NCSNOW Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 3 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: I feel pretty confident, even this far out, on this not being an all snow event for almost everybody. It’s going to be a game of how long each individual ptype can last. Well said and the big thing is the window of opportunity is there. Table set up good enough to score some fun. Kudos to niner just watch the EPS and make sure we hold the pattern,confluence. I'll take my chances no doubt. Not perfect,but beggars can't be choosers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 minute ago, snowlover91 said: Not worried about the second system though, it is too far out in time and will be influenced in part by what the first wave does. Main takeaway is all 3 models now show at least an ice threat for the CAD regions of NC. The details will become clearer with time but for now it appears a major ice event is possible for favored CAD areas, and possibly more depending on HP strength and position. Pretty much agree. Possible winter storm for us in this pattern is all we can say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Shortwave entering Oregon at 144 doesn't dig and move SE like it did yesterday through Colorado and Texas.Gets hung up in the trough in SW Canada and is more north.Need separation here to get this moving SE. Shortwave looks stronger than yesterday's run and the blocking looks good around Davis strait and Baffin. A stronger high pressure should be there with all the strat warming in N Central Canada over the last 10-14 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 18 minutes ago, packbacker said: Ummm... That one cut all the way to southern Mexico! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Hear the whistle but I can't go. Gonna take her down to Mexico... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Euro Control puts down a narrow band of light snow across most of NC/Extreme N GA/Extreme N AL/Tennessee at 144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Also, the control is only 1 member of a 50 member ensemble suite but it looks like it's primed for a big sleet or zr event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Looking at the CMC and Euro ensemble means, they both look decent next week, not much change on this run. They are both a little colder and a little more suppressed with the storm signal next week compared to the GFS Ens. And both look pretty good going into early Jan....better than the GFS Ens looks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Less for me this time around (00z was 8.2 max with a .9 mean) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 12z JMA has a big cutter like yesterday's GFS runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Seven days straight with highs in the 30's on the Euro Ensemble mean...that's crazy...can't say I've ever seen that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 2 hours ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: So Euro is the only model showing a cutter now? #dethroned It’s too early for dancing in the end zone. I hope you’re right but don’t underestimate the verification scores of the euro. It’s still the king. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 4 minutes ago, LithiaWx said: It’s too early for dancing in the end zone. I hope you’re right but don’t underestimate the verification scores of the euro. It’s still the king. People say that stuff all the time but you cant make up verficiation scores. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 14 minutes ago, LithiaWx said: It’s too early for dancing in the end zone. I hope you’re right but don’t underestimate the verification scores of the euro. It’s still the king. For those living in NC, I would say this one needs to be watched very closely for a significant ice storm in the CAD regions. You have all 3 major models now showing it to some degree and the ensembles have solid support for this as well. With a sprawling 1045+ HP and good confluence over the NE you have a recipe for ice if this verifies as currently modeled. The GFS is probably overdone with the storm and Euro too suppressed, I think the CMC actually strikes a good balance as to what may happen in the end. You're looking at over 1" of ZR in Western NC if that happens... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillT Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 i dont get how the verification scores are arrived at? i see well over 85% claimed for the euro but i KNOW nowhere near 85% of their total runs are accurate in any way........the models clearly are all over the place and no way you can claim they have 85% accuracy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Never did much research into the verification scores for how models stack up against each other but wonder if the sampling is taken more regionally (SE) and specifically Dec-Feb vs all 12 months of the year and globally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 5 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Never did much research into the verification scores for how models stack up against each other but wonder if the sampling is taken more regionally (SE) and specifically Dec-Feb vs all 12 months of the year and globally Yep, it's not taken regionally, and yet people take verification scores as the gospel when those scores are based of 5h over the entire northern hemisphere... it stand to reason one model could be slight better as a whole, but possibly worse across our region of the globe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 A couple of observations. 1. The GFS was the first model to pick up on the cold coming for Christmas whereas the Euro and CMC took longer to figure that out. 2. The new CMC did very well with the early December snow event, the Euro was too suppressed most of the time until about 48 hours out and the GFS had the track a tad too suppressed too. CMC and UK did the best with the low track and strength in the extended. 3. The CMC ensembles have some big hits like the GFS but colder. Interesting to see this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 2 hours ago, griteater said: Looking at the CMC and Euro ensemble means, they both look decent next week, not much change on this run. They are both a little colder and a little more suppressed with the storm signal next week compared to the GFS Ens. And both look pretty good going into early Jan....better than the GFS Ens looks. Thanks Grit, that's the take away and all we need to know at this point. Having those two ensembles in our corner is the best we could ask for right now IMO. On to tomorrow morning! Hopefully I'll wake up to about 5 new pages of discussion of good runs! 42 minutes ago, snowlover91 said: For those living in NC, I would say this one needs to be watched very closely for a significant ice storm in the CAD regions. You have all 3 major models now showing it to some degree and the ensembles have solid support for this as well. With a sprawling 1045+ HP and good confluence over the NE you have a recipe for ice if this verifies as currently modeled. The GFS is probably overdone with the storm and Euro too suppressed, I think the CMC actually strikes a good balance as to what may happen in the end. You're looking at over 1" of ZR in Western NC if that happens... Hopefully the CAD will be strong and deep enough to get most in the sleet zone. I'm not sure what we need to root for to get snow soundings. I guess the confluence is really going to have to be COLD and kicking up top. Miller Bs I really don't have hope for much snow, but whatever sticks to the roads and gets me out of work I'm fine with... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 minute ago, SnowNiner said: Thanks Grit, that's the take away and all we need to know at this point. Having those two ensembles in our corner is the best we could ask for right now IMO. On to tomorrow morning! Hopefully I'll wake up to about 5 new pages of discussion of good runs! Hopefully the CAD will be strong and deep enough to get most in the sleet zone. I'm not sure what we need to root for to get snow soundings. I guess the confluence is really going to have to be COLD and kicking up top. Miller Bs I really don't have hope for much snow, but whatever sticks to the roads and gets me out of work I'm fine with... Ideally we would need either the PV to press a bit further south and suppress the storm more than the GFS shows OR get the wave to dig deeper into the Baja before getting kicked east. Either of those two would work and a few CMC members show this potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 18z cutting.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 6 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: Thanks Grit, that's the take away and all we need to know at this point. Having those two ensembles in our corner is the best we could ask for right now IMO. On to tomorrow morning! Hopefully I'll wake up to about 5 new pages of discussion of good runs! Hopefully the CAD will be strong and deep enough to get most in the sleet zone. I'm not sure what we need to root for to get snow soundings. I guess the confluence is really going to have to be COLD and kicking up top. Miller Bs I really don't have hope for much snow, but whatever sticks to the roads and gets me out of work I'm fine with... Still have the 18z GFS op run plus the enscrambles niner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Just now, ajr said: 18z cutting.. And moving a 1048mb high pressure out of the way. Just so improbable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 MAJOR ice storm setup on 18z gfs. Totals would be scary if it verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC2Winston Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Does anyone have access to and can post an Ensemble plot/graph for the Triad? (Without breaking any rules, of course) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 46 minutes ago, burrel2 said: Yep, it's not taken regionally, and yet people take verification scores as the gospel when those scores are based of 5h over the entire northern hemisphere... it stand to reason one model could be slight better as a whole, but possibly worse across our region of the globe. Yep good post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 7 minutes ago, ajr said: 18z cutting.. I think the issue with the GFS is it wants to really build big ole south east ridge right smack over us. That's gonna make everything cut. That just won't work. Euro and CMC have MUCH less ridging the south east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 WHY/HOW does this relatively weak storm plow through a double barreled 1050+ HP stretched from coast to coast but a cat 4 hurricane won't dare challenge even a 1025 HP? Weather iz stoopid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 18z GFS is hot garbage. System cuts straight at a 1050. Ensembles will save us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.