Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Just now, burrel2 said: GFS at 144hr, (look at the pacific northwest/rockies). Like I said, the ukmet says what storm. GFS doing something funky cutting it up into a high. CMC doesn't pop the storm till after 144 so if the UK is similar to the CMC you wouldn't see a storm yet. Maybe by 12Z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Textbook 1040 high placement but we rain in the upstate? Toss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: GFS doing something funky cutting it up into a high. CMC doesn't pop the storm till after 144 so if the UK is similar to the CMC you wouldn't see a storm yet. Maybe by 12Z tomorrow. Even the CMC has a slight trough starting to consolidate out west at 144hr... IMO, if extrapolating out, the ukmet,(if it has any storm at all in the 8/9 day timeframe), would be weak/suppressed, putting the CMC as the middle ground between the ukmet and the GFS. (thus meaning the GFS is most likely out to lunch). We'll see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shahroz98 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 CMC brings the storm in way earlier than the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 5 minutes ago, burrel2 said: GFS at 144hr, (look at the pacific northwest/rockies). Like I said, the ukmet says what storm. 12z Euro and the new 00z CMC both have an initial weak west to east moving system, then later the deep diving wave that spawns the Bigger SE low. 00z UKMet looks kind of similar (looks weak at 144)...GFS has the stronger initial system that cuts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: 12z Euro and the new 00z CMC both have an initial weak west to east moving system, then later the deep diving wave that spawns the Bigger SE low. 00z UKMet looks kind of similar (looks weak at 144)...GFS has the stronger initial system that cuts Yep, let's hope the GFS is being goofy here, because we aren't scoring in that set up, but plenty of room for some wintry precip based off the Euro/CMC/Ukmet look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 I'm scared to even look at Ice clown maps for the CAD area. Might be celebrating the new year old timey style. In the dark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 A few minor differences between GFS and CMC at 210 Edit: not sure why it uploaded the same picture twice by you get the jist Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Glad I'll not be in times Square for new years. frost bite galore! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Of course GFS brings FANTASY Snow after HR 300 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 The GFS gets too much respect IMO. With the Euro not what it used to be, you can throw all the op and ensemble runs in a bucket and call it even as far as I'm concerned. Heck, look at how well the Navgem did last storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shahroz98 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Is it just me, or does it feel like the chances of an actual winter storm happening are starting to lessen ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 3 minutes ago, griteater said: The GFS gets too much respect IMO. With the Euro not what it used to be, you can throw all the op and ensemble runs in a bucket and call it even as far as I'm concerned. Heck, look at how well the Navgem did last storm Is it really a matter of opinion, though? Don't they keep track of model verification scores? What does the data say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 7 minutes ago, shahroz98 said: Is it just me, or does it feel like the chances of an actual winter storm happening are starting to lessen ? Lots of storm signals but most big hits feature unattainable suppression due to unrealistic high pressures IMO i want to be wrong though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 14 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Is it really a matter of opinion, though? Don't they keep track of model verification scores? What does the data say? Euro normally scores best, but the difference isn't huge and those scores don't necessarily tell the full story as it relates to our winter scenarios. The Euro is 0-5 in our model verification thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Can't believe we're losing this time period! . Wait, the 3-4th Jan storm will save us! So ready for the damn torch to start in mid Jan and carry us through April! Looking forward to my Bermuda lawn greening up in Feb again! The more things change, the more they stay the same! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 4 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Can't believe we're losing this time period! . Wait, the 3-4th Jan storm will save us! So ready for the damn torch to start in mid Jan and carry us through April! Looking forward to my Bermuda lawn greening up in Feb again! The more things change, the more they stay the same! Instead of tracking the weather I think I am just going to start tracking the emotions of the posters here. It goes through troughs and ridges more severe than any we ever see. The last few days has been a very positive time. I sense that we have hit the peak and are now started downhill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 DT explains the potential event for the 30th. Skip to 11:43 if you want to hear about that, but I suggest watching the whole thing. Very good video, and I especially like it since he explains why the GFS is not correct with this potential event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 00z GEFS is quite icy with multiple events, one after another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, snowlover91 said: 00z GEFS is quite icy with multiple events, one after another. Serious question, how can the op and ensembles be that different? It's the 2nd or 3rd run in a row of them being polar opposites of each other! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 CMC freezing rain totals are scary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: Serious question, how can the op and ensembles be that different? It's the 2nd or 3rd run in a row of them being polar opposites of each other! At this range the op run is prone to wild swings that are noticeable since it’s just one model whereas the ensembles better depict the possible scenarios we could see, several members cut it like the op run while several look more like the cmc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Night and day difference between Euro and GFS. Euro with another nice run. Big sfc high in ideal location in western Great Lakes Dec29 with weak wave digging into the southern plains. Precip stays suppressed across the deep south. More ridging working down into NE Canada this run, suppressing the flow over the eastern U.S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, griteater said: Night and day difference between Euro and GFS. Euro with another nice run. Big sfc high in ideal location in western Great Lakes Dec29 with weak wave digging into the southern plains. Precip stays suppressed across the deep south. More ridging working down into NE Canada this run, suppressing the flow over the eastern U.S. I'll take this look 8 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Light snow eventually breaks out late on Dec29 in parts of NC/SC and N GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 3 minutes ago, JoshM said: I'll take this look 8 days out That's a winning look right there! Ice down to Savannah, let the NW trend begin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: Swing and a miss for Packbacker and Cold Rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Euro is complete polar opposite of the GFS, which is good. At least the signal of a storm is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 RAH's long range discussion. Nothing to really note, but the first part where they state that the NAM is the best model during CAD setups. We need to remember this for the future. .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 250 AM Thursday... Saturday: A difficult forecast largely dependent on the erosion of a hybrid cold air damming (CAD) regime prior to the arrival of a coldfront on Saturday night. As noted in the Thursday discussion above, a surface high pressure center over eastern Quebec establishes a modest CAD episode late Thursday and Friday. After weakening during the day Friday, the CAD becomes reestablished Friday night. But by daybreak Saturday, just about all of NWP guidance suggests a southwesterly surface flow should be ongoing and the CAD erosionprocess, underway. Following the NAM is often the best course of action in these setups given its superior CAD track record, which would indicate a more stubborn wedge that is slower to erode, especially across the eastern Piedmont where the NAM expects a little more precipitation to fall on Friday locking in the wedge. Given this scenario, will undercut temperature guidance a few degrees and increased forecast cloud cover. Forecast highs on Saturday will range from the lower 60s in the Triad to the mid 60s in the Triangle to around 70 in the Southeast. If the precipitation doesn`t occur and the wedge doesn`t hold, highs could easily be 5 or more degrees warmer than forecast. If the wedge does hold, highs could be 5 degrees cooler than forecast. Outside of a rogue shower in the elevated warm advection ahead of the front, dry conditions are expected on Saturday morning and early afternoon. NWP guidance is in better agreement that the cold frontwill be a little slower than previous runs and reach the higher terrain of the southern Appalachians during the early afternoon on Saturday and then move into central NC Saturday evening and ease southeast reaching the coastal region or Coastal Plain by daybreak on Christmas eve. Guidance has also trended weaker with the forcing for ascent, so expect diminished coverage and QPF amounts than previously expected. Will adjust PoPs downward and delay the eastern progression on Saturday afternoon with high chance PoPs for Saturday night. Lows should range in the mid 40s in the Triad to the mid 50s across the southeast. Christmas Eve: The cold front stalls across the coastal region on Sunday as a broad eastern North American upper-level trough develops and the upper flow becomes aligned parallel to the front. The placement of the cold front will determine how much and where precipitation will fall. The more progressive GFS eases the fronteastward during the day leaving most of central NC dry and under a veil of high clouds while the EC is slower and further west, generating area of rain as far west as U.S 1 Sunday and Sunday evening until another short wave trough provides a kick to push thefront offshore toward Monday morning. Will follow a compromise but adjust all PoPs downward on Sunday and focus precipitation chances across the east. Highs will range in the lower 50s across the Triad to the lower 60s across the Southeast. Christmas Day through Wednesday: A much quieter period with belownormal temperatures expected. The upper trough axis centered across the eastern Great Lakes and Mid Atlantic on Monday morning broadens and shifts east during the period resulting in a northwest flowaloft on Monday that becomes more westerly toward mid week. The result will be dry weather with slightly below normal temperatures on Monday that cool a bit more for Tuesday and Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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