WarmNose Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 2 minutes ago, snowlover91 said: Maybe it isn't a good run for your back yard but for those who live in that 6" zone they'd be pretty happy with it. CMC is similar so it appears the idea of a weak first wave with ample cold is going to be what we see, the key is just the track and strength of the vort now. I'll concede to that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Just a reminder... we had similar evolution with the last winter storm... some models had too warm/north solutions... then they all settled on weaker/ too far south/ no precip solutions... then we watched the modeled precip shield tick back north and west as we approached the event... to the point of having the mountains go from nothing to a foot+ slam job. I really, really like where we are sitting at this point. Couldn't ask for a better 144hr prog across the globals, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 21 minutes ago, CummingGaSnow said: That is good for us in North GA right? Also, I don't know if you read FFC's morning discussion but they're already talking of a possible strong wedge with winter mischief. This far out with a high in the mid 40s spells big trouble. The ECMWF is building quite a strong wedge in place for Thursday night into Friday. The GFS also has a pretty decent wedge in place, but is a little slower with the coastal low development. The cold air wedge could potentially cause a wintry mix across far northern GA. It is still seven days out and the forecast will likely change, so all interested parties should continue to monitor the forecast. I have a question though, why do they say only far northern GA could get winter precip when we know the wedge sends the coldest temps into the LOWER elevations of east GA. Is it just their conservatism saying that? Could mean from a snow or cold rain. Or a ice to cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 2 minutes ago, WarmNose said: I'll concede to that This also isn't far from being a MUCH bigger storm across the region. Amplify the western ridge a bit more and dig the energy some into Texas and the snow maps will look much nicer. I'd rather have a weak vort like this versus a bomb that drives in WAA like crazy and we have to hope for CAD to give wintry weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormLookout Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 That's the beginnings of the New Year storm. Sent from my SM-J327T1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 GEFS should be fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: GEFS should be fun Will probably be a kitchen sink special: Cutters, Miller B, southern slider, out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Let's not forget that this is often the range that these waves often appear flatter and weaker. It probably has to do with sampling. This is a great run, if you ask me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 It'll be interesting to see what the 12z Navy and JMA do. Both of those models have been firmly in the amped up GFS camp for a while now. Wonder if they jump ship as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 New Years storm just dove into the gulf, snow across Birmingham and the far northern shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broken024 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Interesting look at 240 too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 GFS looks locked and loaded for round two around New Years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Too early to tell anything for sure, of course, but with these runs...we might have ourselves a ballgame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 minute ago, Tar Heel Snow said: Too early to tell anything for sure, of course, but with these runs...we might have ourselves a ballgame. The players are certainly out on the field Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 We're potentially heading into potentially one of the best patterns that we've potentially seen in at least a couple of years, which holds a lot of potential for a winter event, via a potentially cold and potentially active period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 2 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: New Years storm just dove into the gulf, snow across Birmingham and the far northern shield. That's gonna be the big one! We will hopefully have a sleet pack laid down and make it colder for this wave! South is where we want it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Just now, Cold Rain said: We're potentially heading into potentially one of the best patterns that we've potentially seen in at least a couple of years, which holds a lot of potential for a winter event, via a potentially cold and potentially active period. Positivity potentially Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: We're potentially heading into potentially one of the best patterns that we've potentially seen in at least a couple of years, which holds a lot of potential for a winter event, via a potentially cold and potentially active period. I’d go as far to say best pattern since 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: We're potentially heading into potentially one of the best patterns that we've potentially seen in at least a couple of years, which holds a lot of potential for a winter event, via a potentially cold and potentially active period. Keeping thoughts of the RDU bubble/snow shield as suppressed as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormLookout Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 33 minutes ago, CummingGaSnow said: That is good for us in North GA right? Also, I don't know if you read FFC's morning discussion but they're already talking of a possible strong wedge with winter mischief. This far out with a high in the mid 40s spells big trouble. The ECMWF is building quite a strong wedge in place for Thursday night into Friday. The GFS also has a pretty decent wedge in place, but is a little slower with the coastal low development. The cold air wedge could potentially cause a wintry mix across far northern GA. It is still seven days out and the forecast will likely change, so all interested parties should continue to monitor the forecast. I have a question though, why do they say only far northern GA could get winter precip when we know the wedge sends the coldest temps into the LOWER elevations of east GA. Is it just their conservatism saying that? Yes, I think they're just being conservative. Also, keep in mind that mountains produce lift. More chance at something falling there than outside of the mountains. But, as they state, they said, "the forecast will likely change." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1) 1040 HP over the plains 2) diving cold 3) LP over the GoM that sweeps over Florida... if that low cuts up the coast instead of OTS that is a deadringer of the 1973 pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 33 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: The GFS is so useless. 27 minutes ago, Lookout said: it sure is. I was concerned that this system would be much flatter/drier based on the other models and it seems the gfs finally caught a clue there but good grief the differences at the surface and aloft from one run to the next are just past the point of comical. Just compare the 500mb maps between this run and the last one/several. it's incredible. I think you could be blind folded and throw darts and be just about as accurate as the gfs at this range. Ha, the thing to me is not so much how good or bad the GFS is, as it is the excessive attention it gets that it doesn't deserve. A challenge here could be keeping the waves far enough south. Not much wiggle room Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormLookout Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 It's so funny what the GFS does with the moisture with the New Years system. lol. There's going to be widespread moisture, especially with a Gulf low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broken024 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 So many opportunities to screw this up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 I'm getting sucked in...damn it. Canadian sticks to the two piece suppressed system solution from last night. GFS tries to do something similar. Looks great for MBY, plus no one gets a crippling ice storm! Too bad those are OP runs at range. The New Years system is so suppressed it moves over south FL. Exactly where we want it 10 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 GFS is all over the place and throwing darts with the specifics, but the good thing is it still ends up with a nice winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Like the optimism, but for next week, I'd like to see the eastern U.S. height field farther south. Last night's Euro for example was weak and too far north with the wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 GEFS mean is a GSO to Roxboro (4-5") jackpot with 2" all the way down to Columbia. Definitely suppressed and would guess a few whiffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 We know this will shift north but nice location as it is. QPF days 6-8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hammer Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 I would say they are being conservative. Glad to see another metro Atlantan....was thinking everyone on here was from NC lol Another “Atlantan “ here...I always have the same questions. I just look at it as opportunities to learn and plan quick trips skiing . Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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