mrdaddyman Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 1 minute ago, Poimen said: Looks like a SE winter storm on day 10. If your I85 or West, as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 1 minute ago, mrdaddyman said: If your I85 or West. Eh, don't sweat the details just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Will worry about temps and track later. It usually works out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Am I the only who feels like we are stuck on Day 10 storm ? Seems like 5 days ago people were talking about a Day 10 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 1 minute ago, packbacker said: Will worry about temps and track later. It usually works out... the way all these models are flipping around like fish out of water, details in even the most broadest sense are pretty meaningless. It seems there has been more inconsistency than usual beyond just a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 3 minutes ago, mrdaddyman said: If your I85 or West, as usual. Time for somebody to move! Need Grit to verify this good run!? 10 day storm on Euro, is equivalent to a 15 day GFS storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 10 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Expecting that SE Canadian high to lift quickly NE and that low to shoot up west of the Apps on the next frame. Let's see if I'm right. So not quite. The high is still up there, but it's weaker. The Low jumps from where it is on Pack's map above to off Cape Hatteras. Probably Miller Bish. If this were to verify (surface feature-wise) like those maps show, it would probably be a major ice storm for a lot of folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Just now, Cold Rain said: So not quite. The high is still up there, but it's weaker. The Low jumps from where it is on Pack's map above to off Cape Hatteras. Probably Miller Bish. Will take it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thor Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 1 minute ago, packbacker said: Will take it... The most realistic thing about that map is Wake County being the battleground for ice/snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Just now, ajr said: The most realistic thing about that map is Wake County being the battleground for ice/snow. Remember to shift this about 50 - 100 miles NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 1 minute ago, mrdaddyman said: Remember to shift this about 50 - 100 miles NW. That conflicts with "CADs trend stronger!". Fight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 1 minute ago, mrdaddyman said: Remember to shift this about 50 - 100 miles NW. Really. Hate to be a downer as well but I suspect that rain/mix line to move NW to where the current snow/mix line is on that map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: That conflicts with "CADs trend stronger!". Fight! What's the newest CMC show? It rocks at CAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 wrt trough orientation to my eyes the euro at 5h looks more like the gefs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 ColdRains Miller b with banana high...slam dunk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Just now, CaryWx said: Really. Hate to be a downer as well but I suspect that rain/mix line to move NW to where the current snow/mix line is on that map. Doesn't have to, was a lot farther N and W on previous runs, so it's trended SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: That conflicts with "CADs trend stronger!". Fight! True CR....if the CAD is avecting and not eroding to the WAA from the LP transition to the coast. That low has to form off Charleston/MB not off Hatteras Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 10 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: Am I the only who feels like we are stuck on Day 10 storm ? Seems like 5 days ago people were talking about a Day 10 storm. Nah, that was folks hoping for a holiday miracle on the 25th. That was never more than a cold front. Pyrite, fools gold, hoodwinked, runamuk, etc. We're currently chasing a pattern....28th through January 3rdish? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 If we go miller B the re-formation coastal 'location' is critical here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, CaryWx said: If we go miller B the re-formation coastal 'location' is critical here If there's not an A after Miller, we're all screwed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 IF the upper pattern supports that big banana high remaining locked nearly in place throughout the storm, then the system won't cut. It'll transfer off the lower SE coast, and this will be the widespread winter storm (snow, sleet, ZR) that we've been tracking. If things shift upstairs and it turns out to be that the high is weaker and also shooting off to the NE, then we will get a cutter, or a transfer farther north, resulting in snow, sleet, ZR to rain to dry slot to backside drizzle or flurries for much of the traditional CAD areas and mostly rain and dry slot farther east toward my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Man, The 12 GFS ensembles are absolutely loaded with winter storms from 168 to 240 hours. I don't think i've ever seen that many major hits this far out before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Going to be ticked if RDU’s snow mean isn’t atleast 3” through day 12 on the EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 I count 11 of 20 members on the cod weather page with major hits for NC piedmont between 168 and 240's.... and an additional 6 or 7 just miss to the north or south in that timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 GEPS has several members with low locations like the Euro day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, packbacker said: GEPS has several members with low locations like the Euro day 10. That's the axis of precipitation I'd like to see on the ensembles, rather than cutting up west toward mississippi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 20 minutes ago, ajr said: The most realistic thing about that map is Wake County being the battleground for ice/snow. Start the thread. We can't miss at this juncture. I can afford a 7 mile NW shift and still get my backend freezing drizzle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Of course we get a storm, now that this timeframe is not as cold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 If anyone wants to check out the CMC ensembles, here's a handy link that shows p-type. The 12z run from today isn't live yet but the 00z from last night had some fun members... http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/ensemble-forecasting.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=cmc_geps&stn=PT&stn_type=postagestamp&display=img&hh=240 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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