mackerel_sky Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 The 12z GFS is off to a semi interesting look. The front sweeps off the coast on Christmas Eve, then a little wave or somethings forms down in S GA, likely nothing, but it almost makes it back to CAE!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Is it just me or does the post Xmas conus cold look not so cold....LOL. Did we just fall for it again. That's not really a look for a SE winter storm on Dec 29/30th. Maybe early Jan... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 4 minutes ago, packbacker said: Is it just me or does the post Xmas conus cold look not so cold....LOL. Did we just fall for it again. That's not really a look for a SE winter storm on Dec 29/30th. Maybe early Jan... No, it's the shot behind that one, that's gonna be the ticket! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 That's Tuesday. Let's see Friday. If that is the look for Fri-Sun it has definitely backed off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Just now, mackerel_sky said: No, it's the shot behind that one, that's gonna be the ticket! LOL...you can't help but laugh. It might be colder on Friday after low tracks to our north. Atleast we can keep up the frisbee golf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 1 minute ago, packbacker said: LOL...you can't help but laugh. It might be colder on Friday after low tracks to our north. Atleast we can keep up the frisbee golf. It'll make its own cold air! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Man that's some front! Somebody tell me the CMC still has the 1060 high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Just now, mackerel_sky said: It'll make its own cold air! It could be worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 1 minute ago, packbacker said: It could be worse. Hour 240? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, packbacker said: It could be worse. I'm only out to the 27th, but could be setting up for a big wedgy! Grit said we needed faster ejection, we got it! Just into not so cold air! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Just now, mackerel_sky said: I'm only out to the 27th, but could be setting up for a big wedgy! Grit said we needed faster ejection, we got it! Just into not so cold air! It's a really cold and snowy run...in Chicago up into Canada. It's our typical SE winter storm....cool to warm rain to seasonal temps after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 1 minute ago, packbacker said: It's a really cold and snowy run...in Chicago up into Canada. It's our typical SE winter storm....cool to warm rain to seasonal temps after. We were due for a bad run. We haven't had one since 6z. The Euro still looks good and the GFS has been bouncing around a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, packbacker said: It's a really cold and snowy run...in Chicago up into Canada. It's our typical SE winter storm....cool to warm rain to seasonal temps after. No worries , GEFS will save us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Poor GFS. Slams a low right up into a strong HP. One day it will learn. One day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: We were due for a bad run. We haven't had one since 6z. The Euro still looks good and the GFS has been bouncing around a lot. Like bouncy corn!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Here comes the cold...we just have to wait a few more days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 CMC is even better....amped cutter. Get's cold after...we are good still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 I'll vote for Hillary/Bernie/Ole Joe in 2020 if that LP cuts through a high of that strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 The 12Z GFS definitely scours out some of the cold in the ohio valley region and south. Looks like a low that tracks through there.. I'm waiting to see the GEFS. The GFS has been all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Even in the LR it grinds my gears that a pair of 1050+ HP's to the north can't keep this thing from cutting #RatesWillOvercome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Jan 2nd still looks good on the GFS. First week of Jan is can’t miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 our southern slider hybrid northern phaser is back fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, packbacker said: Jan 2nd still looks good on the GFS. First week of Jan is can’t miss. It does, but it always seems our storms are later rather than earlier.... keeps getting pushed back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Alchemist Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 6 minutes ago, WarmNose said: Even in the LR it grinds my gears that a pair of 1050+ HP's to the north can't keep this thing from cutting #RatesWillOvercome Even as a quiet lurker I know "that ain't right!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Reminds me of the last few winters where big snowstorms show up in the D10-15 range, but keeps getting delayed and delayed so it's sort of hard to take the GFS long range seriously. Sure there are "big players" on the field, but you don't win a big game if your big players never play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 4 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: It does, but it always seems our storms are later rather than earlier.... keeps getting pushed back. I notice that as well... First was Christmas (that’s out) then it was the 29th/30th (looking less and less likely) now it is Jan. 2nd timeframe lets all face it... this is looking more and more like a bust unless the ensembles save us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 4 minutes ago, LovingGulfLows said: Reminds me of the last few winters where big snowstorms show up in the D10-15 range, but keeps getting delayed and delayed so it's sort of hard to take the GFS long range seriously. Sure there are "big players" on the field, but you don't win a big game if your big players never play. I don't see how anybody can take the operational GFS with any seriousness beyond a few days, with that said, you might as well just use the NAM and RGEM. The GFS went from serious cold coming in early next week to seasonal, and it will change ten more times by Christmas Day. Like others have said, how is a storm going to blast right through a high of that magnitude. Either the high isn't as strong as modeled, or the storm is pushed south. My money is on the storm track being correct and we are looking at highs in the mid 50s next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 What a change on the ensembles. Been Charlie Browned... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Hanging on.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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