packbacker Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 1 minute ago, NCSNOW said: The east coast heights fell early in the run tonight. Noticed right off bat first 72 hrs. Not sure why and it has to be a net effect from something upstream , pacific my 1st guess. PAC was much different....doesn't bury bulk of energy in the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 This was the 12z on wednesday... Similar just a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Thanks. Not a lot of alignment in the ensembles but to be expected at this range. Several place the path NW of NC. Far cry from what we've been seeing n the last 24hrs for sure though. Much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 7 minutes ago, packbacker said: The UK is crazy cold day 5-6. Hard to believe. Yea think QC must have run gfs soundings all the way out till end of run, but basically said charlotte stayed below freezing till Friday week after 1.3 qpf all snow. If only. A good snow with several days of cold to follow. Wed have our bellys full and be ok with early spring. Well some would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 I only see 2 to 3 ens looking like today's 12Z run. Swath of snow up through ky to ma,pa. That's encouraging more so than the 7 great hits into NC out of 21. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 1 minute ago, NCSNOW said: I only see 2 to 3 ens looking like today's 12Z run. Swath of snow up through ky to ma,pa. That's encouraging more so than the 7 great hits into NC out of 21. Lol if you roll the ENS forward a couple more days 2 or 3 more members show a pounding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 CMC and GFS 0z tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 12 minutes ago, Jon said: Of course. Euro ensembles have only recently had bad runs, GFS has been all over the place. If we get the Op and more importantly the EPS back on board, it's something to take seriously. Of course not the 00z verbatim, but a more southern solution. Euro was consistent extremely far out on this one, so I wouldn't be surprised if it starts to reel it in once more. As Pack has pointed out the 500mb look is all over the place nevermind the individual players and amplitude of the waves. Long way to go, but all options are on the table. This. I encourage everyone to stay grounded here. As beautiful as this run looks, it is probably a fantasy best case run, and this is a looong way out, more than a week. We have some good pieces, but we'll see all kinds of solutions over the next 8 days, and some will look like the 18z. Look for trends and patterns over the next few days. I do think it's interesting the UKMET has been about the only model showing blocking far enough east consistently and we now have other models showing it at least for one run. For the most part, the trend has been to keep the trough too far west with the SER persistent. This suite run is the outlier, so we'll have to see what happens going forward. Long ways to go everyone, don't get too high or too low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Just now seeing tonight's runs...oh my effing g, never would have thought this. King UKMet I guess. That UKMet run tonight went full tilt and too cold....burying the main wave off the west coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Just now, griteater said: Just now seeing tonight's runs...oh my effing g, never would have thought this. King UKMet I guess. That UKMet run tonight went full tilt and too cold....burying the main wave off the west coast We're still awaiting the King's word this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Euro is alrdy looking diff than it's 12z run with that western energy. Carry it on home guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 1 minute ago, CaryWx said: We're still awaiting the King's word this evening. its already running XD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Out to 96, the 00z Euro is showing lower heights in the east and a weaker trough/wave out west, just like the 00z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 3 minutes ago, griteater said: Just now seeing tonight's runs...oh my effing g, never would have thought this. King UKMet I guess. That UKMet run tonight went full tilt and too cold....burying the main wave off the west coast Yea shocking. Whole table got turned over from 12z. Canadian included Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 1 minute ago, CaryWx said: We're still awaiting the King's word this evening. King is out to 117 and is trending like the other models so far. Colder press into the SE. Pac wave is buried off the Oregon coast kind of like UKMet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 1 minute ago, NCSNOW said: Yea shocking. Whole table got turned over from 12z. Canadian included I should probably stay away since the mojo has turned, but I can't help it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Better cold press on the EURO thru 108hr for sure. Might be another good one incoming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 I see another threat in the second week of Jan on gfs, but first things first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 At 126, 850 0 deg stretches from Kill Devil Hills to Dallas. It's colder for sure. Wave still buried off of Oregon...who knows if/when it kicks out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 At 135, 850 0 deg stretches from Wilmington to Austin, TX. Wave still buried off west coast. Cold and dry so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 1 minute ago, griteater said: At 126, 850 0 deg stretches from Kill Devil Hills to Dallas. It's colder for sure. Wave still buried off of Oregon...who knows if/when it kicks out Very interesting...12z had a SE ridge, this run the confluence is way east and organized tightly...big hit or not, huge trend in the right direction as far as temps. We may end up only worrying about track and moisture as current trends seem to show plenty of cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 This eitheir licks us good or gets squashed like ukie. The cutter is way more east verse 12z on all models and that's what has helped get the cold in here. Much better confluence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 UKMet/Euro almost identical at day 5 now. The key is at hour 72,watch the shortwave coming through E.Arkansas,that runs NE and bombs turning into the 50/50 low and pulls the entire trof SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 00z GFS was cold and dry until basically hr 174-180...that's the hour to watch on the Euro for precip breaking out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 144 - 850 0 deg from Myrtle Beach to Austin, TX. There is some energy coming down off the west Canada coast....looks like it will kick out the main wave, we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 150 - big stacked and wrapped up low over E Canada which has been the key all along. 850 0 deg from Hilton Head to Austin. Sfc high is over Kansas/OK. Not the best position unless it can peel back to the NE or another one replaces it out of central Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Euro just as cold as the Ukie now at day 6,pretty close so I'll take that for tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 168 Sfc high over Kentucky. 850 0 deg from Amelia Island, FL to Dallas. Big closed wave dropped down off Washington coast, and the initial wave off Oregon is getting sheared out. Another sfc high coming down into E Montana. Looks similar to UKMet where it may be too much of a good thing (cold), with storm not kicking out into the cold, we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 1 minute ago, NC_hailstorm said: Euro just as cold as the Ukie now at day 6,pretty close so I'll take that for tonight. Yes, agree. Cold is #1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Sfc hp over ky is exactly where gfs had it at about same hour, then it kind of banana hp after that. Nice agreement there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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