mackerel_sky Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Just now, WarmNose said: Why does this look like a slightly more amp'd version of the CMC to me? Is it because I'm a poor man's John Cesserich? More like KK! She's probably got 60 and p/c for next Friday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Euro out to 135 has the weak initial system again on Dec27...has precip farther north this run, but not cold enough, it's light rain up into NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Euro at 150 has a weak wave in ID/WY diving SE....it's noticeably flatter than the GFS which digs it hard into the 4 corners....temps are just so so in the Carolinas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Euro sounds like a toss already just from Grit's pbp glad I stayed up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Out to 168, the wave is weak and tracks into MO/IL...precip to the NW of us...we'll have to wait on the next wave down the line...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: Out to 168, the wave is weak and tracks into MO/IL...precip to the NW of us...we'll have to wait on the next wave down the line...lol so we miss on New Years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 At 174, it gets some light precip going...light ice in NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Back to a 9-10 day threat on Euro! Winning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 The system has some late phasing and hits the Mid Atl pretty good into the coastal NE....just some light icing for NC though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Back to a 9-10 day threat on Euro! Winning! Only 10 days away! Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Gained the GFS but lost the EURO again... I am not liking this a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Ensembles will save us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Guess the SE trend ceased! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 minute ago, WarmNose said: Ensembles will save us I hope so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Overall, the Euro isn't as suppressed with the height field along the east coast this run out to 204...everything's a bit north and a bit warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Feed back problems on Euro!! . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 GFS seems alone though with it's deep diving wave into the 4 corners Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: GFS seems alone though with it's deep diving wave into the 4 corners that is bad news really, the precipitation field will be moved further north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Next system to close out the year is also over the Midwest (well north) but diving southeast into colder air this time. It has some snow moving into W NC at 234. Not a good run, but it does have some redeeming qualities. Ridging moves from NE Canada down into Hudson Bay with a PV lobe moving into SE Canada. Just need a southward adjustment to the overall height field, and the waves to dig a bit more....not way off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Only positive I take away is, the Euro didn't have a clue about the last storm until 2 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 2 minutes ago, griteater said: Next system to close out the year is also over the Midwest (well north) but diving southeast into colder air this time. It has some snow moving into W NC at 234. Not a good run, but it does have some redeeming qualities. Ridging moves from NE Canada down into Hudson Bay with a PV lobe moving into SE Canada. Just need a southward adjustment to the overall height field, and the waves to dig a bit more....not way off. think the ensembles will fix it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Major score if that max run verifies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 6z GFS is colder at 174. Looks like a nice storm for the up state up through NC northward: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Next couple of frames it switches everything to ice in the CAD areas of NC. Rain south of there. Snow still in SW Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 By hour 192 ice is confined to the NC/Virginia foothills rain everywhere else. Edit: Winston-Salem westward.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 By hour 192 rain everywhere except SW Virginia foothills. Looks like the low basically ran from Atlanta to off the coast of SE Virginia. This was a better run that 0Z. we still have some more changes upcoming (for good or bad). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Also, as many stated in previous post, the CAD would be stronger if this depiction was to verify. It would force the low to transfer farther south, extending the CAD (in area and time). CAD is the one weather feature that usually looks better for the SE as we move closer in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 14 minutes ago, FallsLake said: Also, as many stated in previous post, the CAD would be stronger if this depiction was to verify. It would force the low to transfer farther south, extending the CAD (in area and time). CAD is the one weather feature that usually looks better for the SE as we move closer in time. And usually with these type of systems most of the precip usually comes on the front end and faster than depicting of the model. Systems like these often have dry slots too. So good chance once the temps warm aloft precip cuts down. Interesting though that's what's happening on this 6z run between hours 192-198. 850 trough swings through and mid levels start drying out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Liking the looks of 6z GEFS. Rain fall potential here in FL. Woo whoo. Very stout CAD. Definitely showing a Miller A/B hybrid low. Trough draped across GOM. Weak low in GOM before blowing up along NC coast. Definitely a good winter storm signal and much needed rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 EPS was disappointing the snow mean drop but the ice storm threat is still there for alot on this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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