the confluence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Isn't it a little unusual for a southeast winter storm to come from a wave that enters the US via Washington State? Not preferred. Euro looks really flat with the next wave out to 144. It's a little colder, but there's no ridging behind it...probably have to wait for the next one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Isn't it a little unusual for a southeast winter storm to come from a wave that enters the US via Washington State? Is there anything "usual" about our weather anymore? Seems what we thought would happen based on things from the past don't apply much anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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