Orangeburgwx Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Jesh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 On 12/21/2017 at 4:57 PM, cbmclean said: I mean this in the nicest possible way, but we are all like Charlie Brown with the football. Tomorrow Lucy will yank the football, and all the models will show nothing (probably). Expand To be fair, the disturbance in question is currently somewhere over the Pacific Ocean and won't be over North America for another five days. So yes, we should expect many things to change between now and then. But the good news is, we have a pretty strong signal for a winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 On 12/21/2017 at 5:03 PM, Poimen said: To be fair, the disturbance in question is currently somewhere over the Pacific Ocean and won't be over North America for another five days. So yes, we should expect many things to change between now and then. But the good news is, we have a pretty strong signal for a winter storm. Expand I love his line. "It hasn't been sampled yet." Classic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 On 12/21/2017 at 5:03 PM, Poimen said: To be fair, the disturbance in question is currently somewhere over the Pacific Ocean and won't be over North America for another five days. So yes, we should expect many things to change between now and then. But the good news is, we have a pretty strong signal for a winter storm. Expand Certainly. I am not criticizing the fun in long-range model oogling. More than anything I am trying to remind myself that too much focus for individual model runs will lead to insanity. I am just a lurker here mostly, so I am wondering why some seem to think this storm signal is different from any of the other long-range fantasy snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 On 12/21/2017 at 4:41 PM, Orangeburgwx said: South Carolina getting a screw job... I think those temps are going to be colderI have a feeling this will trend colder for all areas. Just my gut. Nothing scientific.Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 On 12/21/2017 at 4:51 PM, GreensboroWx said: This one has my interest now. I'm really worried(exited) about the 1050+ high...that's some serious high pressure and will funnel the cold, dry air very far south. Hopefully, for my area it will be cold enough for sleet/snow and not FRZRN. Expand My biggest worry too. With such a strong high, though, it would stand to reason those mixing lines would continue to be pushed further and further south. I wouldnt be shocked to see snow to sleet to freezing rain back to snow, like most storms here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 On 12/21/2017 at 5:00 PM, Orangeburgwx said: Jesh...Yeah. MA forum is doing cartwheels right now.Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 On 12/21/2017 at 5:19 PM, tramadoc said: Yeah. MA forum is doing cartwheels right now. Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Expand Bullseye 7 days out. What could go wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 On 12/21/2017 at 5:22 PM, WarmNose said: Bullseye 7 days out. What could go wrong?Hahahahaha They would be sick if the core of the snow shifted south and east and coated the SE and missed them except for a light dustingSent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 On 12/21/2017 at 5:23 PM, tramadoc said: Hahahahaha They would be sick if the core of the snow shifted south and east and coated the SE and missed them except for a light dusting Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk That would be hilarious and epic, all wrapped into one! . Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 There doesnt seem to be much ensemble support for this run, fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 On 12/21/2017 at 5:19 PM, tramadoc said: Yeah. MA forum is doing cartwheels right now. Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Expand Those cartwheels will turn to tears in a few days, when Carolinas get crushed and they get a cloud storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 On 12/21/2017 at 5:29 PM, Queencitywx said: There doesnt seem to be much ensemble support for this run, fwiw. Expand That sucks! Get days and days of stupid looking cutter runs and they get no ensemble support, now we get a good wintry run , it also has no support! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 On 12/21/2017 at 4:51 PM, GreensboroWx said: This one has my interest now. I'm really worried(exited) about the 1050+ high...that's some serious high pressure and will funnel the cold, dry air very far south. Hopefully, for my area it will be cold enough for sleet/snow and not FRZRN. Expand Always good to see you post! Involved with the big ones with good synopsis and detailed posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 On 12/21/2017 at 5:29 PM, Queencitywx said: There doesnt seem to be much ensemble support for this run, fwiw. Expand Ensembles have been pretty good the last couple of days. They're allowed a swing and a miss from time to time..right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 So when does 'Dr NO'...errr...the 12z Euro come out? ~1:30pm ET?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 On 12/21/2017 at 5:41 PM, CaryWx said: So when does 'Dr NO'...errr...the 12z Euro come out? ~1:30pm ET?? Expand Starts running about 1245 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 On 12/21/2017 at 5:44 PM, Cary_Snow95 said: Starts running about 1245 Expand Aka right now lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY1894 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 The upcoming event is happening with similar timing as the snowstorm earlier this month, poleward building ridge in the north pacific causing AO and even the NAO domains to become favorable. Just comes down to exact timing of all of these moving parts. But I feel its safe to say there will be a big storm just have to hope it's not a big ZR storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 On 12/21/2017 at 5:29 PM, Queencitywx said: There doesnt seem to be much ensemble support for this run, fwiw. Expand same for the 12z ukmet...it is more like the canadian through 144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Didn't look at the GEFS members but the 5h changes were much better then the past couple of runs. Stronger block over HB, 50-50 better, deeper conus trough. Mean looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Clock is ticking... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 On 12/21/2017 at 6:00 PM, packbacker said: Didn't look at the GEFS members but the 5h changes were much better then the past couple of runs. Stronger block over HB, 50-50 better, deeper conus trough. Mean looks good. Expand Baffin block is a good sign. You'll see that feature in most big events for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 The GFS took a step on the right direction. If we are indeed dealing with a 1050ish SHP building down, damming will be tremendous. There was significant confluence over the NE which in turn have a secondary nose of SHP somewhere over the NE or NE Canada. In turn, further shifts or corrections southward would likely be in order, provided this idea is true in the first place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Euro gonna bring the funk, in a good way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 I'm still locked on ensembles at this point. Until we see come consistency in the operationals, it doesn't seem like anything they're showing is legit, good or bad. Perhaps by this weekend they'll sniff it out. If I had to guess, I'd still think we're probably in for a 2/14 redux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Euro out to 150...not like the GFS...weak wave in Oregon. It looks like it's going to dive southeast and be on the weaker, suppressed side....we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 On 12/21/2017 at 6:31 PM, griteater said: Euro out to 150...not like the GFS...weak wave in Oregon. It looks like it's going to dive southeast and be on the weaker, suppressed side....we'll see Expand Anything with the day 6 low off the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 That 144hr map looks like a giant CAD up against the Rockies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Crud..Euro a big cutter. Good night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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