SnowNiner Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 9 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Still have the 18z GFS op run plus the enscrambles niner. Yeah, not anymore! Actually the really good runs, you can see 10+ pages overnight. Maybe GFS will kill the SE ridge idea to make that happen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 IMO the GFS cutter solutions are the least likely outcome given the setup and it’s probably amping things a bit much given the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 GFS is hell bent on the western trough and eastern ridge. May the best model win... Usually it’s a blend but we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 5 minutes ago, CARDC79 said: Does anyone have access to and can post an Ensemble plot/graph for the Triad? (Without breaking any rules, of course) This what’s you want? You can put in Winston or whatever. https://weather.us/forecast/4487042-raleigh/ensemble/euro/snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 GFS has us with a low in the 60’s next Saturday and the EPS has a low of 25F. The EPS is fairly tight with too...it’s 5-95% range for the high on Sat is between 30-40F. EPS ain’t what’s it used to be though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 If you haven't looked at he 18z GFS yet, don't. It'll save you some heartache. Just know it has been tossed. How do the ensembles look, Pack? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 The notion that a low moves a high out of the way is erroneous. What usually happens is that the progged upper air pattern allows the high to retreat, and the low follows. Sometimes that is close to the true outcome and sometimes it is not. My expectation is that the upper air pattern will not let the high pressure(s) leave so rapidly, and you will see the low correct south and east and take on the typical Miller B look. I could be wrong, but that’s what I expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: The notion that a low moves a high out of the way is erroneous. What usually happens is that the progged upper air pattern allows the high to retreat, and the low follows. Sometimes that is close to the true outcome and sometimes it is not. My expectation is that the upper air pattern will not let the high pressure(s) leave so rapidly, and you will see the low correct south and east and take on the typical Miller B look. I could be wrong, but that’s what I expect. This, we are all waiting to see what truly happens. Would have to be one amphetamined HP to do that so quickly and let the LP jackknife up like that. imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Well this ones toast! Our local met on CH 4 CJ, just sounded the alarm, and watching it closely! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: Well this ones toast! Our local met on CH 4 CJ, just sounded the alarm, and watching it closely! Lol Please no. Stick a fork in it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 By far the best GEFS run...the snow mean has to be a Mack special. Haven’t seen it yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 18z GEFS when the storm is really going at HR 186 is still just noise with LP and HP placements over the midwest.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Via the Old Farmer’s Almanac... bullseye for New Years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 12 minutes ago, packbacker said: By far the best GEFS run...the snow mean has to be a Mack special. Haven’t seen it yet. 18z? So we toss the op!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 As I can imagine DT saying... GFS is on fooking CRACK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Grabbed this from the MA board. Nice deep CAD signature here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 A freaking 1051mb high and the fact that the GFS manages to get the LP that far north is absurd. The GFS is phasing the jet streams way too quickly to ram this through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Just your avg 1051 high in a great location, with a Northeast snowpack in place!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 What the hell is the GFS smoking for that LP to carve though that high like liquid butter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 13 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: 18z? So we toss the op!? If the hemispheric pattern is this then yes...bottom is the Op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Day 8-12 snow mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 3 minutes ago, packbacker said: Day 8-12 snow mean. give me that 1-2” and call it a winter (would like more but I will take what I can get) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Just now, Orangeburgwx said: give me that 1-2” and call it a winter (would like more but I will take what I can get) I will take 1-2” also...haven’t had that in 3 winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 13 minutes ago, packbacker said: If the hemispheric pattern is this then yes...bottom is the Op. Think I've seen the statement, but does that setup on the GEFS contain similarities with Feb 2014? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 13 minutes ago, packbacker said: If the hemispheric pattern is this then yes...bottom is the Op. I dare you to try and find an analog for that hot garbage on the bottom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 15 minutes ago, packbacker said: Day 8-12 snow mean. This is solid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broken024 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Anyone have the individual gefs snow maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 31 minutes ago, packbacker said: Day 8-12 snow mean. #SNOmg! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 37 minutes ago, packbacker said: Day 8-12 snow mean. Repost this after you take out storm 3. I'm interested what this looks like with only storm 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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