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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017

buckeyefan1

By buckeyefan1,
in Southeastern States

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FLweather

FLweather

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Yep. But it's doable this far out. We been tracking next week forever it seems like. But one thing is certain,someone is gonna get a long overriding event between 12/25-12/30. Just hope we can work enough magic to get things to line up over us.

I think so too. ATM hard to prove weather a big amped storm possible or a prolonged Over running storm.  Mulitiple sw over warmer air seem likely

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

Last night's discussion by RAH:

<For Christmas Eve & Day>

Sunday and Monday: As a broad central North American upper-level
trough develops on Sunday and Monday, the cold front across the
eastern CONUS becomes aligned parallel to the upper level flow which
slows the eastward progression of the front. Forecast confidence is
low for Sunday into early Monday as the position of the front will
have significant impact on the sensible weather details including
clouds, precipitation and temperatures. A secondary short wave is
progged to lift through the tough axis on Sunday and Monday giving
the front an eastward surge and potentially leading to a surface
wave developing on the front as it pulls away from the Carolinas.
The GFS is quicker and further south with this shortwave while the
EC is slower and further north. The uncertainty in the frontal
position is easily highlighted by the EC ensemble statistical
guidance for high temperatures at RDU on Sunday which have a
standard deviation of 7. The warmest ensemble member has a high of
74, the coolest 47, with a mean of 61 and the operational giving a
high of 59. Yikes! At this point, following a blend of the EC mean
and WPC guidance seems the most prudent which should lead to a
downward adjustment to temperatures on Sunday and Monday and a more
progressive timing with the precipitation ending by Monday morning.
 

<For late next week>
Tuesday and beyond: Another cold front pushes into the region late
Tuesday with another shot of colder temperatures that persists
through much of the work week. The chilly northwest flow loft should
keep the region dry on Tuesday and Wednesday with a signal for
potentially interesting weather toward the weekend. -Blaes
&&

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Yeah, just eye candy! The ice storm seems like it showing on a lot of models, we will definitely need to watch that timeframe! But it's still 10 days away! :(

I feel like the last two or three years were the apex of our crappy winters.  There have been many long stretches where fantasy cold and snow were nowhere to be found on any long range chart.  At least we’re back to being suckered into Arctic blasts and major winter storms and piling up the snow at 10-15 leads again.  Hopefully, over the next decade, we’ll start seeing a few of these move back into the 5-10 day range and so forth.

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

I feel like the last two or three years were the apex of our crappy winters.  There have been many long stretches where fantasy cold and snow were nowhere to be found on any long range chart.  At least we’re back to being suckered into day Arctic blasts and major winter storms and piling up the snow at 10-15 leads again.  Hopefully, over the next decade, we’ll start seeing a few of these move back into the 5-10 day range and so forth.

It's all about statistics man. Eventually we will get the big storm.  

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mackerel_sky

mackerel_sky

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

I feel like the last two or three years were the apex of our crappy winters.  There have been many long stretches where fantasy cold and snow were nowhere to be found on any long range chart.  At least we’re back to being suckered into Arctic blasts and major winter storms and piling up the snow at 10-15 leads again.  Hopefully, over the next decade, we’ll start seeing a few of these move back into the 5-10 day range and so forth.

I like the 29-31st timeframe! Not wishcasting, but I could see the track getting a little further South, but as it is now, you would get a lot of ZR/IP! 

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

I like the 29-31st timeframe! Not wishcasting, but I could see the track getting a little further South, but as it is now, you would get a lot of ZR/IP! 

I completely agree.  Been on that train for a couple of weeks.  This feels like one of the best windows for a widespread southeast winter storm that we’ve had in a couple of winters.

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Cheeznado

Cheeznado

Posted
Posted

This has finally piqued my interest just a bit- well over half of the 0z GEFS members have snow in the ATL area around NYE, 3 members have over a foot!!! The EPS, which previously had basically no members with snow has a few more now, but still well less than half. It is the type of pattern that could yield more snow and/or ice with cold air dumping in first, then some sort of disturbance coming in from the west. Not jumping on board yet but the trend is interesting, lets see if that continues.

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Shack

Shack

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

This has finally piqued my interest just a bit- well over half of the 0z GEFS members have snow in the ATL area around NYE, 3 members have over a foot!!! The EPS, which previously had basically no members with snow has a few more now, but still well less than half. It is the type of pattern that could yield more snow and/or ice with cold air dumping in first, than some sort of disturbance coming in from the west. Not jumping on board yet but the trend is interesting, lets see if that continues.

Definitely as promising a setup.  New Years weekend in the mountains may be fun.

Thanks for posting, Cheez.

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shahroz98

shahroz98

Posted
Posted
59 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

This has finally piqued my interest just a bit- well over half of the 0z GEFS members have snow in the ATL area around NYE, 3 members have over a foot!!! The EPS, which previously had basically no members with snow has a few more now, but still well less than half. It is the type of pattern that could yield more snow and/or ice with cold air dumping in first, then some sort of disturbance coming in from the west. Not jumping on board yet but the trend is interesting, lets see if that continues.

How do you look at the GEFS ensemble members like that ? Do you go through the runs one by one ?

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

Been a long time since we had a winter storm with the PV shifted over into Newf/Lab with a strong NPac ridge nosing into Greenland.  Thats 2 of the 3 biggest things we need for a big SE winter event.  That PV low does lift out quicker then I would like though, if that can hold through day 10 then I like our chances better, otherwise this will be warm rain for us followed by more cold.

eps_z500a_noram_192.png

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