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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017


buckeyefan1

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19 minutes ago, griteater said:

Interesting Euro run.  Huge Hudson Bay PV with lots of cold spread out west to east...we're on the fringe of it.

Yep, just park one of those 1060 highs in NY or SE Canada, as a wave scoots along the gulf = money! Or a dominant monster high in the plains that overwhelms the whole country, then a 1014 mb low pressure crossing the gulf, blamo 1988 redux!

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33 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Yep, just park one of those 1060 highs in NY or SE Canada, as a wave scoots along the gulf = money! Or a dominant monster high in the plains that overwhelms the whole country, then a 1014 mb low pressure crossing the gulf, blamo 1988 redux!

1060? that would be sub zero and dry here. Maybe snow in the islands. Just give me 1040 and I'll call it a day. 

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I am entering a "phone weather" period from now until after Christmas. My phone will let me know if something major is about to pop a day or two ahead of time. That's all the warning I need. No maps, no models. This Christmas I'm going to just enjoy the holiday and the real weather instead of obsessing over what may be or could have been. Ho, ho ho!!

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4 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

Hey, we are under a marginal risk for flash flooding on Wednesday, I'll take it! Still need a lot of warm rain! Im glad it's looking like parts of GA getting snow on Christmas Day ! As long as some one in the south gets a white Christmas, and it's not NC / SC , I'm good with that! I don't care if it doesn't snow all winter imby! ;)

Yes Pack, I'm all aboard the 88 redux

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(but) My grid forecast:

Saturday Night
A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 48. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Sunday
A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 60. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Sunday Night
A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 48. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Christmas Day
A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 60. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Then from RAH (...pull for GFS):

Markedly different solutions for the following system for the
weekend result in very different forecast scenarios as a cold
front
approaches the area from the west with a parent high over the Great
Lakes. The differences are not in the type of the system, but rather
on how far east the
front will make it before stalling out. Current
GFS output shows the front moving all the way through the area by
Saturday night before retrograding back over the forecast area by
late Sunday and remaining overhead through Monday night. The
ECMWF
solution on the other hand keeps the front to our west throughout
the forecast period, keep central
NC in the warm sector but also
quite a bit drier as the bulk of the precipitation stays west of the

CWA. For now have favored this slower timing and therefore keep
temperatures and dewpoints on the higher end of the spectrum and

pops on the lower end. This forecast is likely to change throughout
the week until models get a better grasp on the progression of the

front. Temps well above normal, upper 50s to upper 60s in spots.
Lows in the mid 40s to near 50 degrees.

 

 

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