WarmNose Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Which is good, because less time for the cold to erode or leave, assuming it's even below normal by then!? Cold not looking as impressive! Where's my 1060 highs!? Siberia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 59 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Meh ... I've seen better Seen better? LMAO dude you dont get that much better at a 9-10 day lead. That is somewhat unprecedented. Both GEFS, Euro OP and EPS support it big time. You start getting into 3'' means that far out it is a doozy, even if it isnt for your area particularly. Your my boy mackerel but cmon!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 15 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Seen better? LMAO dude you dont get that much better at a 9-10 day lead. That is somewhat unprecedented. Both GEFS, Euro OP and EPS support it big time. You start getting into 3'' means that far out it is a doozy, even if it isnt for your area particularly. Your my boy mackerel but cmon!! It's all relative I guess! If I'm on the NC/VA border and had a 2-4" mean, id be giddy too. Sitting at the 1/2 mean, not quite as excited, with overall cold looking less severe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 If TWC has snow at the end of your 10 day forecast, book it as rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 The Feb/14 comparison is close....day 9 modeled AO block looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 ^ That's a good look. Pattern supports strong high pressure generation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 49 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: TWC has some snow on my local forecast for the 1-3rd! Winning! But how you get snow at 50 degrees , is beyond me I got sleet at 47 and then a couple days later got about 5" of rain at 34...not a sleet pellet to be found until the very end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Energy crashes into Washington day 7,rides down through the Rockies to the gulf.Nice storm in the deep south with a trapped PV south of Hudson Bay with blocking moving in close to the Davis strait by day8/9.That Euro run was one of the best I've seen in a while just by looking at 500mb heights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Just now, Cold Rain said: ^ That's a good look. Pattern supports strong high pressure generation. If we can get that same EPS look inside day 5 that would be something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 13 minutes ago, packbacker said: The Feb/14 comparison is close....day 9 modeled AO block looks good. Yep, this seems eerily familiar to that storm. -EPO driven with little blocking, Miller A/B Hybrid with strong CAD....a big sleet fest too though along with the snow. If I remember correctly most of the snow came from a nice deformation band the next morning. 11 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: ^ That's a good look. Pattern supports strong high pressure generation. 2014 was cold. I think it was in the mid to upper 20s CAD throughout the event, but we still sleeted IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 4 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: Yep, this seems eerily familiar to that storm. -EPO driven with little blocking, Miller A/B Hybrid with strong CAD....a big sleet fest too though along with the snow. If I remember correctly most of the snow came from a nice deformation band the next morning. 2014 was cold. I think it was in the mid to upper 20s CAD throughout the event, but we still sleeted IIRC. It was the ULL, and most of us had sleet because the snow growth region took a half day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 21 minutes ago, JoshM said: It was the ULL, and most of us had sleet because the snow growth region took a half day. Yup. I was in fort mill at the time. If I remember correctly, 11” over two day with the majority on the first morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 18z GFS is a big cutter. Biggest thing that stands out to me is that the initial height suppression and associated cold temperatures into the southeast have weakend significantly. Euro gets the deep diver later in the run, but I'm a skeptic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, griteater said: 18z GFS is a big cutter. Biggest thing that stands out to me is that the initial height suppression and associated cold temperatures into the southeast have weakend significantly. Euro gets the deep diver later in the run, but I'm a skeptic What you thinking Grit, can we toss this as a garbage run or expect more like this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 6 minutes ago, griteater said: 18z GFS is a big cutter. Biggest thing that stands out to me is that the initial height suppression and associated cold temperatures into the southeast have weakend significantly. Euro gets the deep diver later in the run, but I'm a skeptic Great! That was fun! Next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 I’m guessing this has something to do with why the 18z treats the setup as a cutter into HP in the north. Honestly just looks like a random number generator, really.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 That run was a total bust, hoping the ensembles are better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 I would forget about individual runs and look at the trends with the ensembles. If the trends are to weaken highs and shift the height fields north as we close in, that is a BIG concern. If not, we’re good, as long as our expectations are reasonable, ie not expecting 1070 mb highs in Kansas and flash freezing in the Everglades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 the 18Z GEFS is about 10-15 degrees colder in all areas than the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 17 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: the 18Z GEFS is about 10-15 degrees colder in all areas than the GFS All comes down to holding confluence over the NE. That'll hold in the HP and force the southern wave to dig southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 4 minutes ago, Wow said: All comes down to holding confluence over the NE. That'll hold in the HP and force the southern wave to dig southeast. The wgpi index has been negative on this threat window recently (wow and grit posting index) that's another sign that this timeframe is not quite there yet. Need that riging over greenland to stay stronger, need the pv to keep getting pushed southeast. If it goes the other way we get a cutter and warmer temps. Today's trends actually were in the wrong direction so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 We need the cutter to cut, get in the 50/50 position, then it's game on for the 3/4th timeframe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 There are a lot of misinformed posts I’ve seen throughout the day on here, “it’s on to the next one” “next” “my backyard only gets 1” on the clown maps”. Folks, cmon! I haven’t been able to look at the OP 18z gfs run but the 12z was laughable. The low literally pile drives into a 1046 HP like it’s nothing. That is just straight silly. If it were 2-3 day lead ahead of the storm, the cad would be incredible, as the HP was in good condition up around Montreal to funnel some serious cold. It is a great prospect when both the GEFS, EURO OP and its EPS are in general agreeance with one another. Everyone relax and watch how that HP does it’s work down the line, so long as confluence behaves, etc.. we got this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 18z GEFS tells me to hold off on the pre-emergent order for a few more days . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 18z GEFS members are just loaded with CAD and winter storms from 168 hours out to 384.... Hard to think we won't score at some point over the next few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 29 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: Need that ridging over greenland to stay stronger, need the pv to keep getting pushed southeast. If it goes the other way we get a cutter and warmer temps. Today's trends actually were in the wrong direction so far. You stated it better than I did niner. The gfs and euro ensembles have actually been trending colder, but there was a pull back today. Not major, but we aren't in the land were you can afford pullbacks. Looking at the 18z GFS Ens members, my rough count: 1st storm after Dec 25 front: 13 mostly rainy, 5 wintry 2nd storm after Dec 25 front: 11 mostly rainy, 4 wintry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 8 minutes ago, packbacker said: 18z GEFS tells me to hold off on the pre-emergent order for a few more days . Talk dirty to me Pack! Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 6 minutes ago, griteater said: You stated it better than I did niner. The gfs and euro ensembles have actually been trending colder, but there was a pull back today. Not major, but we aren't in the land were you can afford pullbacks. Looking at the 18z GFS Ens members, my rough count: 1st storm after Dec 25 front: 13 mostly rainy, 5 wintry 2nd storm after Dec 25 front: 11 mostly rainy, 4 wintry 18z GFS = dumpster fire/ blip Its all about the Canadian and 0z GFS! Suck in that new data! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 20 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Talk dirty to me Pack! Wow! That is a nice mean....come on, I'm starting to get reeled in on this. I'm a hopeless sucker. Somebody talk some sense into me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 minute ago, SnowNiner said: That is a nice mean....come on, I'm starting to get reeled in on this. I'm a hopeless sucker. Somebody talk some sense into me! There is so much potential to this you can’t help but get suckered in. Need a lot to happen with the PV and subsequent confluence to keep the HP parked but with that said amazing similarities and agreement right now with the GEFS and EPS this far in advance. Great storm signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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