Cold Rain Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 5 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: I wish... If only... That would make my winter. Bring on Mac's pre-emergent and start getting ready for spring after that occurred. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 It doesn't hold though, lifts off for a nice cold push, Pacific ridge rebuilds. The pattern defaults to La Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: Shift that low 150-200 miles east and we're in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: BL temps are borderline, but when are they not!? Would be good if you were going to score either rain or snow, wouldn't have to worry about sleet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Lol at you too not close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: It doesn't hold though, lifts off for a nice cold push then Pacific ridge rebuilds. The pattern defaults to La Nina. All I've been hearing since summer was La Niña, La Niña, La Niña. It hasn't acted like it at all yet! So enjoy all the non Niña weather we are having! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 5 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: As much as I wou”d love that, a 987mb low is a tad unrealistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Indeed! La Nina has had weak effect since the Hurricane season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 4 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: BL temps are borderline, but when are they not!? Would be good if you were going to score either rain or snow, wouldn't have to worry about sleet! No way it snows in Raleigh with that low sitting over the sounds. But the map looks pretty! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 2 hours ago, Cold Rain said: I completely agree. Been on that train for a couple of weeks. This feels like one of the best windows for a widespread southeast winter storm that we’ve had in a couple of winters. It's nice to have you on the optimistic train this time CR. The last couple of years even with legit threats, you've seemed pretty skeptical. For your back yard though, that skepticism has proved accurate! Now that you're on board, I definitely need to pay attention! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 5 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: It's nice to have you on the optimistic train this time CR. The last couple of years even with legit threats, you've seemed pretty skeptical. For your back yard though, that skepticism has proved accurate! Now that you're on board, I definitely need to pay attention! Yeah man, I like the development of snow cover to the north, the cold air at least nearby, the depiction of decent high pressure zones, and the depiction of various storm systems nearby. What more can we realistically ask for these days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 10 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: It doesn't hold though, lifts off for a nice cold push, Pacific ridge rebuilds. The pattern defaults to La Nina. Yep...my guess is it won't hold, the GEFS has backed off this the past couple of runs. Models have been to block happy at this range, to bad because it's close to being something good. For your area this looks really good, even with a weaker block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Christmas Eve/Day. So, you wanna be a weather forecaster? The GFS is quicker and further south with this shortwave while the EC is slower and further north. The uncertainty in the frontal position is easily highlighted by the EC ensemble statistical guidance for high temperatures at RDU on Sunday which have a standard deviation of 7. The warmest ensemble member has a high of 74, the coolest 47, with a mean of 61 and the operational giving a high of 59. Yikes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 4 minutes ago, Solak said: Christmas Eve/Day. So, you wanna be a weather forecaster? The GFS is quicker and further south with this shortwave while the EC is slower and further north. The uncertainty in the frontal position is easily highlighted by the EC ensemble statistical guidance for high temperatures at RDU on Sunday which have a standard deviation of 7. The warmest ensemble member has a high of 74, the coolest 47, with a mean of 61 and the operational giving a high of 59. Yikes! that is a pretty big difference considering that is just 5 days away, normally being that close there is a so-so agreement between the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 3 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: that is a pretty big difference considering that is just 5 days away, normally being that close there is a so-so agreement between the models. The Euro is starting to back down to the GFS with the faster frontal passage. Lets hope that continues on the 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 12 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Yeah man, I like the development of snow cover to the north, the cold air at least nearby, the depiction of decent high pressure zones, and the depiction of various storm systems nearby. What more can we realistically ask for these days? Yep, generally looks good. I'd love though to have some legit blocking or an active STJ to keep the storms suppressed. My concern is the real possibility of cutters and at best Miller Bs. Even in fantasy that's all we're seeing so far. I can see us striking out on cutters and Miller Bs not being cold enough if our CAD is not entrenched. Dunno. I'm just going to wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 7 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: Yep, generally looks good. I'd love though to have some legit blocking or an active STJ to keep the storms suppressed. My concern is the real possibility of cutters and at best Miller Bs. Even in fantasy that's all we're seeing so far. I can see us striking out on cutters and Miller Bs not being cold enough if our CAD is not entrenched. Dunno. I'm just going to wait and see. Yeah, I think it’s def a Miller B pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Yeah, I think it’s def a Miller B pattern. But I think DT said the polar vortex is going to be around Chicago!? That's gotta make for a more southern track! Banana high FTW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 1 hour ago, shahroz98 said: How do you look at the GEFS ensemble members like that ? Do you go through the runs one by one ? IMO the free College of Dupage interface is better at viewing the GFS Ens members than the WxBell one http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ > GEFS tab (at top) > Precipitation Products (on left) > Ensemble Prec Type There were a good bit more rainy cutters on the 06z members compared to 00z 1 hour ago, packbacker said: CPC day 8 analog from the 0z GFS is like who's who in SE snow storms. The problem here is that the actual GFS runs don't have the Greenland ridging like the analog matches do. The analog composite there is a better pattern than on the model runs. 46 minutes ago, packbacker said: Been a long time since we had a winter storm with the PV shifted over into Newf/Lab with a strong NPac ridge nosing into Greenland. Thats 2 of the 3 biggest things we need for a big SE winter event. That PV low does lift out quicker then I would like though, if that can hold through day 10 then I like our chances better, otherwise this will be warm rain for us followed by more cold. It's opposite of the last storm. We need a system to kick out quicker than currently modeled, into the cold air, whereas last storm we needed the system to slow down to allow time for the cold to establish itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Yeah, I think it’s def a Miller B pattern. Also, i wouldn't mind a good sleet ZR storm to drop 1-3 inches of slop! Those only hurt when your expecting 15-20" of snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Thanks Grit! Fully expect the storm to be slower to kick out , on today's runs, since we need the opposite! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 7 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: But I think DT said the polar vortex is going to be around Chicago!? That's gotta make for a more southern track! Banana high FTW! Hope so!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 I think it's about time the GFS and EURO give us a nice Clown Map to look at! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 12z NAM is right on track with the 6z GFS in bringing the front through late on the 23rd to early 24th. As I said before, I'm focusing on the shorter/medium range in hope of a cold Christmas Eve and Day. Interested in what the CMC says today. It has not wavered on its idea of a slower frontal passage; hence warm Christmas Eve and Christmas day that starts to cool down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 1 hour ago, Solak said: Christmas Eve/Day. So, you wanna be a weather forecaster? The GFS is quicker and further south with this shortwave while the EC is slower and further north. The uncertainty in the frontal position is easily highlighted by the EC ensemble statistical guidance for high temperatures at RDU on Sunday which have a standard deviation of 7. The warmest ensemble member has a high of 74, the coolest 47, with a mean of 61 and the operational giving a high of 59. Yikes! This tells me there is BIG changes afoot with the pattern one way or the other!! FO SHO! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 I see this thread hitting 300 pages... by Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 1 hour ago, Cold Rain said: No way it snows in Raleigh with that low sitting over the sounds. But the map looks pretty! Yeah eventually folks will learn that unless you live west of I77 in NC you want to see that low at least 100 miles east of Hatteras and moving slowly ENE or even NE.....for me and others east of I-95 150-200 miles would be better...the low needs to reform off Jacksonville Fl and move ENE OTS for something like that clown map posted above to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: I see this thread hitting 300 pages... by Friday Hahahaha... Today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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