SteveVa Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Just now, CaryWx said: I do feel the models beginning to narrow this and somewhere in the SE will score. What happened to the SER from earlier? It definitely seems that beating down the SER as we get closer in time is the pattern this winter. A very good pattern for us farther east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Biggest focus right now is on hour 100 through 120. Watching what models do with the shortwave as it enters into the conus. Doesn't need to get hung up and we should be in business for a nice event. Needs to come down , round the bend so to speak,southern rockies and work in tandem with the blocking hps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 The main reason this thing was better than the 18z GFS was more favorable confluence out in front of it and a weaker vort. This prevented ridging in front of our storm to keep it from cutting as far west. Still some improvements to be made and hundred of different scenarios to come. Suppression is also a concern (i.e. the Canadian), but I'd much rather see things suppressed this far out, rather than walking the fine line of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 2 minutes ago, Disc said: The main reason this thing was better than the 18z GFS was more favorable confluence out in front of it and a weaker vort. This prevented ridging in front of our storm to keep it from cutting as far west. Still some improvements to be made and hundred of different scenarios to come. Suppression is also a concern (i.e. the Canadian), but I'd much rather see things suppressed this far out, rather than walking the fine line of the GFS. Agree. Just from the battle scars alone I'd rather see suppression in LR models now and continue a non-believer until the NAM tells me it's true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Not sure how I feel about this ice deal, but it's been a while fellas. We are way overdue for a tree trunk snapping ice storm. My stomach is in knots now thinking about the trees that envelope my house. I can remember in 2000 the sound of trees snapping and falling onto my roof and one branch actually falling off and hitting my chimney shaking the whole house. Pretty scary night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC2Winston Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Would the suppressed version of this mean a slider, giving NC/VA border-ish snow? Or just a more southerly start for an apps runner/Miller B...and it’s ice for the Piedmont either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 OP gave me all rain due to the CAD basically corroding, hope the ensembles save that from verification Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 7 minutes ago, CARDC79 said: Would the suppressed version of this mean a slider, giving NC/VA border-ish snow? Or just a more southerly start for an apps runner/Miller B...and it’s ice for the Piedmont either way. A more suppressed storm would allow more snow for the NC/VA border region. If it too suppressed, we get little to none. The Miller B scenario allows for more WAA advection aloft to work its way over top of low level cold, which means more ice. Ideally, for you, the 12z GFS run is the best case scenario so far. There will be ice regardless in this type of setup, but depending on where the low tracks will determine how much snow and ice you receive. Further west = more ice. Further south and east = more snow. If too far south = nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 12 Day GEFS Mean: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 2 minutes ago, mrdaddyman said: 12 Day GEFS Mean: got the 20? The average for me more than doubled from 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 5 minutes ago, mrdaddyman said: 12 Day GEFS Mean: Not your average storm signal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 my god... that is a BIG PV with how far south it is, it basically smothers the SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 15 day GEFS mean Jeebus I can't say I've ever seen anything quite like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Yeah, the GFS Ens mean snow jumped up nicely (ice showing as snow on those maps too)...looking at the individual members, there is a big mixture. Plenty of storms that cut, and a number that are suppressed and south and hit us good. Overall, the GFS Ens has been slowly sagging south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Grit, can you post the the individual panel members? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 4 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Grit, can you post the the individual panel members? I know I'm not grit but here you go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 once again I got two MAJOR hits, 2 runs in a row now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Thanks WN. May your chimney always remain limb free. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tarheel17 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 If this hits the SE with snow while I am up in Michigan and all we get is cold and dry here, I will not be a happy camper. Haven't seen more than 1.5 inches of pure snow fall in any one event since January/February 2015 (I have spent 9 weeks of my time in Michigan during winter during that time). I've seen a lifetime worth of sleet in Chapel Hill, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 UKMET has an interesting solution for wave 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 I fully expect a cold rain on both systems!! Like Friday the 13th, fear the cutter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: I fully expect a cold rain on both systems!! Like Friday the 13th, fear the cutter! Be optimistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Just now, Orangeburgwx said: Be optimistic Expect nothing, then there won't be dissapointment! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 5 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: I fully expect a cold rain on both systems!! Like Friday the 13th, fear the cutter! Not with a 1045mb and wedging going apesh** with that look. The GFS has a classic CAD signature and its thermal structure to too stupid to recognize it's showing a classic GA/Carolina Ice Machine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 The last storm I can remember being modeled well at 7-8 days out with a look like the 0z GFS was, Dec 2002! Worst ice storm I ever experienced and that was with even more sleet than expected! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 10 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Expect nothing, then there won't be dissapointment! Hopefully we can trend back towards the SER. I prefer my rains warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 I got to wait until 3:30am for the EPS to update... bad idea drinking coffee at 1:20am but oh well I got a storm to track! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 17 minutes ago, snowlover91 said: UKMET has an interesting solution for wave 1. Why does this look like a slightly more amp'd version of the CMC to me? Is it because I'm a poor man's John Cesserich? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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