packbacker Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 I don't recall a potential event where a day 6 EPS mean showed a 1040hp over the lakes...the OP was 1039. EPS has the system coming in at this time but the HP starts to lift out, I guess if that holds...or I guess if it lifts out quicker. GEFS is 1043 but lifts out quicker. I guess to get snow in Raleigh we need a 1060 over NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 In the FWIW category, if the 6z GFS were correct, it's a very favorable setup for CAD and models being significantly too warm with SFC temps. Look at the 1046mb high pressure location in SE Canada just prior to the event and as the event is winding down. Doesn't move out to sea...only slowly retreats northward. Model temps would bust. Then again, it's the Day 7 GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Another gulf low on the EPS day 13...early Jan may be our chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Here's the 0z Canadian snow totals (10:1) at hour 228: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 anyone got the 6z ensembles? on another note, why is the CAD being eroded quicker the last few runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Just now, Orangeburgwx said: anyone got the 6z ensembles? on another note, why is the CAD being eroded quicker the last few runs? 06Z actually held it longer here. 24 hours of snow to freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 47 minutes ago, msuwx said: In the FWIW category, if the 6z GFS were correct, it's a very favorable setup for CAD and models being significantly too warm with SFC temps. Look at the 1046mb high pressure location in SE Canada just prior to the event and as the event is winding down. Doesn't move out to sea...only slowly retreats northward. Model temps would bust. Then again, it's the Day 7 GFS. Exactly the same thing I thought when studying the models this am. NO WAY surface temps warm that much with 1040+ high over SE Canada....it could be very icy for many with this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 2 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: anyone got the 6z ensembles? on another note, why is the CAD being eroded quicker the last few runs? The global models have a tough time resolving low level temperatures in the long range. Honestly, we need to wait until we get inside the NAM range to get a better handle on the surface temps. You have to go with pattern recognition and with a cold 1040+ high anchored over the NE/SE Canada there will be plenty of cold/dry air all the way down to GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 2 hours ago, FLweather said: And usually with these type of systems most of the precip usually comes on the front end and faster than depicting of the model. Systems like these often have dry slots too. So good chance once the temps warm aloft precip cuts down. Interesting though that's what's happening on this 6z run between hours 192-198. 850 trough swings through and mid levels start drying out. First part of your statement I do agree with, whereas precip normally does stream in quite a bit faster than progged. In regards to dry slots and what not, it truly depends on where the primary decays and transfers. If it were to occur in Eastern TN vs WV panhandle, it would allow the low off the coast to get cranking and would allow the precip to keep producing. The STJ is just unbelievable, with origins straight from Baja, so that’s something I would watch closely. My gut would tell me with the way things are current, not saying this is final outcome, with that high pressure as strong as it is being modeled, would not allow the low to move that far north. Someone had mentioned last night that any insinuation that high pressures do not get moved out of the way by low pressures is erroneous. I wholeheartedly disagree and it’s funny because I actually had a nice convo with Bob Chill on this from the Mid Atlantic forum. As long as you have the right setup and other varying factors, that high pressure, as strong as it is progged to be, will be stubborn to budge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 The GFS is having the same temp issues with snowcover that it had last year, fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Models are unsure which wave to key in on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Some storms QPF, ends up lower than modeled 5+ days out. Like tonight/tomorrow's rain event was looking like a deluge a few days back, now for my back yard, it's a measly frontal passage with showers and .25 or less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 I think the overall takeaway we need to realize is we will have a 1040+ HP in a solid CAD position and there will be several waves moving through which could easily bring wintry weather for many... It's too early to be trying to iron out the details or take each OP run as gospel truth. Once we get under 96 hours AND in range of the NAM and other high res models that can pick up the CAD and other important details we will have a much better idea. Honestly, with how well the 3km NAM has performed inside 60 hours compared with every other model, I'm waiting until inside that range before getting my hopes up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 10 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Some storms QPF, ends up lower than modeled 5+ days out. Like tonight/tomorrow's rain event was looking like a deluge a few days back, now for my back yard, it's a measly frontal passage with showers and .25 or less That's because it went from a strong cutter to a weaker frontal passage. This is also the reason its not as cold . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shahroz98 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 GFS on its 6z run is cranking out 4+ inches in the CAD regions.. what could possibly go wrong ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broken024 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Lol is e1 showing 35 inches by end of run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 4 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: e1 is off its rocker... got the actual run image for that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 I really don't like how bad the eps looked overnight. Raised the heights in the south east and just not very cold. Hopefully that corrects today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Give me 3 inches of IP topped off with a little freezing rain followed by 4 days of temps in the 30's then I'll take this Miller A and we can crank the SER and call it a winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 CMC ensembles are AMAZING for the Southeast if you like snow and ice, especially NC. Check them out here. http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/ensemble-forecasting.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=cmc_geps&stn=PT&stn_type=postagestamp&display=img&hh=132 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 12 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: I really don't like how bad the eps looked overnight. Raised the heights in the south east and just not very cold. Hopefully that corrects today. What time period? This is cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 minute ago, msuwx said: What time period? This is cold. uh, yeah... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 8 minutes ago, snowlover91 said: CMC ensembles are AMAZING for the Southeast if you like snow and ice, especially NC. Check them out here. http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/ensemble-forecasting.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=cmc_geps&stn=PT&stn_type=postagestamp&display=img&hh=132 A lot of possibilities for sure. A lot of members holding back energy for a bigger dog at 200+ hours but some look strung out under suppression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Just getting caught up from the runs last night. Models still are different from each other, and the GFS op is all over the place. The ensembles continue to look great for here, though. Euro showing a storm, too. So is the Canadian. The specifics still need to be ironed out, but I think it's looking more and more like a winter storm is going to impact a lot of NC late next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 what is the 6z snowfall mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 If CAD favored areas can't score with this favorable 50/50 and a 1040+ HP I'm convinced we never score again. I'll be ok to go ahead and crank the SER on January 3rd. Then I won't have to spread this 50lb bag of winter rye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 I realize this is a big newbie question, but what exactly is CAD? I’ve figured out some of the other abbreviations you guys use, but can’t figure out CAD! Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Just now, Tar Heel Snow said: I realize this is a big newbie question, but what exactly is CAD? I’ve figured out some of the other abbreviations you guys use, but can’t figure out CAD! Thanks! Cold Air Damming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 I realize this is a big newbie question, but what exactly is CAD? I’ve figured out some of the other abbreviations you guys use, but can’t figure out CAD! Thanks!Cold Air Damming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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