snowlover91 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Keep in mind that studies have shown models can be off 10F or more with CAD events, especially in the extended range. What you want to look for right now is the HP placement over or near the Great Lakes to extreme Southern Canada and 1040+ in strength with nosing of the isobars into the region. It will be much colder than the GFS shows if that map verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormLookout Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Area's from Atlanta to the Carolina's need to watch this storm system carefully. It has the potential to bring significant ice accumulations. The GFS don't handle CAD events too well. May have to wait till the time frame gets into the NAM and other short range models to get a better idea on the CAD.Sent from my SM-J327T1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 2 minutes ago, broken024 said: For CLT do we just need that hp to push south more? No. It's fine where it is. CAD temps are underdone. CLT would be frozen solid after this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 minute ago, BIG FROSTY said: Only 9 days away, please get prepared and hook your generators up!! . ready Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 GFS shows CAD eroding too quickly perhaps? Out of here by dawn Saturday morning. LP transfers from TN to coast NC/SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
avalanche Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Is the Triangle area out of the woods? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Just now, avalanche said: Is the Triangle area out of the woods? No not at all. This run would be a significant ice storm for the area. Chances of major ice are going up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 6 minutes ago, burrel2 said: The high position being depicted here is very similar to a huge CAD bust I remember back in college in the Early 2000's. No forecast had ice for the upstate or GA the day before and it wound up being a crippling storm. I wish I could remember the date so I could look it up. The infamous Larry Cosgrove bust? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Here's the clown map, for the weenies. Majority of the NC stuff is ice, obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broken024 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 As shown on gfs any chance of snow in peidmont? Or just sleet/fr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Here you go.... Compare that surface look to the one that the GFS is depicting for next weeks storm, and tell me which one looks more ominous. (This one isn't the bust I was referring to, I think the one I'm thinking of is the Cosgrove bust of 2002?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 minute ago, beanskip said: The infamous Larry Cosgrove bust? That was in situ. I wonder if he means 02. WxBell maps show some 1” total ZR accumulations around me. Ouch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 GFS freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 2 minutes ago, avalanche said: Is the Triangle area out of the woods? No. Sleet-to-ice-to "rain"--that's IF the CAD erodes as quickly as depicted verbatim here. Many doubt that will happen as CAD typically underdone by LR models---especially at this range where many things are suspect still anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 minute ago, burrel2 said: Here you go.... Compare that surface look to the one the GFS is depicting for next week's storm, and tell me which one looks more ominous. Honestly, I don’t think that’s a great match, at least with the strength of the damming. My worst case scenario, with the strength of this high, is 2002. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 I mentioned in the Mid Atlantic forum I have some unease seeing the CMC weak, flat and suppressed. It has had the hot hand lately. I guess time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 minute ago, snowlover91 said: GFS freezing rain. An inch of ice in the Triad! Good gravey miss Daisy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 now we wait for storm #2... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 3 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: Honestly, I don’t think that’s a great match, at least with the strength of the damming. My worst case scenario, with the strength of this high, is 2002. Yea, not a good match at all for the most part... but I'm more referring to how far north the parent high is in Canada. That set up had a weaker high much further north with very marginal mid-level temps and it still produced a doozy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Looks like by Sunday a wound up LP goes up the coast and pulls down a 2nd round of cold air then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 This is one of 100 scenarios. GFS normally gets too much attention Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 anybody got the 20 ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Just now, griteater said: This is one of 100 scenarios. GFS normally gets too much attention Paying attention to any OP run is a foolish errand right now. I'll ride the ensembles til at least Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 In Canadian we trust! Keeps the two pieces separate and suppressed = happy NC and SE VA folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Just now, griteater said: This is one of 100 scenarios. GFS normally gets too much attention Oh I don't believe it 'as depicted' by any means Grit. It does look like more suppression may be in the future models though. Trending like that a bit anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Just now, Orangeburgwx said: anybody got the 20 ensembles? Not out yet. The GFS hasn't finished running yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Canadian looks good and more realistic. GFS is way off on the cad and imo driving a lp up the apps. Anyway fun times ahead. Looking forward to the second winter storm of the season next week and #3 the week after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 man that second round on the 5th cleared out quick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Just now, SteveVa said: In Canadian we trust! Keeps the two pieces separate and suppressed = happy NC and SE VA folks. I do feel the models beginning to narrow this and somewhere in the SE will score. What happened to the SER from earlier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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