WarmNose Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Are we not going to talk about how this bomb makes a bee-line straight at a pair of 1045+ HP's? Yeah right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 29 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said: lol, is that even possible with a 1043 and a 1034 HP? Just saw your post. Beat me to it. That thing would be so suppressed it would probably end up in South America Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 3 minutes ago, WarmNose said: Are we not going to talk about how this bomb makes a bee-line straight at a pair of 1045+ HP's? Yeah right I think JetStreamRider was referring to it in his/her post. Although I am intensely interested in the weather I have not had much of an opportunity to learn about synoptic scale meteorology. I gather from you guys' post that storm systems do not generally go towards high pressure zones? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 35 minutes ago, CaryWx said: 1060 HP! Do Polar Bears come with that? For one who is learning, it appears from you guys' comments that 1060 hPa is exceptional. Can someone give me an idea of relative scale on cold air mass MSLP. Say something indicative of a nice 4 F cool day vs January 1985? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 4 hours ago, cbmclean said: For one who is learning, it appears from you guys' comments that 1060 hPa is exceptional. Can someone give me an idea of relative scale on cold air mass MSLP. Say something indicative of a nice 4 F cool day vs January 1985? The high that gave the January 1985 episode was 1048, so.... http://www.weather.gov/mhx/Jan211985EventReview Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 6z GFS continues to show the colder solution for Christmas Eve/Day. High temps look to be in the 40s for a large part of the SE on the 24th and then only in the 30s for the 25th. That will make it feel like Christmas. Still very little snow; but just two runs earlier we were still looking at 60s for highs. There could be something that pops at the last minute. The 0z and 6z try to get something going but it looks more like cold chasing precip; which we all know how that tends to work out. But still something for us to keep an eye on in the coming days. 24 hour snowfall for 6z on the 26th: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Man, that GFS run this morning!! Possible CAD on the 29th and devastating Jan 3rd ice storm @ hour 384! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 6z nam showing the possibility of some flakes or mix near the NC/VA during the day of the 21st. Quick moving system limited moisture. Not the best environment for CAA but there is a modest ridge axis to north with a northerly wind. Even looking at older runs temps look marginal and will be mainly moisture/rate dependent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 20 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Man, that GFS run this morning!! Possible CAD on the 29th and devastating Jan 3rd ice storm @ hour 384! I definitely like seeing the possibilities but we know how the GFS has been performing lately. Right now I'm just focused (hopeful for) on getting a cold Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 15 minutes ago, FLweather said: 6z nam showing the possibility of some flakes or mix near the NC/VA during the day of the 21st. Quick moving system limited moisture. Not the best environment for CAA but there is a modest ridge axis to north with a northerly wind. Even looking at older runs temps look marginal and will be mainly moisture/rate dependent. A weak CAD comes in for that time period. Hopefully that will temper (down) the advertised warm week for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Huge differences at h5 between GFS/Nam. Flatter "death ridge" and stronger system in the NW. Not as progressive as GFS. This is for Christmas day system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 So just as I'm talking about a colder look on the GFS, the CMC from last night still has 60s and 70s for large area of the SE. Come on GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 0z Euro has the dreaded 60s and 70s Christmas Eve and Day... but it does have a nice ice event a few days after Christmas... hopefully we will see the 12z swing to a colder Christmas today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 51 minutes ago, FallsLake said: A weak CAD comes in for that time period. Hopefully that will temper (down) the advertised warm week for some. Something to watch for. Interesting soundings out of Roxboro NC. Marginal 850 temps and BL temps. Pretty close to a snow sounding. Warm nose @ same time frame @ 800-700mb for Durham. Pretty close to an all sleet sounding. First sounding is Roxboro 2nd is Durham. Other than that expect wild flucations on the models still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Went to bed last night with nothing interesting in the next week or so. Looked at my I Phone this morning when I woke up and it shows a snowflake (No not a Tarheel fan) for next Wednesday. Pattern reminds me a lot of the couple of weeks leading up to the January 87 event. Rainy and warm the week before. Monster high coming down from the Dakotas the following week with a Miller crossing northern Florida on the heels of a strong cold front. GSP never mentioned the possibility of a snowstorm until 36 hours before the event. After 10" of snow it was brutally cold for weeks. Would love to see one more storm like that one in my lifetime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 44 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: 0z Euro has the dreaded 60s and 70s Christmas Eve and Day... but it does have a nice ice event a few days after Christmas... hopefully we will see the 12z swing to a colder Christmas today. Yeah, we need to think the GFS is an outlier right now. Hope not, but with most models still showing the warmer scenario you have to lean towards them (for now). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 44 minutes ago, FLweather said: Something to watch for. Interesting soundings out of Roxboro NC. Marginal 850 temps and BL temps. Pretty close to a snow sounding. Warm nose @ same time frame @ 800-700mb for Durham. Pretty close to an all sleet sounding. First sounding is Roxboro 2nd is Durham. Other than that expect wild flucations on the models still. Could be... Here's the 6z NAM showing a little love for folks on the NC / Virginia line: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 8 hours ago, Jet Stream Rider said: That is odd - you would think we would have suppression with that kind of double barreled high pressure, not a massive Lakes cutter slp. Don't kid yourself. It can and of course it will. Happens all the time. It will split it right in half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 17 minutes ago, FallsLake said: Yeah, we need to think the GFS is an outlier right now. Hope not, but with most models still showing the warmer scenario you have to lean towards them (for now). Nah, you've got the Canadian on your side , if you like cold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 I was going to do an index thing this morning, but since they all looked like barf, I changed my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 5 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: I was going to do an index thing this morning, but since they all looked like barf, I changed my mind. We don't need to see the stinking images! The cold is coming, then the snow and ice! Prepare for glory, RAH will look like a winter wonderland by the first week of January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 9 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: I was going to do an index thing this morning, but since they all looked like barf, I changed my mind. EPO is on our side. That has saved us in years past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Maybe a sign that pattern isn't what LR models are making it out to be? free image storage sites Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 11 minutes ago, FallsLake said: EPO is on our side. That has saved us in years past. It may keep us from torching, but it seems like when we have to rely solely on the EPO, we end up with sloppy winter weather events most of the time. Not saying we can't snow, but we get more of those ice to rain events or mixed back coastal transfer things. But that's infinitely better than nothing, so we'll take what we can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 14 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: We don't need to see the stinking images! The cold is coming, then the snow and ice! Prepare for glory, RAH will look like a winter wonderland by the first week of January Like a Mack and Pack winter wonderland, where the landscape shimmers with the majestic brilliance of fresh fallen preemergent? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 18 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: We don't need to see the stinking images! The cold is coming, then the snow and ice! Prepare for glory, RAH will look like a winter wonderland by the first week of January Exactly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 ^^^Lol...I'm with Mack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 7 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Like a Mack and Pack winter wonderland, where the landscape shimmers with the majestic brilliance of fresh fallen preemergent? Or rain! That puts a certain shiny look on outdoor decorations! I need rain still, so I'm looking forward to the warm, wet well coming up and 3" of rain by Thursday! Then I'm ready for Arctic- geddon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 6z GFS looked nice. Three threats by New Year’s Day. I’m hopeful we can build some momentum with today’s runs. 0z Euro also had an ice storm post Christmas. Also, remember when we kept whining to the banter thread? I do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 21 hours ago, NCSNOW said: RDU has been at or below normal for 10 straight days. Streak could possibly end today, definitely MON -WED this week. -2.1 so far for December. Should see some much below normal week of Christmas as the month winds down and avg a tick below normal for the second month in a row. "Bet the streak" lol Yesterday made it 11 straight. Clouds are hanging tough today. Don't see how the streak survives next 2-3 days in addition to probably next Sun. Well see , but it's been a good run and enjoyable to not be getting mosquitoe bites like the past 2 Decembers. -2.2 and despite the break from the Cold this week, we will end Up BN for second month in a row, thanks to the pipe busting Cold coming down next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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