Cold Rain Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Friday Index Report, Christmas movie edition: Merry Christmas, ya filthy animals! And a Happy New Year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 tarheel, Comes when big High Pressure (HP) to our north and usually located in southeast Canada or the US northeast rotates shallow (near surface) cold air down the eastern seaboard and banks it up against the App. mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 49 minutes ago, WarmNose said: Give me 3 inches of IP topped off with a little freezing rain followed by 4 days of temps in the 30's then I'll take this Miller A and we can crank the SER and call it a winter Again, It's always at the end of the run. The GFS feels like . . . Oooh, you almost had it . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 I can’t help but laugh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Looking great this a.m. and the overnight,past 24 hr trends have done nothing but increase my confidence even more. Surface Cold will be there for frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 37 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: what is the 6z snowfall mean? 10 Day GEFS Mean. Didn't want to go out too far as to try to just cover the first possible upcoming winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 15 minutes ago, mrdaddyman said: 10 Day GEFS Mean. Didn't want to go out too far as to try to just cover the first possible upcoming winter storm. Everyone needs to know too that these GEFS snowfall maps don’t factor out ice... so a lot of this is actually ice instead of snow. Still a good signal for a widespread ice storm imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 hour ago, snowlover91 said: CMC ensembles are AMAZING for the Southeast if you like snow and ice, especially NC. Check them out here. http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/ensemble-forecasting.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=cmc_geps&stn=PT&stn_type=postagestamp&display=img&hh=132 Interesting to note Alot of those members show a very icy and snowy Texas to North Carolina Virginia at some point in time. Another interesting note the chaos begins in another 5 days or so.?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 I can’t help but laugh...Welcome to the world of Auto generated forecasts based off the GFS Op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormLookout Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 12z GFS: Things have shifted south, ridge is also weaker/flat over the south. May have a much southern solution on this GFS OP run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 8 minutes ago, StormLookout said: 12z GFS: Things have shifted south, ridge is also weaker/flat over the south. May have a much southern solution on this GFS OP run. things getting interesting for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CummingGaSnow Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 6 minutes ago, StormLookout said: 12z GFS: Things have shifted south, ridge is also weaker/flat over the south. May have a much southern solution on this GFS OP run. That is good for us in North GA right? Also, I don't know if you read FFC's morning discussion but they're already talking of a possible strong wedge with winter mischief. This far out with a high in the mid 40s spells big trouble. The ECMWF is building quite a strong wedge in place for Thursday night into Friday. The GFS also has a pretty decent wedge in place, but is a little slower with the coastal low development. The cold air wedge could potentially cause a wintry mix across far northern GA. It is still seven days out and the forecast will likely change, so all interested parties should continue to monitor the forecast. I have a question though, why do they say only far northern GA could get winter precip when we know the wedge sends the coldest temps into the LOWER elevations of east GA. Is it just their conservatism saying that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormLookout Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Ridge is building in from the west on the 12z GFS OP. May have a late bloomer for NC towards the NE US. This 12z GFS OP run is similar as the 0z EPS control. I'm more interested on the New Year storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Well that’s interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 The GFS is so useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Great GFS run...no SER equals flatter wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 FINALLY some agreement from the models. The UK has been hinting at this coastal popping since yesterday, now CMC and GFS show this. With this being 6 days out its a good start to some model agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 It looks like all the models are in pretty tight agreement now... weak wave with ample CAD. I'll take it... I would much rather hope for wetter trends over the next 3 or 4 days than having to hope for a colder trend. If things happen as usual, we should see the consensus weak wave transversing west to east on all the models start to dig a little more as we approach the vent. Hopefully just enough to give a nice winter storm for everyone in CAD areas. Also with this scenario, should be mainly snow for NC, with surface temps in the low to mid 20's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Uneventful light flurries for the Carolinas but still a good trend on the 12z GFS. Moving away from the cutter idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Notice the similarities now at 5H with the CMC and GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 minute ago, burrel2 said: It looks like all the models are in pretty tight agreement now... weak wave with ample CAD. I'll take it... I would much rather hope for wetter trends over the next 3 or 4 days than having to hope for a colder trend. Yes sir. We can buy moisture with all the water around us but not more cold air, usually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justincobbco Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 10 minutes ago, CummingGaSnow said: That is good for us in North GA right? Also, I don't know if you read FFC's morning discussion but they're already talking of a possible strong wedge with winter mischief. This far out with a high in the mid 40s spells big trouble. The ECMWF is building quite a strong wedge in place for Thursday night into Friday. The GFS also has a pretty decent wedge in place, but is a little slower with the coastal low development. The cold air wedge could potentially cause a wintry mix across far northern GA. It is still seven days out and the forecast will likely change, so all interested parties should continue to monitor the forecast. I have a question though, why do they say only far northern GA could get winter precip when we know the wedge sends the coldest temps into the LOWER elevations of east GA. Is it just their conservatism saying that? I would say they are being conservative. Glad to see another metro Atlantan....was thinking everyone on here was from NC lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 minute ago, WarmNose said: Uneventful light flurries for the Carolinas but still a good trend on the 12z GFS. Moving away from the cutter idea I would hardly call 6" of snow in Eastern NC uneventful... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 The canadian has a better looking wave at 138. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 minute ago, snowlover91 said: I would hardly call 6" of snow in Eastern NC uneventful... Meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 3 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: The GFS is so useless. it sure is. I was concerned that this system would be much flatter/drier based on the other models and it seems the gfs finally caught a clue there but good grief the differences at the surface and aloft from one run to the next are just past the point of comical. Just compare the 500mb maps between this run and the last one/several. it's incredible. I think you could be blind folded and throw darts and be just about as accurate as the gfs at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CummingGaSnow Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 minute ago, Justincobbco said: I would say they are being conservative. Glad to see another metro Atlantan....was thinking everyone on here was from NC lol Nope, there's quite a few of us in here lol. We just don't get out as much cause we don't get as much action. But the main North Georgian I look for input from is Lookout. He's the man when it comes to deciphering models and he has TONS of knowledge when it comes to winter weather and the wedge. You actually also have quite a few people from Cobb Co. that post in here. You are not alone my friend lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 minute ago, Queencitywx said: Not an expert by any stretch, but the two frames after this show a hole in precip that closes up in frame three. If indeed we are just hoping for moisture, we'd need it there if we're taking this model literally. (which we shouldn't, but fun to think about) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 minute ago, WarmNose said: Meh Maybe it isn't a good run for your back yard but for those who live in that 6" zone they'd be pretty happy with it. CMC is similar so it appears the idea of a weak first wave with ample cold is going to be what we see, the key is just the track and strength of the vort now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.